Gran Colombian News for H2/06

[The Rock Doctor]

5 July 1906:  Esmeraldas

The steam had dissipated, Alvarez and Navarro had been taken off to the hospital, and the finger-pointing was well underway.  The remaining engineers accused the Balbi Corporation of delivering poor fittings.  Balbi's point man blamed the foundry for delivering poor-quality steel.  When Zamora arrived from the foundry, he turned the blame back at the engineers and the project managers, accusing them of a disregard of proper safety measures and rushing the construction of the unit.

The din was such that when the door to the boardroom opened and admitted some additional individuals, they went unnoticed for nearly a minute.  It was the man from Balbi that finally noticed the three men in suits and straw hats, standing near the door with disinterested expressions.  The look on the Balbi rep's face prompted some of the others to pause and look behind them.  Very soon, the room was deathly silent.

Two of the newcomers wore tan; they stood quietly, heads moving slowly to survey the assembled members of the turbine development team.  Many looked away as the cold eyes met theirs; few held the gaze for very long.

The man in the white suit observed the idle boiler.  "I understand there has been an incident", he began, and a half dozen voices began babbling at once.  The man in white raised an eyebrow and the cacophony promptly died away.  "I recognize that your immediate reaction upon seeing my person is to prevent your transfer to a capital works project or some other such endeavour.  This is a legitimate concern on your part.  Such administrative action is not without precedent, and remains an option."

He looked over the various men, not blinking once.  "Given that the machinery remains assembled, and none of you look to have dirtied your clothes, I would infer that you have not yet undertaken a physical examination of the failed machinery.  Therefore, I see little value in asking what the problem was.  You will simply provide theories assigning blame to other members of your team.  You will have no physical evidence to support your theories.  Further, the theories will lead to adversarial relationships with your colleagues, and lead to a failure of the team environment."

"Therefore", the man in white concluded, "Allow me to just say this much:  the successful completion of this project is required by this time next year.  It is a matter of national security.  Should the project be incomplete, your next team effort will involve shovels."

He turned and walked out the door, followed wordlessly by the two men in tan, and the turbine development team began to breathe again.

[The Rock Doctor]

29 July 1906:  Tonantins, Amazonas del Sur

The sleepy backwater village of Tonantins consisted of a rubber plantation, a church, and thirteen houses (twelve inhabited by plantation employees, the thirteenth by the local priest).  It was unusual for the community to receive any riverine traffic other than the weekly passsenger/freight run to and from Manaus.  Food, mail, and the occassional person would be dropped off on the way up-river, and then the boat would return and take on the week's rubber production, out-going mail, and passengers on its way back down the river.

The arrival of two river steamers and the Armada gunboat Aguila was, therefore, cause for astonishment and consternation:  especially when the steamers began to disgorge well-dressed passengers by the boat-load, prompting the local priest to organize a last-minute welcoming committee consisting of the plantation workers' wives.  The oldest of the children was sent to the plantation at a dead run, bearing a note from the priest to the owner to the effect that his presence might be required. 

The owner arrived on horseback twenty-five minutes later.  Like any other entrepeneur in the state, he knew instantly who to present himself to:  Governor Brochado himself, surrounded by a small cloud of flunkies, reporters, and the local priest.  "Governor:  this is a most unexpected delight - to what do we owe the pleasure?"

"Exciting news, Artur", Floriano Brochado replied, as one of his servants stepped forward to take the reins of Artur Moriera's horse.  "The Federal Government has decided that this will be the site of a new river port."  Speaking as much to the reporters and assembled members of Manaus society as to the bewildered plantation owner, he continued, "Puerto Enrico, named for our late, fallen president, shall be a crucial link to the outside world.  The Mitu-Amazonas Railway shall wind its way here, allowing a rapid two-way flow of passengers and goods between the North and our great state, without the need to undertake the cumbersome trip through Brazil and around the continent. 

