Mayan Storyline War

[snip]

I'd rather this not turn into a functional nothingburger conflict if it's going to happen. Let's ether go for a full war senario or maintain the status quo.

[TacCovert4]

Well, thinking as the mayans,  they either go full blitz.  Or they start off with a probe to see if there's going to be a both feet response from the major powers, especially Rome and wilno, before committing to a major operation.  Given the terrain, Japanese troops,  and technologies at play, a blitz that can outrun response is unlikely. 

How about a slow burn early, pushing as hard as they can but not so full send that they couldn't back out.....followed by a full send into the grinder that a 1920s jungle fight would be.

[Kaiser Kirk]

So I've sent the stuff I've been working on to Snip for his 'Mod-Emeritus' look over.  It's rather long, so may take him a bit.
Whatever survives that process I'll show you guys for general acceptance / rejection.

As for the Mayan War.
There are several options.

A) I strongly feel that slowly escalating skirmishes followed by a invasion would be the worst strategic choice for the Maya in initiating a war.
Strategically, the Japanese presence is a severe problem, as their Southern defenses are weaker, and a Second Front by Japan would be undesirable.
So they most definitely should want to conquer it.

I'd be interesting in counterviews as why that wouldn't be the Mayan point of view.

In a conflict, The Mayans can not expect to maintain sea control long term, both Japan and the Aztec have larger navies, and seem to cooperate.
Their navy can be potent as a 'fleet in being' and interdicting the SLOC. I'm sure Jeftge has some ideas on that.
The longer the war, the more attrition would reduce their navy and the worse the situation.

So the Mayan goal would be to try to Eject Japan from Central America before the two can shove sufficient reinforcements in to stop them.
A long build up to the war, giving the two powers time to prepare and then reinforce, is very undesirable, and actually counter to what they would want.

So, if there is to be a gamed out war, a major thrust at their primary target should be expected.

B) The landwar can be simple skirmishes, and be pure storyline. There would not be a major invasion.
There may be storyline elements. Minor ones can be storyline, and would only only 'cost' mutually agreeable minor units, or 'handwaved' ones like the TB sunk by Wilno.
If Jefgte and the player (s) can agree on a scenario, I could game out a larger meeting engagement style battle could be gamed out.

C) There could be a war in the colonies, not involving the Aztec/ Japanese.
Once the Mayans are at war with one larger power, they are not likely to open a fresh front and  engage in a fresh war.
While a Japanese invasion of Venezuela would be a long and bloody affair, it is also quite secondary to their main interest- Central America,
so if Japan/Aztecs want to tie up forces there, that would make an Mayan thrust at Central America more attractive and worthwhile.


As for crushing the Maya, the players are free to make any decision they want.
It would certainly be interesting to see a joint Aztec-Roman force attacking the Mayan North, while Japanese-Wilno troops pushed into South Maya, as more Wilno troops made opposed landings.
Certainly the stories so far don't set the scene for that effort.

Without it, while I expect folks could sink the fleet and  strip the colonies off, it would take immense coordinated effort to take their homeland, as no one player has sufficient deployment strength. However, as the Mayan BP are not all being used, they could rebuild at a decent pace.

[snip]

To me, option A is the only way the Mayans would actually start a conflict. C requires one of the other involved powers to jump on elsewhere. B is the aforementioned nothingburger. A is the option which puts the IC ball in the players court as an event, which is good for people interacting.

[TacCovert4]

I see the Mayans as both wanting to confirm the non-interest of the two great powers that are potential actors......and prepping for an all-out assault on Central America.  I wouldn't say a slow escalation.  I'd see maybe some small border incursions to probe the reaction by nations that aren't Japan....and relying on the fact that japan redeploying large numbers will take significant time.  Followed by an all out assault to try to gain their war aims, and hopefully give them a wave they can ride to the canal, before the major powers that haven't shown more than a minor response can gear up.

