Butterfly tracking

[The Rock Doctor]

Given that we have a POD of 1875 and a stronger Ottoman Empire, I figure a thread is in order to clarify how history could/will proceed afterward.

Note:  OTL = our timeline.  NTL = Navalism timeline.

Let's start in...

Africa

Libya

Libya is easy; in both timelines, it's under direct Ottoman rule.  The historical Italian invasion isn't until 1912.

Tunisia

OTL:  Nominally an independent state under Ottoman suzerainty, it spent a lot on modernization, couldn't handle the debts, and was occupied by France in 1881.

NTL:  The map shows it as Ottoman.  An explanation is that a stronger Ottoman Empire is able to re-assert direct control, while taking on debts owed to France.  France accepts this arrangement, with a level of enthusiasm to be determined by Jefgte.

Egypt/Sudan/Eritrea

OTL:  Egyptians sell their share of Suez Canal to Britain in 1875.  Egyptian debt and a revolt by its military leads to British intervention and occupation, 1882.  Mahdi revolt gears up in 1883; early Egyptian incompetence lets it grow into a big deal.  British end up in Sudan.  Fearing a power vacuum in Eritrea due to Egyptian military failures, the British encourage Italy to take Eritrea, which formally happens in 1885.

Proposed NTL:  Historically, both the Khedive of Egypt and the rebelling army sought Ottoman support, but the sultan waffled.  Here, he doesn't.  He sends in troops to back the khedive, who retains his title but finds himself surrounded by Ottoman advisors and with decision-making power.

There is fighting; Europeans flee Cairo.  The Brits mutter and make demonstrations at sea, but no local side antagonizes them by actually impairing access to Suez.  After suppressing the rebels, the Ottomans take more control over Egypt, though the ruler remains "Khedive".  European influence/control is much diminished.

A year later (1883), the Ottomans are still rebuilding the Egyptian army, so an regular Ottoman force is sent to deal with the Mahdis. Being competently led and equipped, they slaughter the spear/sword-armed Mahdists and stomp out the rebellion before it really gets going.  Ottoman control over Sudan is asserted.  Britain never gets involved.

With a less turbulent situation in Egypt/Sudan, the Brits and Italians have less traction to set up Italian Eritrea.  The Ottomans re-assert control.  That said, I'm open to the Italians having a small area around Assab, in southeastern-most Eritrea since they did start settling the area in 1881, before the Ottomans start getting active.

[The Rock Doctor]

Red Sea

Iraq/Mesopotamia

This is under direct Ottoman rule both historically and here, so no problems.

Qatar

Nominally under Ottoman rule in OTL, it can be a little more directly controlled here.  No problems.

Kuwait

Historically, Kuwait turned into a British puppet in 1899, after the latest local ruler got tired of the Ottomans waffling on support for him (Ottoman waffling seems to be a recurring theme historically). 

In NTL, it is easy to assume that the Ottomans are more decisive at backing whoever's in charge in Kuwait at the time, and thereby retain at least nominal control over the place.

UAE, Bahrain

In OTL, both are British puppets.

In NTL, I'm actually not seeing much opportunity for the Ottomans to have acquired control of these places.  I'm inclined to suggest making them NPC or British territory.  They'll have no economic significance for decades anyway.

Edit:  These are, now, indeed British puppets.

Saudi Arabia

OTL, the Saudis and the Rashidis went back and forth fighting for the place.  From 1891 onward, the Ottoman-backed Rashidis hold the upper hand until the Sauds stage a comeback in the 1900s. 

[The Rock Doctor]

Palestine/Israel, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon

Under Ottoman control in both timelines.

Cyprus

In OTL, the Brits gained control of Cyprus in return for their support of the Turks at the 1878 Congress of Berlin. 

In NTL, the Congress of Berlin either isn't happening, or is quite different on account of the different European situation in the late 1870s.  Britain wanted the place to serve as an outpost guarding Suez, though the Ottomans are the only power with Cyprus and the canal.

I guess we may want to leave this one until we sort out the situation in the Balkans.

Anatolia/Turkey

OTL saw a period of constitutional monarchy between 1876 and 1878, when the sultan of the time cut if off, citing the war with Russia as an excuse.  The OTL representation was multi-ethnic/religious, but only extended to those areas of the empire under direct Ottoman control.  Quasi-autonomous areas like Egypt don't seem to be a part of this.

In NTL, I think the 1875 war with AH delays the establishment of this governance, but when the war ends in 1877 or so, the reforms are put in to effect and stay in effect.  The Ottoman Empire is, then, a consitutional monarchy with a bicameral parliament. 