"Here we will build the facilities necessary to maintain river steamers, to stockpile outbound rubber, produce, and mined materials.  Here we will build a train station and maintenance depot.  It shall join Manaus, San Sylvestre, and Leticia as one of the great communities of our region!"  Cheers greeted this announcement, and a couple of more enthusiastic gentlemen tossed their hats in the air.

"Senor Moriera, what do you think of this announcement?", a reporter promptly blurted.

The plantation owner, having only just learned of this now, stared at the reporter, then the Governor, and finally his horse.  He'd enjoyed the seclusion of the plantation, and this new port was clearly going to destroy that.  On the other hand, he was no fool of a businessman, either.  Turning back to the reporter, he said, "It sounds like a most exciting project which I, as a local businessman and land-owner, look forward to.  No doubt the government and I will be discussing the sale of such lands as may be necessary to assure the success of the project."

As the reporters turned back to the Governor, Moriera was left alone to wonder how best to salvage his suddenly upside-down world...

[The Rock Doctor]

19 September 1906

"The Darien Canal Authority is having its annual general meeting in a few weeks", Industry Minister de Soto observed.  "I'm going to be participating, of course, and I want to get some cabinet direction on matters beforehand."

"What's on the table?", President Alizandro asked.

"Transit fees are the big question", de Soto replied.  "It's safe to say that the Authority bungled there.  The 1906 fees were extremely excessive and limited the international uptake to just two nations - three if we'd issued to France.  The Authority's not hurting financially, because the fees from the DKB and Confederates alone is still more than enough to cover its loan payment schedule and still provide a hefty net profit.  Particularly with the tax exemptions they enjoy."

"Then why change it?", asked Defence Minister Ricardo Alizandro.

"Because it's going to drive all of the business over to the New Beleriand Canal the moment the Rohirrim open it up", de Soto answered.  "The fees there are to be one sixth of the 1906 fees here.  Even the DKB and Confederates are buying shares there."

"Buying shares is kind of stupid", Ricardo retorted.  "The Rohirrim will decide how the canal operates, regardless of who owns what shares."

"Yes, in that respect you're correct - but a share brings with it free transit rights for merchant shipping, and in the long term, that's an economic benefit to shareholders", de Soto answered. 

"So you think we should issue shares?"

"That would go against our policy on leasing our lands to external interests", de Soto said.  "No, I'm just saying that I think the government should advise the Authority to reduce its rates to something comparable to the proposed Rohirrim rate."

"How would they justify the change?  The DKB and CSA would be in a bad position", Agriculture Minister Escalante inquired.

"So they get free rights for a few years to make up the difference", de Soto said.  "As for the justification - the usual bit about 'passing savings on to the buyer' spiel should suffice.  It's not like the Authority's books are open to public scrutiny."

"That's acceptable to me", President Alizandro stated.  "The optics of implementing the fee change now - rather than when the New Beleriand Canal opens - is better for us.  Was there anything else?"

"One other matter - the French want to buy coal to supply their Grand Canal project", de Soto noted.

"How much?", the President asked.

"We're still sorting that out.  The question is whether you want to sell at all, since it is France."

"We might want to consider this in a more complete context", Benicio Delgado, Minister of Miscellaneous Affairs, suggested.  "These canals are tools that can shape our relationship with France and its partners, but we haven't really discussed what we prefer that relationship to be."

"Huh?", Ricardo grunted.

"In very simple terms, the situaton can be this:  at one end of the spectrum, France and partners continue pouring resources into the Grand Canal and, at some point in the far future, they will successfully complete it.  In the short term, we can profit from selling coal, and we benefit indirectly from France directing a considerable amount of its energy into the canal, away from its military.  In the longer term, however, we suffer from additional competition to our own canal, and the French have their own controlled source of access between coasts", Delgardo explained.

"At the other end of the spectrum, consider a scenario in which we convince them to abandon their project and acquire usage rights for ours", Delgado continued.  "We do not profit from selling coal, and the French economy is better positioned to build up its military.  On the other hand, they will have a common interest with us, the security of our own canal, which should lead to a less antagonistic relationship with them.  Economically, we would benefit from the transit fees we did sell to them, and we would not have competition from their third canal."