In a lot of ways, the SEALOC don't have to be contested heavily in the Caribbean.  Almost all of the Japanese reinforcements, and the best route for Aztec reinforcements, is via the Pacific route....and that's where the Mayans don't have to fight multiple nations.  Also, even if the small incursions take place in 23-2 and the main invasion happens in 24-1, it doesn't appreciably change what CAN be deployed by their enemies there.  I'd almost see a rebalance of the Mayan fleet around the cape to create parity in the Pacific with what they know the Aztec PacFlt is and what they anticipate available Japanese fleet elements would be.  Steaming a major Japanese battle squadron from their home theater around to support a major landing will take months.

[The Rock Doctor]

Assuming the Mayans rolled up Japanese and Union defences and reached the canal zone, they will not have won a war. 

They would be in the position of, say, Argentina in early April 1982, or Iraq in the fall of 1990.

While they could naturally make the same assumptions that Galtieri or Saddam made with respect to the fortitude of their opponents, they might also recognize that the Japanese, Aztecs, and Union all have considerable means at their disposal - even without Costa Rica or the Canal Zone - to make life miserable for the People's Republic for a long time afterward.

To Tac's point:  If Maya vacates the Caribbean to concentrate in the Pacific, it means they can't contest Union naval activity in a scenario that pulls the Union into the conflict.

[Desertfox]

The supply routes in Central America are going to be terrible and throwing even more units in won't make it any better, I'd argue that we can ignore the land war and simply focus on the naval actions, whoever controls the seas will be able to move supplies up and down the coast and that will ultimately decide the war.

[Jefgte]

The Pacific Mayan Fleet represents 35% of the total Fleet.
The Atlantic Fleet is larger because the colonies Alabama & Venezuela must be protected.

In fact, the Maya don't really want war against the Aztecs, border skirmishes are enough.
The enemy is Japan. The aim of the war is to drive the Japanese out of Costa Rica and Venezuela.

1 - The Mayan Fleet will neutralize the Japanese Caribbean and Galapagos fleet.

2 - If the war against the Aztecs is inevitable, a Port Arthur 1904 style attack is desirable in order to neutralize 1 or 2 Aztec BBs for the duration of the war. So, the power of the 2 fleets (Azteque & Maya) will be less unbalanced in the Caribbean, and promises a great battle  :)

3 - An entry into the war of the Union will sound the death knell of this war (Suez 1956 - URSS & USA).

4 - What if Japanese Home Fleet come to Costa Rica ?

[TacCovert4]

Good points all round.

I might argue that while the mayans have 1st fleet to deal with the Caribbean,  absent other powers, they probably know that even crushing the aztecs in the Caribbean is not a simple attempt.  The tonnage difference isn't massive,  but the RAN lost most units in 1914, so the RAN is basically a 10 year old fleet built with modern technologies and not saddled with old ships.   

If Rome or wilno jumps in, their fleet in the Caribbean is hopelessly,  hilariously,  outgunned.   Their bet is to shift units that can circumnavigate to the pacific and bring their chances of blocking the sealoc to reinforce there.  In the Caribbean an Aztec resupply has to run the straits.   In the pacific its shorter and safer......except 2nd fleet has 1 battleship only.

[Kaiser Kirk]

My preference is for you guys to do most of the contemplating.

I will ask a couple questions c

- Elaborate on why escalating skirmishing to see reactions is desirable from the Mayan POV.

- I can see minor probing attacks in South America as being diversionary. But that's it.

-  It is quite likely there HAS been skirmishing since Japan took custody.
For one thing, several turns have passed since this conflict was raised as an option.
Based on Japanese forces at the beginning, Central America has been massively reinforced. Given the current OOB, they have more troops in Central America than in many the home islands. Which would be unwise if China or the Horde was 'active'.

- I would characterize the Naval skirmishes as possibly falling in that 'probe for reaction' category.   Hasn't worked out well from the Mayan POV.

  - Do folks think there a serious chance increased low level conflicts have a chance to Make Rome, Wilno, Azteca and Japan think better of the Maya and move to de-escalate by removing forces?

