Mayan Storyline War

[TacCovert4]

...And the FC makes a difference

The number of targets & the tactic too.

Quite.  I was remiss in the sheer NUMBER of 'capital ships' the Mayans have, even if they're half the size of my own capital units, less protected, less well armed, etc.

[Kaiser Kirk]

So I asked the questions because I wanted to hear out the rationale for more skirmishing. The case was not made.

I will admit that I had hoped by posing those queries I would get more discussion and possibly a resolution, but folks seem to have been side tracked into measuring broadsides. The Enki and Gilgamesh classes are <14", but I suppose I could add up the 365mm broadsides of the Tiamats, Stormbringers and Vazra classes and join the fun, but ...lets get back to the main point.

Let's look back at Tac's proposal from the PM:

Land Initial - An attack by a significant Mayan force against the Japanese holding N. Panama, under the presumption that they can take it clean without the Japanese being able to respond, and the Aztecs being stuck responding from the Oaxaca Line (which is like 2 Maginot Lines facing each other by this point).  There will be fighting on the Northern Border with the Sultanate, but ...

In Navalism 7, Snip's design was NPCs do not initiate attack on Players.
While San Diego does make storyline fodder, it is not a good basis for the Mod to force a war on a player.

However, the skirmishing has been happening, and now is a fairly decent time for the Mayan to fight. They have at least (1922-7) the 1915 techs, which means they are near parity on land.

So there are Three Options still before us :

1 - The 'Nothingburger' – The 'war' or enhanced skirmishes as a storyline affair.
Skirmishes in South America could occur. Naval skirmishes such as have already happened could continue.

If desired, small squadron conflicts could be wargamed out.
No exchanges of territory would occur.
Damage to Mayans would be limited in extent and not substantially impact their combat strength.

2 – A limited war - This would be more Snip's original vision for wars – war in colonies, involving the colonial forces.  This would be initiated by players against the NPC.  Minor events would be storyline, major events would be gamed out.

The limitation there is Japan has a colony next to Maya, which becomes fair game in any colonial war. But others could prosecute a war without such mattering. For example Wilno could invade Mayan South America, or the Aztecs could.  While one of our Norse players wanted to Ally with Parthia and do so as well, unfortunately he wandered off.

3 – A war -  starting basically as Tac proposed.  Foxy seems to be reconsidering, and as he could loose his colony, or simply suffer unwanted losses, he is free to exercise his right as a player and decide he does not want the NPC attacking him.   

Storylines can still occur in this scenario, but are not consequential to the bigger war.  Or like the battle of the Caicos, they illustrate the gamed results of the war.

The Mayans will try to fight to their best advantage.  The details of which would be up to the Mayan 'Player Council' of non-involved...i.e. Jefgte and myself. The Aztec-Japanese may stop them on land, or not. Other powers such as Rome/Wilno/ may choose to be more actively involved...or not. 

Since my involvement must be on the Mayan side, Parthia is limited. So Parthia may render some aid, but it would be attached to other player's efforts- such as a squadron of ships, drydock support, convoy escorts, etc.

However it is recognized that even in victory, the the naval attrition is such they would likely loose their fleet, or much of it, and take years to rebuild.

[Jefgte]

...The details of which would be up to the Mayan 'Player Council' of non-involved...i.e. Jefgte and myself...

OK

To prepare the war.
We lack information on the location of the Aztec ships. I guess they have 6 BBs/BCs in the Atlantic and 4 BBs/BCs in the Pacific (?) Cruisers and DDs?
We need Aztec OOB 1923.

[The Rock Doctor]

I agree with the principle that NPCs should not be attacking PCs.

That said, the entire premise of this particular war is that an NPC attacks a PC.  Or two.  Maybe three. 

Is there a scenario, then, where the Aztecs and/or Japanese slap the Mayans for some reason, and then the Mayans respond with a "WELL FINE LET'S JUST ROLL UP JAPANESE CENTRAL AMERICA IF YOU'RE GOING TO BE LIKE THAT."

Because it does sound like one of the PCs has to step up and fire the first shot to make something significant happen.

[snip]

Arguably the slap already happened in San Deigo and its just taken this long to get to the point where its Now or Never.

From the Roman IC perspective, I'm very much in a holding pattern until things happen. Since the way in which things happen will very much influence if I send Kirk off to recreate the Western Front in Alabama. Not enough has let happened to justify a preemptive swing.

Purely OOC, I need some story hooks and having a major shift in "turning on" the Mayans opens up something I can have a little more rational for doing.

[Jefgte]

...I agree with the principle that NPCs should not be attacking PCs...

Disagree.

It's not worth creating a fleet to see it crushed in the first fight by 10 super dreadnoughts.

The Mayans want to drive the Japanese out of Central America.
They can perfectly attack Japanese Central American fleets first.

[Kaiser Kirk]

I agree with the principle that NPCs should not be attacking PCs.

That said, the entire premise of this particular war is that an NPC attacks a PC.  Or two.  Maybe three. 
...
Because it does sound like one of the PCs has to step up and fire the first shot to make something significant happen.

