Mayan Storyline War

[Kaiser Kirk]

Sorry everyone, I had hoped to get something done with this this week....however, air and stupidity are two things we aren't running out of......I'm running on 3 hours of sleep regularly after getting called out multiple times this week.

Ugh, no fun.

I've had a busy week, but nothing like that.
The weekend is looking pretty clear.

[Kaiser Kirk]

So I want to bring something up.

The original idea was that NPCs would be strictly neutral.

Here we are exploring modifying that, so the Mayans continue a conflict and launch an offensive.
The Mayans would make an honest effort, try hard, but likely loose.

Since the original decision was made, the time line has slipped a bit, but for Mayan tech 1922-1923 would be very reasonable.
The Japanese lands next to the Canal would be prime for that.

ok good, settled.

However we've also seen some big big changes.
The Mayans had a spat with the Aztecs and Romans, leading to a rapprochement and a change in potential threat. This leads to Rome's muttering of an Operation.
The Mayans then had a spat with Wilno, which sees reinforcements stream to the region.
Now...right on the eve of the planned war a conference on trade security is called, guaranteeing that any action will tick off every major power at the conference.

There comes a point where it's no longer reasonable for the Mayans to launch an offensive,
having conflicts with 4/5 powers (Aztec/Japan, Rome, Wilno) in the region, with Wilno fleet reinforcements showing up, and
and then attacking either right before or actually during a conference they are all at.... seems horribly unwise.

In my opinion folks are stacking the deck,
and adding not only immediately pre-war reinforcements but the conference on top tips it to stacking the deck too heavily.

[TacCovert4]

So, the committee I had noted isn't a conference.  It would be a meeting of a few chiefs of staff to discuss the recent events.  I have no intention of this turning into NATO or something.  This is merely - "We've all had problems in the last couple of years that have resulted in problems, let's meet and deconflict our own responses in the event that these things continue, so we each have an idea of what the other's INDEPENDENT response will be."  Not to coordinate a joint response, but to make sure that Aztecs don't run afoul of Romans (a major complication in Aztec minds, though that's abating with the working together in that fight in the strait) and Wilno's invited because they have the other major Caribbean presence.  Note I didn't invite the Japanese....because it's not a meeting to coordinate, it's a deconfliction meeting, one that probably should have happened a year ago.

[Kaiser Kirk]

I'm still concerned about plausibility.

It's gone from a potentially lower tension time to a very high tension time,
and having a conference with Chiefs of staff - that's really a bad time to give them cause to talk and make common cause.

The combination of events really moves this from a time the Mayans would choose- new tech coming on line, things fairly calm,
to a period of heightened tension, moving together the powers the Mayans would want separated.

The Wilno aspect would be highly concerning, as active involvement would doom the entire proceeding. The way I read the news,
They visited the Aztec, then opened fire and sank a Mayan torpedo boat, and are now sending reinforcements,
hey happen to be a power critical to resupply/reinforcement of the Japanese position
outside the small Japanese ports.... and now there's a conference with the chiefs of staff ?

Does sound like a good time to launch an offensive ?
Or kick the can de-escalate a tad, and wait for a distraction to come up ?

[TacCovert4]

Well, in interests of not derailing things that would be in progress otherwise, I can amend things to merely allowing the Roman embassy back.  That was on the table the moment Rome's fleet supported mine in that impromptu engagement.

Or, a meeting is held, nothing is agreed to, everyone goes their separate ways.......which could tip the Mayans that the two big powers they're worried about going sour, Rome and Wilno, just aren't interested in the region aside from the little bit of flexing they did after their separate incidents.

Wouldn't be the first time the Aztecs called a conference and nothing happened.....in some ways that would make us look like kind of a joke.  Managed to fend Rome off, if barely and only because willpower exceeded Rome's need to take the ground.....a decade ago. Since then, has done nothing of note, and called for conferences that resulted in nothing, one of them notably an arms limitation conference.....meaning that the Aztecs think their own position is weak.......[Well, this is my interpretation of the Mayans impressions]

[Kaiser Kirk]

Let's hear other folks input as well, but scrapping the conference would help a great deal.
I just can't see launching an invasion that could be construed to threaten the canal at the
very time the involved nations are having a discussion about security. Esp as the Nations
previously generally weren't great friends with each other.

[TacCovert4]

Agreed. No conference.    Though Ali restoring the invitation for an embassy could be more provactive.  Things appearing like Azteca may not always be completely at odds with Rome could help push a decision to move before relations improve.