"I would agree with that synopsis", Foreign Minister Torres added.

"Can the French even think about this rationally?", Ricardo queried.  "They're motivated by pride and-"

President Alizandro raised his hand up with a sigh.  "Let's not get into this now, I'm not prepared for it.  Eduard, Benicio, Ricardo, Sebastien - draft some briefing materials in time for next week's meeting.  Eduard - do a SWOT* analysis, too, please.  We'll discuss the matter then..."



*"Strengths, Weakness, Opportunities, Threats" for those of you not acquainted with the term.

[The Rock Doctor]

5 October 1906:  Cartagena

"I have good news, and I have bad news", Admiral Ruiz announced.

"Uh oh...", Vice-Admiral de Irujo intoned.

"Bad news first", Vice-Admiral Morales requested.

Ruiz snorted.  "You never change.  The bad news is that we can't get Porfiado laid down next year.  Industrial capacity can handle it, but Finance won't release the funding."

Morales sighed.  "Why not?  Are they that expensive?"

"Twenty million each.  Finance says to wait until 1908 to start her."

"Alright...what's the good news, then?", de Irujo asked.  "I know the budget can support more than just Triunfante in the second half of the year."

"Yes - we'll be starting all four Cromwells late next year."

"Well, we do need them", Morales conceded.  "But don't four of them equal the cost of Porfiado?"

"Not quite" de Irujo said.   "More like eighty percent of the cost."

"Pretty much", Admiral Ruiz agreed.  "So that's the new paradigm.  Larger ships means we can't lay them all down at the same time.  Funding limitations require that we stagger construction.  Probably true of other navies too, but it means that our budget is topped out without using all of our industrial capacity.  Kind of a shame to see it go to waste.  I expect some distant member of the de Soto family will end up gaining a couple of shiny new banana boats instead."

"That's government for you.  Membership has its benefits", Morales groaned.

[The Rock Doctor]

29 October 1906:  Cartagena

President Rey Alizandro had grown up to think of Cardinal Juan Rodriguez as something like a kindly old uncle with a nice smile and warm words.  It was only after he'd assumed the position of Minister of Internal Security in 1900 that he'd really began to recognize this as a facade, masking the opportunistic politician and businessmen that truly defined the leader of Gran Colombia's Church.

Or rather, the leader of Gran Colombia's larger church, as the Cardinal was taking pains to illustrate:  "Rey, my son, I confess I am gravely concerned at the Government's lack of acton against the apostate organization in Jamaica.  Those people are deceiving the flock, leading them away from the Church and to their heretical re-writings of the good book and His word.  Misguided as the flock may be, they deserve to be rescued from the eternal damnation they are now courting."

"Then rescue them, Cardinal", Rey replied simply.

"You know very well it is not as easy as that", the Cardinal pronounced.  "Gone are the days in which the Church possessed the legal power to persecute heretics and root out cults such as that which grips Jamaica.  We gave those powers to your government, with the understanding that you would recognize and obey God's will.  Now I call upon you to do so, and you pause?"

The president's eyebrows furrowed.  "What is it you expect me to do?"

"Outlaw the Protestant sect", the Cardinal said, sounding somewhat incredulous that the question had to be asked at all.  "Four million people are already ensnared by its tentacles on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  Now it is reaching out to the savages of the Amazon in an effort to snatch them away from the arms of salvation.  If you do not act promptly, their places of gathering will begin to spring up here as well."

"If I outlaw the Protestant Church", Rey began, noting how the Cardinal's eyes narrowed at that last word, "I risk alienating and angering four million people that I am trying to assimilate into Gran Colombian society."

"You are not assimilating them", the Cardinal scolded.  "They are as ticks to cattle, burrowing in and stealing our vitality.  No rancher sits back to wait for the ticks to finish feeding and drop away - he takes action to kill the ticks."

The two men stared at each other intently for several quiet heartbeats.

"Cardinal, it is the position of this government that attacking the Protestant Church would be detrimental to Gran Colombian interests", the President stated.  "Forget about forceably converting the Jamaicans, and stick to ministering to the rest of us.  You can't save everybody."