The scenario '3' essentially hinges on Fox giving his permission.
In the event a player waives 'PC immunity' then the NPC can initiate.

I see some disagreement on the premise of player immunity.
As Mod, I try to follow and interpret  the existing rules & guidance in a consistent fashion. Snip is my primary fallback as 'Mod Emeritus'.

As designed, NPCs were strictly neutral, and only responded if attacked.
They also did not take colonies- one thing that changed with the 1912 changeover.
I thought it would be useful for various reasons, for NPCs to take colonies, both for things players could fight over,
and rather hoped for more players like Maddox to take them over.

The potential consequences of taking a newly established NPC colony was not clear at the time of San Diego,
and for something with so little investment,  I do not view it as grounds for forcing an NPC war on a player.
Particularly as I demurred from having them actively cooperate with the Romans in the Caicos war, much closer in time to the incident.

So 'San Diego' just becomes storyline fodder that there's an ongoing undercurrent of hostility.

...
It's not worth creating a fleet to see it crushed in the first fight by 10 super dreadnoughts.

The Mayans want to drive the Japanese out of Central America.
They can perfectly attack Japanese Central American fleets first.

This is why Options 1, and 2 only allow for limited engagements.
If the player base wants to use the Mayans to tell stories, even small battles, that's fine, that's part of the Mayan design- we all need a Bad Guy.
But critical damage to the Mayans is not on the table in storyline formats.

Option 2 allows for having a quiet little war off in a corner, with the wrinkle that those who have a  border near the Mayan may find it not so quiet. If Parthia wanted to send a fleet to Trinadad and 30 Land units into Venezuela, it would be very very difficult for the Mayans to stop them. The Mayans could seize Jamaica though, causing the Parthians consternation, and possible fleet losses in the relief effort. 

If the player base wants to seriously alter the Mayan capacity for war for years to come,  they need to actually have a war via option 3.
And that war will see the Mayans conduct the fight the most effective way they (Jefgte and I) can think of.

We lack information on the location of the Aztec ships. I guess they have 6 BBs/BCs in the Atlantic and 4 BBs/BCs in the Pacific (?) Cruisers and DDs?
We need Aztec OOB 1923.

Folks are responsible for keeping their OOBs up to date.

Since the war, or intention thereof, was announced, at the beginning of August ,
deployments are somewhat* frozen to keep things from magically flying around.

Which means the last existing Aztec OOB applies.
Any ships built since then should be assumed where ever the navy has their main fleet. 

*something like Wilno's publicized internal decision to send more ships means they could do so.

[Desertfox]

I'm good with a full on naval war, I got plenty of old ships I need to dispose off. I was mainly suggesting a more limited war to keep workload down. That said, I still think we should mostly ignore the land component and just focus on the naval side, we can handwaive the land side by blaming it on extremely poor logistics, and in reality whoever wins on sea will win on land. 

[snip]

I still think we need to be very clear about what's happening on land, as that has the potential to influence events. The difference between some probes coupled with naval action and a full-scale invasion coupled with naval action is quite different from the outside.

[The Rock Doctor]

Or re-frame the conflict so that it's not about rolling up to the Canal and therefore doesn't have a major land component.

Something about maritime boundaries/ownership of a stupid island/hassling shipborne trade, that sort of thing.  It's the sort of thing where both sides can act belligerent and then the PC loses its temper and slaps the NPC to get things rolling.

I mean, for all the talk about the window closing on Maya taking the canal, maybe it's already closed because the Wilno sale to Japan meant that Maya had to fight Japan, Aztecs and Wilno to take the canal, not just Wilno.  Pragmatic Mayans might win that argument against their starry-eye comrades.

[Desertfox]

I'm just looking at the practicality of launching a major invasion in terrible terrain where theres only two roads of any kind and a major mountain range down the middle. Logistically, anyone should struggle there on land. That translates to, the only way to do anything on land is to supply any invasion by sea, which means you can't do anything on land until you win the sea portion. Ie the New Guinea campaign in WWII.

[Kaiser Kirk]

A) As Snip says, which ever choice is made, we'll make it clear.

B) Basically, the Mayans can not strike at the Canal unless Wilno Ok's it.  That's why they didn't do this long long ago when Wilno was new.

The Mayans have good reasons to simply remove the Japanese salient before it can potentially become a 'second front' in a Joint Aztec-Japanese war against the Mayans.
Even if they are successful, the Canal would likely remain out of reach right now.

Functionally, I think Maya would be better off planning 2 wars, the first a conquest of Costa Rica, the second waiting for Wilno to be fighting elsewhere.
Much as they would prefer to own or destroy the canal, it really is not to their advantage to fight 3 powers at once. Japan and the Aztecs are powerful enough.
So attacking Wilno, especially before settling the Aztec-Japanese war- would be stupid.


C) That is not a good presumption.

Historically, When the Spanish reached Central America, the conquistadors recorded it as far more open and cultivated.
The population collapse and the impact of the Spanish changed that.