[snip]

I think moving the embassy invitation closer to the kickoff would be a better move, as it then gives the Mayans a little urgency. If relations between Rome and the Aztecs normalize to the point where Aztec forces can be reconcentrated against the Mayans, that's a huge issue for them. Could provide some impetus for making an aggressive move now.

[Desertfox]

An alternative is to scale down the whole war. Instead of a massive invasion you end up with the Mindoro scenario where border skirmishes escalate to open warfare without the deceleration of war. No territory is lost but everyone gets a few battles to test out stuff and to make stories.

[Jefgte]

In fact, the Maya don't really want war against the Aztecs, border skirmishes are enough.
The enemy is Japan. The aim of the war is to drive the Japanese out of Costa Rica and Venezuela.

[The Rock Doctor]

Feel like I've missed some information somewhere.

If it's necessary for the Union to continue ignoring the Mayans, that can continue to happen, for a while.

[TacCovert4]

I think the union making a minimal show of force like a single redeployment of a ship would work.  It satisfies the mayans that that's the unions extent of response.   

[Kaiser Kirk]

Land Techs
Basically, the land part of things was not terribly well defined, being left for 'later'.
The focus was deliberately on sea stuff.
I had actually hoped to tackle what the land techs meant long ago, but stuff came up.

Well it's later, and creating a system to fit the peculiarities our our map, rules and tech tree
while at least kinda sorta mimicking how things work... trying to get the notions
bouncing around my head for a bit down on paper...well e-paper.

So, I've got the draft of how land techs and forts work mostly typed up.
I need to look it over again and finish the draft.
Then y'all can tell me I did it wrong and send me back to the drawing board.



As to Points from the above discussion, aka Rocky's confusion :
The point I raised was that the strategic situation existing when it was agreed the Mayans would start a war   was being rapidly changed by player actions just prior to the kick off time.
This was reaching the point I felt it unreasonable that the Mayans would initiate a war and push all their potential competition together.

Wilno's news includes a reference to seemingly sending a fleet to the theater, Rome is talking about an operation - so I presume troops/ships arriving.
Both right after exchanges of fire with the Mayans.

The exchanges of fire alone, the Rome-Aztec relation change, the possible arrival of additional forces....
at all rather changes that prior strategic picture dramatically.

...against that setting I felt a conference about security would be just a very stupid time for the Mayans to launch an attack...
Tac withdrew the conference idea.

So, the situation is worsening, but we've seen many nations try to seize victory before the opportunity passes.

The War Parameters.
Foxy seems to be getting a little concerned about what's being discussed.

Snip's original vision was NPCs would formidable, but sit there and be neutral.
I deviated from that and had them expand, but otherwise NPCs are neutral until attacked.
I expected conflicts over their territorial holdings, at which point they act aggressively in their own self interest,
but it would be limited.


The Aztecs and Japanese attacked an NPC (Mayans).
I figured this was a minor incident, over a undeveloped area.
Not worth a Mayan-Aztec war.
So during the Caicos incident, there were some Aztec tankers that 'disappeared'. But that was all.

This meant when one of the attackers suddenly gained land
on the Mayan southern border, the NPC stayed neutral.

I try to be "Moderator" or "Arbiter", not 'Game Master'. I don't run the NPCs.
Had I been running as 'game master', once Wilno was gone, the Mayans
would have stormed Central America - particularly with that earlier garrison.
They SO would not want the Aztec's partner to get established on their
Southern border.

I agreed to let folks use the Mayans for a storyline war,
with a null end result, or *potential* territorial transfer agreed on.   
Critical parts would be gamed out.
However if additional folks piled in, the war could leave storyline
and just be a war.

What Tac was saying was the battle for Central America, with secondary theaters elsewhere.
That should be very interesting.

The combined Aztec and Japanese forces should be able to almost shove enough troops in there,
but they will have to protect their ports and SLOC.

IF they fail, or more importantly- if they look like they may fail... then Wilno has to decide what to do about the Mayans next door.

For NPC vs. PC wars, the NPC won't start unless the PC wants to have a war.
Fox has that right.

[Desertfox]

I don't mind having a war, but I do think that scaling it down is the best option at the moment. A major invasion by the Mayans is very likely to bring everyone in while border skirmishes that turn into full blown fighting are less likely to scare the neighbors (Wilno), plus at that point land warfare can be just storyline fluff and only the sea battles gamed out. Keeping everyone from curb-stomping the Mayans also keeps them around as a bad guy for future storylines.

[TacCovert4]

I can support this.  It also allows it to slow burn over multiple HY, which allows players to not get stuck waiting for it to end.