N-verse in the Nuclear Age

[Desertfox]

My final for my Nuclear Policy class involved setting up an Ukrainian nuclear program and it got me thinking. How would N-verse deal with nukes? I figure we could do a fun exercise imagining what our nations would look like in that environment. So just for fun...

Imagine its 50 years in the future (1970!) surprisingly the N-verse political environment and geography has not changed one bit. Nuclear energy and weapons have obviously taken a much different path than OTL, but somehow also end up in the same place. Assuming every country has the capability for a mid-size nuclear program (think UK, France, China), how would your nation deal with a nuclear world? Do they go the nuclear route or not? And if they do build as much as possible (say 300 nukes) or limit to a minimal deterrent strategy (say 50?)?

***

My thoughts on Japan. Japan has a massive hostile land neighbor that very likely has some sort of nuclear program (first nuke in OTL in 1964) in China. There is a definite need for nuclear deterrence; however, China can also absorb quite a bit if nuclear strikes. China also has a lot of important coastal targets plus a large interior so it is quite a challenge. Meanwhile, you have both the Japanese Navy and Army (Air Force) fighting over resources, and the lack of land area for land-based ICBMs. Therefore, Japan would have an active and diverse nuclear program aimed at both strategic strikes to deter China as well as tactical weapons capable of dealing with an invasion fleet.

The nuclear forces would include:
300 nuclear warheads, split 50/50 between strategic (~300kt) and tactical (~50kt) sizes.
4-8 SSBNs (George Washington) with 12-16 SLBMs  (Polaris) - the primary strategic retaliatory force capable of hitting the Chinese interior
~100 medium bombers (B-66) and tactical strike aircraft (F-101) with gravity bombs (B-61) - the Army's strategic and tactical contribution, capable of hitting Chinese coastal targets
4 conventional aircraft carriers with tactical strike aircraft (A-4) with gravity bombs (B-61) - Navy's tactical strike capability
~20 submarines with nuclear torpedoes and SUBROC - Navy's anti-shipping capability + limited strike against coastal targets

 

[Jefgte]

Byzantium will be satisfied with about fifteen SSBN - 12 to 16 Polaris.
It will be pure deterrence.

=> "If you attack me, even though I'm dead, I can still kill you."

[The Rock Doctor]

Ooh, interesting topic.

Alright, so assuming existing geopolitics are frozen - which I'm taking to mean "still have the overseas territories in some capacity", the following are candidates for Vilnius Union targeting:

Major physical neighbours of the homeland:

-The Golden Horde, obviously.
-Rome
-Northern Kingdom

Minor physical neighbours of the homeland, or any neighbour of the colonies:

-Parthia
-Byzantium
-Iberia
-Five Guys
-Incans
-Mayans
-Japanese
-Aztecs
-Berbers
-Ethiopians

Development

Well the Union is wealthy and has a lot of smart people so that shouldn't be a huge challenge.

Eastern Germany appears to be the most likely source of uranium, along with limited resources in Sweden, Florida, and maybe South America. 

I don't immediately feel like the Union has a great location for nuke testing.  Maybe an isolated island in the Azores?

Forces

-I mean the Air Force is right there and it's going to have a mix of strategic and tactical devices that can be delivered by air to our valued neighbours.  This probably includes detachments in the overseas territories.  There's probably been development of nuclear-tipped anti-air missiles even though I personally think the idea is dumb.

-On land, I'd expect some silo'ed ICBMs for global nuking needs.  Probably a number of tactical weapons on IRBMs, SRBMs, and in artillery, particularly in support of the border with the Golden Horde.  There's possibility of an ICBM field in the Americas somewhere - the idea being that it's harder to wipe out if the Union is attacked by an immediate neighbour in Eurasia.  Probably limited tactical device deployment overseas - only if there's a location where the local conventional force-balance is so out of whack that it might be considered a necessary deterrent.

-At sea, the carriers are going to have at least a tactical delivery ability.  Maybe strategic if they're big enough.  Would also expect SUBROC capabilities, as Foxy notes.  Heavy artillery shells are perhaps unlikely with a limited budget but it depends on what surface gunnery platforms are still in service, if any.

-SSBNs...are logical in a way, but basing is a question.  Basing from Europe and running out into the Atlantic means that there's only two access routes and enemies can station their own SSNs there to try and pick up/pick off my boomers.  A permanent base in the Americas reduces this risk.

-Alternately, the Union could investigate the development of a bastion approach in part or all of the Baltic.  Naval access is quite constrained so a boomer in the Baltic is (probably) safe.  Air access is not impossible, but the sea is surrounded by Union airspace and the kind of aircraft that can penetrate to the Baltic from adjacent nations are not the kind of aircraft you'd expect to see hunting submarines. 

[Kaiser Kirk]

Major Neighbors :
Golden Horde  : 600 years of intermittent warfare, #1 army
Byzantium : 1900 years of intermittent warfare, top 5 army/navy
Rajasthan : scattered wars, defensible front, powerful army,

Minor Neighbors :
Everyone?

Nukes or No Nukes ?
With three major land powers next door, and a sprawling overseas nation,
Parthia would want Nukes.