  - If the Mayans only worried about increased skirmishing against Japan, is it folks considered opinion that a powers most likely reaction to increased skirmishing is :
      - issue warnings but otherwise nothing (see above about garrison)
      - maybe reinforce and so make make conquest more difficult-
      - act as if a real attack is coming and

- What about increased low level conflicts which are false flag ? "Aztec warriors" scouting Cuba...   
- or...a Mayan landing in Vancouver as a distraction :)

- I think the presumption of the Mayans seizing the Canal is just speculation. It is not entirely out of the question, but Wilno is powerful foe to add. The question of how much provocation Wilno would take I think has been answered by Wilno opening fire and sinking a Mayan TB, and then sending reinforcements.

However, there is a difference between that and sending 20 land units to fight to return territory to Japan. I would think that- at least as long as Wilno is Neutral, Maya will save that fight for later.

- I think Tac has a good point, as the Aztec fleet is all new and shiny.
Of course if Maya gets stomped, their next fleet will be too.

Ok, I'll let you all get back to talking.

[TacCovert4]

Points taken.  The skirmishing has happened.  Either in 23-5, or 24-1 is when the Mayans have to make their move or resign themselves to being trapped between foes.

I'm not sure how a Port Arthur-Pearl Harbor style attack on Veracruz would work, given that the Aztec ports have fortifications and a relatively notable series of defenses in place.  I think that their best bet is to go for broke on the ground and hope their fleet can hold off reinforcements until they can claim victory.....or even possibly knock the Japanese out of the war and snag the canal before Wilno can reinforce from across the sea.

Notable is that the Roman presence got somewhat more substantial but not massively in response to provokation.  And while the Wilno force got stronger, it was already overwhelming, so it's not like they piled on light forces.

I'd anticipate that the Mayans might try for a blocking-fleet engagement in the Pacific, but commit to hit and run attacks in the Caribbean to avoid letting their notably smaller battleline get ripped to shreds.

As far as Mayan moves to gauge reactions, I'd say that their moves right now would probably be more to gauge speed of response, doing some innocuous stuff in the Caribbean to see how Wilno and Rome react.   Nothing aggressive.  Just sort of the inverse of what's being done to them, Freedom of Navigation exercises, lightly escorted convoys to Alabama and Venezuela.  Putting ships out there to see if they're heavily shadowed or mostly ignored, getting an idea of if the big Euro powers are taking them seriously or just took 'precautions' and left it at that.

As to IC stuff betwixt the powers.....Aztecs and Romans talking about the Texas border area isn't unusual.  And realistically I was remiss to call a conference, that diplomatic stuff would have already happened after each individual incident, hence I removed it.

[Jefgte]

...I'd anticipate that the Mayans might try for a blocking-fleet engagement in the Pacific, but commit to hit and run attacks in the Caribbean to avoid letting their notably smaller battleline get ripped to shreds...

You said smaller.
Aztecs (5BCs + 5BBs - 240,181t)
18x360
64x280
Boardside: 37,015kg


Mayans (18BBs - 233,180t)
36x356
56x280
24x254
Boardside: 54,348kg

The Aztecs chose speed, The Mayans chose guns.

As I have written before:
"Hood overtakes Tennessee and Tennessee sinks Hood".

[Desertfox]

Hehehe, the six Japanese 14" gunned ships can toss 41,220kg downrange...

[TacCovert4]

...I'd anticipate that the Mayans might try for a blocking-fleet engagement in the Pacific, but commit to hit and run attacks in the Caribbean to avoid letting their notably smaller battleline get ripped to shreds...

You said smaller.
Aztecs (5BCs + 5BBs - 240,181t)
18x360
64x280
Boardside: 37,015kg


Mayans (18BBs - 233,180t)
36x356
56x280
24x254
Boardside: 54,348kg

The Aztecs chose speed, The Mayans chose guns.

As I have written before:
"Hood overtakes Tennessee and Tennessee sinks Hood".

I was meaning if them vs Rome or wilno.    Yes, they have the tonnage on me

Of course a lot of their ships have both few guns and are pretty small.  And the FC makes a difference

[Jefgte]

...And the FC makes a difference

The number of targets & the tactic too.