In N7, history was deliberately tweaked so that the civilizations in the Americas- and elsewhere would be more advanced.
With the Aztec and Maya and Inca being tech leaders, the surrounding areas are behind,
but it would not be unreasonable to expect the locals to be around mid 1800s tech, with a sprinkling of more recent.

Smallpox and such was introduced to the Americas in the 400s, so the population has
had time to recover.  'Western' tech was introduced in the 1300s, and Costa Rica was
part of the Mayan nation for some time, which means some roads would have connected them.

If it was terribly inhospitable terrain in N7, it would be 'Harsh', like much of the Amazon,
and cost extra to develop. Instead it was 'average' with the NW province being 'prime'.

While the central mountains would remain, the coastal plains should
be presumed agrarian.

[TacCovert4]

It's still narrow enough that if you don't control or at least 'no mans land' the littorals, then you're just going to suffer endless barrages on your supply lines from any cruiser or battleship laying just offshore.  So it's not impossible, but it is difficult.

[Kaiser Kirk]

The west coast perhaps. There's a section between Punta Ares and Ciucad Cortez where there's only one place for a road, and that is near the coast within interdiction range.
The East coast, the modern road is Limon to Cahuita, but that is where the presumption things are the same are flawed. In N7 there would be other roads as well.
Since at least some of them were probably built during the time the Mayans owned the area, they should connect and give them military access.

However, the system is assessed on a Province/Region level, bounded by tech. Which means the NW province and NE province can fall, and the invasion route simply flow down the presumed interior roads in the East.

This province/region level for Air/Ground causes problems when interacting with Naval units, which are specific to locations in their effects.
So will I try to take account supply line issues caused by Naval units interdicting ? - absolutely I will, they should have some effect.
But it will be an assessment based on what players say they are doing, trying to mix that broad brush design with locale-specific actions.

The land/air system that was designed was meant to be top level, broad brush, tied to the existing tech tree.
That's what I inherited and am supposed to enact. Being able to turn to Snip- with better knowledge of both- is really helpful.

As best as I understand it was meant to be more of a RISK level system with provinces and regions.
Very specifically, the details of the units were left vague.

That caused problems in the Caicos when I was asked about supply states, and since I did not know the size of the units,
figuring how fast they burned through the supplies on a freighter was problematic. 
I had to come up something, which in discussions with Snip post-war, I did. 

On another note, I previously mentioned that Limon was the most likely Carrib port, but that's the NE Province.
But having checked found both IC are in the South Province, that makes Limon non-viable as a warship anchorage.

Having IC means that minor ports for streamships have been developed.
On the Pacific this will be Puerto Armuelles, an old banana port with deep water. 
On the Carrib, the port of Almirante is an old Banana port in Chiriquiri lagoon.

[TacCovert4]

The west coast perhaps. There's a section between Punta Ares and Ciucad Cortez where there's only one place for a road, and that is near the coast within interdiction range.
The East coast, the modern road is Limon to Cahuita, but that is where the presumption things are the same are flawed. In N7 there would be other roads as well.
Since at least some of them were probably built during the time the Mayans owned the area, they should connect and give them military access.

However, the system is assessed on a Province/Region level, bounded by tech. Which means the NW province and NE province can fall, and the invasion route simply flow down the presumed interior roads in the East.

This province/region level for Air/Ground causes problems when interacting with Naval units, which are specific to locations in their effects.
So will I try to take account supply line issues caused by Naval units interdicting ? - absolutely I will, they should have some effect.
But it will be an assessment based on what players say they are doing, trying to mix that broad brush design with locale-specific actions.

The land/air system that was designed was meant to be top level, broad brush, tied to the existing tech tree.
That's what I inherited and am supposed to enact. Being able to turn to Snip- with better knowledge of both- is really helpful.

As best as I understand it was meant to be more of a RISK level system with provinces and regions.
Very specifically, the details of the units were left vague.

That caused problems in the Caicos when I was asked about supply states, and since I did not know the size of the units,
figuring how fast they burned through the supplies on a freighter was problematic. 
I had to come up something, which in discussions with Snip post-war, I did. 

On another note, I previously mentioned that Limon was the most likely Carrib port, but that's the NE Province.
But having checked found both IC are in the South Province, that makes Limon non-viable as a warship anchorage.

Having IC means that minor ports for streamships have been developed.
On the Pacific this will be Puerto Armuelles, an old banana port with deep water. 
On the Carrib, the port of Almirante is an old Banana port in Chiriquiri lagoon.

Quite.  Generally speaking, in this era, you'll have modest supply available through truck or wagon convoys, but to provide primary supply to an army, you'd need double-track railroad or coastal freighters/barges/river barges. 

Overall, I will leave it to Foxy to pull the trigger, as he has the risk of losing or gaining minor territorial possessions.  I don't want to step on his toes as the 'good idea fairy'.  I think that the land war would be balanced towards the Mayans so long as they can prevent the large reinforcements that would be flowing in.......if they fail to prevent reinforcements from arriving or force an early capitulation, then they'll be subject to getting pushed back to the pre-war border and maybe one province beyond by large influxes of Japanese-Aztec troops.