"The effort must be made!", Rodriguez retorted.  "If the Government will not do so, then the Church will!"

"I don't like your tone, Cardinal", Rey remarked.

"I don't care for your indifference, Rey", the Cardinal responded.

"Thank you for coming, Cardinal.  I think we're done here."

6 November 1906

To:  Defence Minister Ricardo Alizandro
From:  Policy and Analysis, Defence Ministry

Sir,

As directed, we have updated the Threat Matrix in light of recent global events.  It is presented below for your review.

As we have adjusted the format slightly, an explanation of the matrix is in order.  For all significant world powers, as well as all regional powers regardless of size, we review five possible triggers for conflict and assign probabilities to each based on current events and policy.  The identified triggers are:

A)  Territorial - a dispute over existing borders, or the possibility of the foreign power or ourselves making a play for territorial gains to the detriment of the other party.

B)  Moral - a dispute over conduct by one party that contradicts the moral or religious sensibilities of the other party.

C)  Economic - actions by one party that place the other party at an economic disadvantage

D)  Natural Antipathy - where established dislike and mis-trust leads one party to assign fault or blame to another for events that are in fact unrelated.

E)  Diplomatic - where international agreements require one party to take action against the other, usually as a result of a military alliance.

Our scale of probabilities is:

1)  The powers are currently at war as a result of the trigger.

2)  The trigger could be cause for war if one or the other party acts upon it

3)  The trigger could degrade relations between parties and allow for future escalation

4)  The trigger is a conceivable, but highly unlikely, source of conflict between parties

5)  The trigger is not a source of potential conflict between parties.

The matrix is as follows:

Regional Powers:

Nation	Territorial	Moral	Economic	Natural Antipathy	Diplomatic
CSA	4	4	4	4	5
France	4	3	4	3	5
Iberia	3	4	4	4	4
Mesoamerica	3	3	4	3	5
Netherlands	4	3	4	4	5
Peru	3	3	4	4	5
Rohan	4	3	4	4	3

Global Powers:

Nation	Territorial	Moral	Economic	Natural Antipathy	Diplomatic
Baltikum	4	4	4	4	4
DKB	4	4	5	5	5
Hapsburgs	5	4	4	5	5
Italia	5	4	4	5	4
Japan	5	4	4	5	5
Middle Kingdom	5	3	4	4	5
New Switzerland	3	2	4	3	5
Orange	5	4	4	4	4
Ottoman	5	4	5	5	5
Russia	5	4	4	5	4
UNK	3	4	4	4	3

Analysis

It is not unexpected that the Matrix concludes that conflicts are more likely with regional powers than with global powers.  There is more interplay between states; and the matrix scores the "lack of conflict" the same as "presence of friendship".

The Matrix indicates that Gran Colombia should plan around the possibility of conflict with the following, where two or more triggers are assigned probabilities of 2 or 3 (excluding "Diplomatic", which isn't a source of conflict but rather a contributing factor to another conflict):

1)  France, vying for local influence and power in the Caribbean and South America.  In this scenario, Norman involvement is likely.  Russian involvement is prescribed by treaty, but we are less convinced Russia would become actively involved.

2)  Mesoamerica, re-asserting itself as a regional power.  Depending on how the scenario unravelled, Rohirrim involvement is possible on either side of the conflict.

3)  Peru, asserting itself as a regional power at our expense.

4)  New Switzerland, either seeking territorial gains or the return of its "contractors" from our control.  Curiously, we have a strong working business relationship with the Swiss in other respects, and the Swiss have many enemies in the world, among them France.  Conflict with the Swiss would therefore be particularly undesired, and we recommend steps be taken to eliminate sources of friction with New Switzerland.

It should also be noted that the Matrix indicates very little scope for conflict with the Confederated States of America.  We appear to share a source of common concern in Mesoamerica, and CSA policy regarding territorial gains by outside powers appears compatable with Gran Colobia.  We recommend steps be taken to generate additional ties with the CSA in the future.

