Gran Colombian Economic Development Ramblings

[The Rock Doctor]

As the Pacific War inexorably continues, I have spare time in which to consider peripheral issues such as economic development.  It's close enough to infrastructure I'll post the topic here.

Gran Colombia's economy looks like this as of 1/1/08:

Area:	Population:	BP:	IC:	Revenue
Heartland	35.4 million	12.901	90.5	125.9
Caribbean	8.16 million	3	18	26.16
Amazonas del Sur	1 million	0.500	3	4
Total	44.56 million	16.410	111.5	156.06

Each region has its own quirk: 

-Comparing IC to population, the Heartland is quite developed, but the IC : BP ratio suggests that there is room to add industrial capacity in the form of BP.

-In the Caribbean, the IC : BP ratio is as low as it can get, 6:1, so economic development here would have to first target additional IC.

-In Amazonas del Sur, the IC : BP ratio is also 6:1, but it's not practical to increase the IC because, with three IC and one million people, it's among the most industrialized locations on the map.  Economic development here really has to come from an expansion of population, and I can't really rush that much.  I've been stretching the limits of credibility as it is.

H1/08 will see the fractional IC and BP in the Heartland rounded up to the next whole number.  So, what to do after that?  I see three options:

A.  Add 2 BP to the Heartland, for a total of 15, the maximum possible with the current IC levels there.   Time to complete:  ~4-5 years.  End result:  GC has 112 IC and 18.5 BP.

B.  Add 6 IC to the Caribbean, for a total of 24, then add 1 BP.  Time to complete:  ~5 years.  End result:  GC has 118 IC and 17.5 BP

C.  Acquire additional territory, and industrialize it as required.  Time to complete will vary with the population, but I can probably average 1 IC per half-year.  However, I'll have to add other infrastructure such as ports, railways, and what-not.  Not to mention the whole "acquire the additional territory" part.

What would you suggest is the best course for Gran Colombia to pursue?

[Borys]

Ahoj!
A.
B - Adding BP to the Carribean is unwise. It is a peripheral, more susceptible to attack and/or blockade. Let them grow bananas and sugar cane, keeping the BP as "arsenals" - spare parts, maintanance, repairs, small scale manufacture.
C -  I feel a dychotomy (I love 5 dollar words :)) between the image of Gra Colombia you paint -  a more efficient than most Latin American dictatorship, with forced labour, men in straw hats, etc., and the fact that it is the the richest country in the world in terms of GDP per capita. There might be ... residtance, or lack of enthusiasm, for military adventures. The population wants to consume what they have, they are not "hungary", they feel no need for further conquest.

Thinking of it, maybe above a certain threshold further IC should cost not 75$ per pop, but 100$? To represent the slowing down of the grwoth rate of the most developed economies.
?
Borys

[The Rock Doctor]

I had always viewed Gran Colombia as a relatively undeveloped, agricultural economy, and on the old board - prior to the Island Commonwealth acquisition and the rules transition - it more or less was.  The conversion from HBP/MBP to BP ended up making Gran Colombia somewhat more industrialized than I'd really anticipated. 

In story terms, I can paint this in terms of the Darien Canal triggering the industrialization, but consuming much of the output during its construction.  With the project's completion more or less coinciding with the rules transition, I can roleplay that the industrial sector is now available to do other work for Gran Colombia, but the government is still looking through those old yellowish "Banana Republic" eyeglasses.

I think I've built a lack of adventuring into the style of play:  you notice GC hasn't technically started any of the incidents in which it grabbed territory - it just made the most of the opportunity each incident created.  Nowadays, I'm considering the economy of would-be conquests before I pull the trigger:  invading a DKB or Dutch or French colony in the Americas gets me into a big and costly war, but the possible territorial gains add very little to my economy.  Why take the risk?

[P3D]

And then add the also highly industrialized Anahuac possessions. Your GDP per capita jumped about 30% percent with the acquisition of the ICW, and Gran Columbia also had a shitload of MBP in the old forum. I just converted them, you get the results.

You are allowed to rearrange your IC, BP and population after your Caribbean acquisition as you see fit, spread it to make it a bit more realistic. But if you want to play a Backwaterish Banana republic you can voluntarily decrease your IC/BP to any level you see fit.

[The Rock Doctor]

I did have a large number of MBP on the old board.  I had a scheme where I'd build up to a certain number and then start cranking out HBP at a rate of one every year and a half.  Never quite got to go through with it.