I may add representation from other areas of the empire, such as the Balkans, depending on the NTL state of Ottoman control.

[Darman]

OTL:  Egyptians sell their share of Suez Canal to Britain in 1875.  Egyptian debt and a revolt by its military leads to British intervention and occupation, 1882.  Mahdi revolt gears up in 1883; early Egyptian incompetence lets it grow into a big deal.  British end up in Sudan.  Fearing a power vacuum in Eritrea due to Egyptian military failures, the British encourage Italy to take Eritrea, which formally happens in 1885.

Proposed NTL:  Historically, both the Khedive of Egypt and the rebelling army sought Ottoman support, but the sultan waffled.  Here, he doesn't.  He sends in troops to back the khedive, who retains his title but finds himself surrounded by Ottoman advisors and with decision-making power.

There is fighting; Europeans flee Cairo.  The Brits mutter and make demonstrations at sea, but no local side antagonizes them by actually impairing access to Suez.  After suppressing the rebels, the Ottomans take more control over Egypt, though the ruler remains "Khedive".  European influence/control is much diminished.

Presented with a strong opposing force in Egypt in 1882, the British government determines that it is not worth intervening on the side of the rebels and provides moral (and possibly limited material) support to Ottoman forces fighting against the Khedive.  The British only want to secure access to the Suez, and the Ottoman government appears to be the better horse to wager on. 

[Logi]

Pacific

Korea/Taiwan

In OTL, Korea was moved into the Japanese sphere of influence following the war whilst formally retaining it's independence. Taiwan was taken in the last actions of the war.

In NTL, Taiwan is returned to China in exchange for Chinese recognition of Korea as Japanese sovereign territory.


Philippines

In OTL, the American forces in conjunction with the Philippine Revolutionary Army seized the Philippines from Spain. The Philippines and Guam were signed over to America, but the rest of the Spanish islands were later sold to Germany.

In NTL, the Japanese army requires much less support from the Philippine Revolutionary Army (having more secure SLOC and shorter transportation distances). In the ensuring Spanish-Japanese War, Japan takes the Philippines and all the Spanish islands, save for Guam. When Commodore Dewey reaches the Philippines, he is greeted by Japanese forces, and he decides to turn back. All of the Spanish pacific holdings are taken at the end of the war, and no islands are left to be sold.

[snip]

When Commodore Dewey reaches the Philippines, he is greeted by Japanese forces, and he decides to turn back.

I believe my original language was "[Dewey] hops on the nopetrain to screw-this-crap ville and takes Guam to bandage a very bruised ego."

[Jefgte]

Tunisia

OTL:  Nominally an independent state under Ottoman suzerainty, it spent a lot on modernization, couldn't handle the debts, and was occupied by France in 1881.

NTL:  The map shows it as Ottoman.  An explanation is that a stronger Ottoman Empire is able to re-assert direct control, while taking on debts owed to France.  France accepts this arrangement, with a level of enthusiasm to be determined by Jefgte.

Morocco, Algeria & Tunisia are very interresting for France.
Specialy Morroco; France hope to have a naval base in the north, Tanger & military forces near Gibraltar Strait.

Negotiation with "Grand-Vizir Ahmed ben Moussa" could be engaged to buy or give economic avantage (armament) to the Cherifien Sultana.

[The Rock Doctor]

I'm not quite sure I follow your last sentence, Jef.

[Jefgte]

France hope negotiations with Morocco, no powder language.

Jef

[The Rock Doctor]

Oh, okay.  That makes sense.

What do you think about Tunis?  Are you okay with our alternate history having it be Ottoman?

[Kaiser Kirk]

Interesting, I hadn't noticed that the map omits the Spanish possessions south of Gibralter.  Presumably the the cities of Ceuta & Melilla and their coastal holdings are present, but "Spanish Morocco" wasn't won until 1912, after the 2nd Rif war. Tangier always stayed Moroccon.   

[Logi]

Ceuta and Melilla are present, but not apparent on the map.

Tangiers, Bahrain, and UAE have been corrected on the map. Also Cuba is now part of the USA, although Snip will have to explain how that came to be.

[snip]

Also Cuba is now part of the USA, although Snip will have to explain how that came to be.

Right now it is just under military occupation like OTL (abit a much larger one) and is not currently producing any income (unlike that sweet $0.10 I get from Puerto Rico). The 1.5 million population figure for Cuba would only give me $0.15 income. But I have it figured out how I will fold Cuba under the wing of the US, it just all transpires after game start.

[The Rock Doctor]

I did park a bit of stuff in Bahrain/UAE, so that'll get moved somewhere else...

[The Rock Doctor]

Kindly color Qatar back to Ottoman hospital green, please.