[Carthaginian]

*Richmond, Virginia*

"So, the Colombians want closer ties with the CSA..." President Clark regarded the aide that had brought in the latest intel estimates with a wary, but welcoming eye, as if expecting bad news to go with this good.

"It would appear so form this document, Mr. President. We definitely share as many common interests as we do potential sources of conflict. We both share a sizable Roman Catholic population, we both desire stability in the Gulf and Caribbean, and we both desire to make sure that the Eastern Hemisphere remains as self-governing as possible- especially around the Gulf of Mexico."

"As I recall, the Colombians and the Mark were the only ones that were shouting anywhere as loudly about the UNK annexation of the Bahamas as we were... What's the cause of tension between those two that seems to place them at odds? Maybe we could discover this and defuse it to some greater or lesser degree. As beneficial as a Confederate/Colombian alliance could be, an alliance between all three of us would virtually ensure the safety of the entire Eastern Hemisphere... even if it were only a defensive pact." President Clark looked out the window at Richmond.

"Perhaps something smaller, sir? Our technology exchange agreement with Rohan, perhaps. If Rohan and Gran Colombia are both agreeable, perhaps we could extend that agreement. Coordinated and cooperative research between all three of our nations would ensure a rate of development that no single nation- few of the alliances we could foresee forming in reaction- could match." The aide looked hopeful. "Perhaps the idea should be broached to the Mark?"

[The Rock Doctor]

Sometimes it pays to leak documents, I guess.

[The Rock Doctor]

19 November 1906

It was quite rare for Vice-Admiral de Irujo's office door to just fling open, as his secretary knew better than to do so.  It was no great surprise to de Irujo, then, that when he looked up from his correspondence, his boss was storming into the office.

Admiral Ruiz looked rather flushed, so Irujo started to rise with the intention of heading to his mini-bar.  "Don't bother, I know where it is", Ruiz said, waving dismissively.  The commander-in-chief poured himself a bourbon and then came over to flop onto the patent leather couch beside the bar.

"What's the problem?", de Irujo asked, after his flustered secretary had closed the door.

"Politicians", Ruiz replied.  "Politicians are the problem."

de Irujo was silent for a moment.  "Ah - today you were briefing the Cabinet on the oh-seven estimates.  Didn't go well?"

"It was going along swimmingly", Ruiz said.  "We were, for all intents and purposes, done - then the President asked to see the line-drawing of Triunfante."  He paused to ingest some of the bourbon.  "He doesn't like her."

"Meaning..."

Ruiz said, "Meaning, he didn't know why we're proposing a battleship with six guns when every two-bit kingdom and republic out there is putting in eight, ten, or even a whole goddamn dozen."

"To which you replied that we were installing top-of-the-line fourteen inchers from Russia that would be well-sited for a battleline", de Irujo replied.

"The President didn't quite grasp the significance of the jump in caliber.  More importantly, he didn't like the lesser number of guns.  He wants to make a statement to the world with something mounting as many guns as the Rohirrim battlecruiser."

"Twelve?", de Irujo exclaimed.  "We can't pull that off until 1908, and certainly not with fourteen inchers.  We'd need to stick with twelve inch, but we've already ordered a dozen fourteen inchers from the Russians."

"I pointed that out.  I was reminded that we were planning to build shore batteries and could use them there instead."

de Irujo groaned.  "But we weren't planning them.  That was a ploy to buy off the domestic suppliers so we could buy the Russian guns for the Triunfantes.  I think I need a drink too."

Ruiz nodded.  "You do.  Here's the kicker.  I had the springstyle book with me and the President asked for it.  He went through it, stopped near the end...and told me he wanted Design I."

"No...", de Irujo said in disbelief.

"Yes."

"No..."

"Yes", Ruiz repeated.

"No", de Irujo replied once more.  "Yes.  Shit.  Design I?  We were calling that one Insano for a reason, you know."

"I know - but it has twelve guns, and for better or worse, your office did produce a very lovely rendering of it as completed.  The President loved it."