I'm not complaining about the economy, far from it.  I'm just saying that the government, as I play it, hasn't quite gotten used to it.

[Borys]

Ahoj!
You are allowed to rearrange your IC, BP and population after your Caribbean acquisition as you see fit, spread it to make it a bit more realistic.

I am not happy with this. This should tak time and money.

E.g. I posses Hong-Kong/Singapore - Malta, with 1,2M people and 9 IC. I just don't buy those 8 IC disspearing from Malta and reappearing in Austria, 6 months later.
Same thing concerning population - I can't move 8M people from Austria to Parana, and combine them with 8 IC from Malta. I imagine this to take several (close to a dozen) years. I can accept the migration of IC as taking place faster - I could move 4 IC from Malta to Parana, but losing the output for 1 or 2 HY, and paying 30-40$ for the move of each IC.

Sorry for rambling ...

Borys

[Desertfox]

If you ask me I would say 'Acquire additional territory' and industrilize it. ;D

Nowadays, I'm considering the economy of would-be conquests before I pull the trigger:  invading a DKB or Dutch or French colony in the Americas gets me into a big and costly war, but the possible territorial gains add very little to my economy.  Why take the risk?

Its not only about the economy. I didn't go to war for that but to safeguard my SLOC. Can GC tolerate foreign controled islands so close to home?

[The Rock Doctor]

The fact that they are foreign-owned does not automatically make them a threat.  They can even be useful in the diplomatic arena, as the owners may not want to do things that might prompt me to invade them.

Strangely, your answer about acquiring territory does not surprise me.   

[Desertfox]

[Jedi mind trick] It does make them a threat, you must invade. [Jedi mind trick]
It would be strange if it DID surprise you. ;D

[Walter]

Desertfox. Your tricks will fail due to one (or more) of the next reasons:
a) You don't have the Force Power: 'Dominate Mind'.
b) You're at too low a level.
c) Your Charisma is too low in order to be able to use it against a high level character (in this case The Rock Doctor).
d) You're not a Jedi (yet).
e) You're not Force-sensitive.
f) You have been severed from the Force.
g) The Force stuff is all a load of bull.
:D

I didn't go to war for that but to safeguard my SLOC.

Sure. That's what they all say. :)

[Borys]

Walter .. I am your Father!

[Desertfox]

Walter!!! It was working! Rocky was slowly being pullled over to the dark side, I could see it... Now Im going to have to use alternate forms of persuasion.

*Ominouss humm*

[Ithekro]

The main problem with owning all the islands is that you potentially lose a lot of potential markets to foreign powers.  While a mercentile economy has some benefits, the faster turn-around time in the Caribbean might work better (though I'd suspect the Europeans and Africans would have to pay a higher price due to their being middlemen).  Also with the increased power, so of your merchants could cut out the middleman and trade directly across the ocean at lower prices in lower quantity, thus not ruining the market for the middlemen often, and keeping the profit rolling in.

This does not work as well in the Pacific at this time due to the near monopoly of the Swiss mercentile nature, and that they are unsetting their neighbors.

[The Rock Doctor]

If I'm understanding you correctly, then as an example, buying up all the French turf in the Caribbean would remove the local entry point into the greater French market.  This may be true, but goods sold to continental France still have to be shipped across the Atlantic. 

It probably wouldn't change the merchantile situation much, as it would be inefficient to load a freighter in Cartagena, sail it to Martinique, offload the cargo to a French ship, and sail that to France.  It would be simpler and more efficient to load either a Colombian or French ship and send it straight across the ocean...okay, that might change the merchantile situation in the sense that I might have more ships operating further away.

a high level character (in this case The Rock Doctor

That's very kind of you, Walter. 

*Ominouss humm*

*Turns amplifier down from 11*

[The Rock Doctor]

I'm trying to decide what to do with Coquimbo, which I just picked up from the DKB.  It's got a population of 0.3 million. 

As it is, it's essentially unindustrialized, agricultural land.  If I build an IC there, it's going to be suddenly and extremely industrialized.

Should I (or can I) build 0.3 IC there to represent basic industrialization?

Should I build the whole IC?

Should I wait a few years until the population hits about a half million, then build the IC?

The Cook Islands, with maybe five thousand inhabitants, are not a likely prospect for industrialization any time soon...