By the 1970s, the radiation negatives are known.
So they are not useful for capturing things you want to use (outside of Neutron).
Battlefield nukes to stop overwhelming floods of foes through limited strategic passes make sense for both Byzantium and Rajasthan.
There are no such passes to funnel the Horde's masses, so being able to turn 50 Horde cities into rubble seems a pretty good deterrent.

So more 50 than the 300. Though there could be more like 30-50 'city buster' and then 100 'battleground' scattered about with 20-30 each to West/North/East/Maritime commands


Resources :
Parthia would have uranium from several sources - at the very least they hold the Belgian Congo Katanga province the US got yellow cake from.

Testing...hey I have Nevada AND part of the Kalahari...I probably have Fiji and Bikini too. I'll be fine.

Deployment
For the Big Booms- Silos in the desert outside of Yazd and on SSBNs.
For the tactical concepts, air force and carriers would be more likely.
There may be some Nuclear artillery shells.

[Desertfox]

I find it interesting that while we all have decided on SSBNs these SSBNs will very likely be very different. Unlike Japan, all of you lack safe easy routes to open ocean patrol areas, but at the same time you all have very secure internal waters. We could see a new class of small littoral SSBNs that might not even have defensive weapons, might not even need nuclear power since snorkeling would be a lot safer to do. I could even see underwater docking stations where the subs could chill and receive electric power and comms. 

[The Rock Doctor]

I suspect there's enough traffic in the Baltic that snorkeling could be risky over the long term.

On the other hand, the need for nuclear reactors is likely reduced if one's just slipping twenty miles offshore and then diving so nobody can see you, rather than taking a slow-motion cruise into the mid-Atlantic for six months.

[Kaiser Kirk]

Note : Parthia has safe routes to the open ocean. And command of many of the strategic straits.

For me,
Part of that is the date. +50 years means SSBNs are a viable concept.

Part of it is also my concept of what missiles I would likely have.
We are not at the scale of the US or Russia.
So France/Britain are better models.
A short-medium range BM is evidentially easier to develop than an ICBM.
While MBMs outside central Yazd could suffice for the 3 neighbors, an SSBN would be needed to take it elsewhere securely.

Further, for deterrence purposes, something thats rather difficult to first strike is more effective.
One can manage that with lots and lots of silos, or scattered silos, or mobile missiles, but they all have their own problems with command/control/security.
The cost/burden of a SAC 24/7 flying deterrence is prohibitive I think. The SSBNs are flexible but secure.

[Desertfox]

I'd just be worried about Rajastani or Byzantium attack subs sitting of Oman, while if you stick them in the Caspian Sea no one can realistically get to them. Off course if you base them in say San Fransisco or Cape Town, that issue goes away (but other issues pop up).

[Kaiser Kirk]

The base at Tis in Chabahar bay is midway between Hormuz and India, so clear of easy interdiction.
Parthia's expansion always aimed at good arable land, and good harbors. The latter means
plenty of potential bases. Cape Town and SF are two, but there are plenty of good deep harbors in Parthian provinces.
And by 1970, I'll have had the money and time to build them out !

[The Rock Doctor]

I mean, don't count your chickens, Kirk, you might not.

But the Fox is right about bastions.  I've got the Baltic.  Jef's got the Black Sea, Kirk's got the Caspian and the Persian Parthian Gulf.

ICBM development really seems premised on the question of "How badly can I trash the Golden Horde without them?"

[Kaiser Kirk]

Would have been interesting if the Golden Horde had China too, replicating the Mongol Empire
for even greater population and larger land armies :)

For 4 of us, that's a long land border. Of course the Horde is limited by deployment points too.

[Desertfox]

I got enough issues as it is with China without them being twice as large... Not having a land border with the Golden Horde is nice, I just need a handful of tactical anti-shipping nukes to deal with them.

Thinking about it, I'm not sure we would even have any ICBM development (RIP space programs). You guys can hold anyone close by at risk with shorter range missiles. Only the Aztecs could realistically have a need for ICBMs to reach Rome.

[TacCovert4]

The Sultanate is in a weird position, having both the Romans and the Mayans as definite 'threat' nations, even if our relationship with Rome has warmed substantially.  Parthia is a 'threat' as well, though far less of one with even warmer relations, we sort of have a US/Canada thing going on along our mutual borders. 

Considering that the Sultanate has large tracts of land in the plains and high desert, but those are also within reach of Roman tactical aircraft at this point, we would probably go with Mobile land-based missiles, with TELs able to maneuver.  Our ICBM force would likely be fleet based in the Pacific, as it would make it pretty immune to Roman vessels that don't have any bases in that ocean, and the Mayans really don't have a viable way to hunt down our subs in the Pacific.  I could actually see an absence of land-based silos, as those naturally make the area a target, and our secure homeland areas are becoming very densely populated and are hot and humid, both are inadvisable for silo-based missiles.

[The Rock Doctor]

I'm going to have my manned space program, Mr. Fox, thank you very much.

[Kaiser Kirk]

The Space Race I really hadn't thought about.
One of the appealing things of the ancient Zoroastrian faith is it apparently valued knowledge.
So science for science's sake seems appropriate.
Which means Parthia might be part of that race.