"You pointed out the unusual layout and cost, I trust?"

"Oh yes", Ruiz nodded.  "As did our Minister and the Minister of Finance.  The President over-ruled them.  So we are now directed to cancel the Triunfante class in its current form, and proceed with two units of Design I in 1908."

"And what am I doing with the rest of capital budget in the meantime?", de Irujo asked.

"We'll sort that out tomorrow", Ruiz replied, finishing off his drink.  "Ready for another?" 

[The Rock Doctor]

The following letter appears in mailboxes across the Navalism world in late December of 1906...

38 Camperdown Way
Cromwell, Jamaica
75688

Dear Friend,

My name is Dr Sir Humphrey Conway.  I am the former Minister of Finance for the Island Commonwealth, and I am seeking your assistence in completing a business transaction of mutual benefit to us both.

As you know, the Island Commonwealth was brutally subjugated by the Kingdom of Gran Colombia on the pretext that the Eastern Kingdom police action against the Island Commonwealth was in fact an effort to conquer the Island Commonwealth, which they claimed was discriminating against Eastern Kingdom ethnic communities under the pretext of a strike against the Global Socialist Agenda.  When the Eastern Kingdom struck, I took the prudent step of transferring several hundred thousand dollars worth of bullion from our central repository to a secret government warehouse in the countryside, in order to fund resistence efforts against the invaders.

Although that threat has now passed, it has been replaced by Great Colombia's pillaging of my land.  Though I truly prefer to return the bullion to the people of the Island Commonwealth, I fear that the King of Gran Colombia would accuse me of stealing the funds for my own gain.  I therefore seek your aid.  What I need to do is sell the bullion on the black market and place the cash in a trusted overseas account.  All I ask is that you send me your bank account information and a signed deposit slip so that I may transfer the funds into your account in advance of my own escape from this prison state.  In return, I will split the proceeds with you, fifty-fity, as soon as I arrive in your peaceloving land.

Please act quickly, for I fear I am in mortal danger and must flee before the Secret Police discover what I am doing!

Sincerly,

Dr. Sir Humphrey Conway,
Former Finance Minister

[Borys]

ROTFLMAO!!11!!

[Walter]

(Sure. Why not... Can't think of any spectacular news items anyway so I might as well take the bait.) :)

A message is delived to Dr Sir Humphrey Conway by a mysterious person who covers his entire body with a black cloak and his face with a white mask with three holes for eye sockets. He is Rakshas and a member of Count Griffith's Band of the Hawk.

Dear Dr. Sir Humphrey Conway

Having received word of your letter from the God King Taishakuten, I looked into the current situation in your region and due to the  seriousness of the situation in the Island Commonwealth and I am willing to help you to get out of trouble.

It should be noted that there will be no need to split the proceeds. Should you insist then I ask you to keep my share safe and when the time is right, use it to help rebuild the Island Commonwealth to its former glory.

To ensure your safety for as long as you are still in a dangerous position, I will be sending a few of my trusted men to aid you should you accept my help.

Sincerely,

Count Griffith of El Halcón

(... who may have dark, sinister reasons to assist Dr. Sir Humphrey Conway) :D

[miketr]

The Iberian National Police after receiving a number of complaints sends a copy of the fisher letter to the Gran Colombian National Police.

[swamphen]

[maddox]

Louise, look what letter your cousin Jacques send us.   He wants a few 100 franks to secure a fortune of  Island Commonwealth gold.

Alex, you're kidding, is that one of his get rich quick scemes, again?  Last time he wanted to buy the maps to El Dorado.

Yes, and his reaction when I did arrange an invitation ,signed by High Priest Chaluta, was just worth another fortune. Luckely for him, he didn't accept. Oh well, if he wasn't so funny, I would have send him to the Anuhuac myself, as he is obnoxious overbearing and rather stupid. Or let us say, intelectually challenged.

Alex, don't be so rude, he doesn't deserve that fate.


OOC (Alex is Alexandre Jardan- once premier of France, now envoy to Gran Colombia. Louise is his wife.)]