Mayan Storyline War

[Kaiser Kirk]

This is the thread for the Mayan Storyline War.

This will be a war of players against an NPC - the Mayans
There has been plenty of time to grow familiar with NPC's forces.
Though there may be miscounts on a couple ships.

Snip's design is for NPC forces to be based on the strength of the original PC nations forces.
Each NPC has a different ratio.

For the Mayans this means that their forces are roughly :
320,000t of warships  Expect +/- 10%
35,000t of auxiliaries

LP : 130 ...A decent sized army. 
Air Points : 14.  It should be expected that most or all are older.
Dep Points : 53  This puts a cap on the number of forces that can be committed to the offense.

Fortifications : 37 points. Outnumbered, with a smaller navy, one should expect the colonies to be at least somewhat fortified.

[The Rock Doctor]

Are those unutilized deployment points or do they include those in use oppressing holding colonies?

[Jefgte]

Mayan Fleet is currently at 386 410t for 1923. Reducing the number of ships is not enough. I have to reSS some classes that are too heavy and use the 35,000t auxiliaries.

;)

[Kaiser Kirk]

I've sent a PM to Jefgte on the naval strength.

Those are the total Mayan DP.
So a number of the DP and LP are used in the colonies.

However it has been years since they were conquered
and the Colonies have had some IC built.
...which is later on my To Do list.

[TacCovert4]

Mayan Fleet is currently at 386 410t for 1923. Reducing the number of ships is not enough. I have to reSS some classes that are too heavy and use the 35,000t auxiliaries.

;)

I would presume their auxiliaries would be minimal, maybe even auxiliary coast defense ships.   Also I'd presume most of their shipping would be based around fighting me.

[The Rock Doctor]

So I guess my first response (here) is to suggest that we need to nail down how the Mayans are behaving.  Are they concealing their end-goals behind "border spat" langauge or going hell-bent for leather toward the canal?  Are they observing international norms or playing dirty tricks?

This will help give me a better sense of when and how the Union reacts to things.

[Kaiser Kirk]

Aux : While the number is high for the Mayan position, I am trying to Keep to Snip's outline.
One factor to recall is - unlike most Neutrals - the Mayans were actively attacked.
Snip made no real proviso for that, so I've kept close to his plan.

I've certainly made use of Aux as sentry vessels, minesweepers, etc.
Within the 2% normal limit, functional freighters can be bolstered with light guns.
No armed liner types, more wallowing 'hog islanders' with some QFs guns bolted on.
Such could also serve as 'mother ships' / colliers for such raiders.

Thinking about it, tonnage could be exchanged 4:1 for "normal warship" tonnage.

Telegraphing their Move :
A ) The Mayans would almost certainly try dirty tricks, but probably focused on the expected opposition.  They are not ignorant of international Norms and would hope to deter other nations from partaking.

B ) They would not be 'stupid'...but they may do things 'to make a point' that prove unwise in retrospect. 

C) I expect the Mayans would take advantage of their fairly closed society to make preparations, and when good and ready, find some pretext or causis belli - perhaps spur a revolt who calls for liberation.  Perhaps a false flag, but likely some pretext, focused on continuation of the San Diego conflict- i.e spurred by the Aztec-Japanese attackers.

From the Mayan write up

Military Goals : They maintain a large mass army, making defense of the homeland against the Aztec a priority. They had been advancing borders slowly south, but Wilno forces have suddenly occupied that area. Rumor is the Wilno engineers are building a canal to compete with the Mayan Overland route, threatening the revenue.[/i]
...
In 1789 revolution hits the former Mayan Empire, fed up with the excesses of the Aztec Emperor, the Immans, and their own 'nobles' the lower classes revolt. The Aztecs are consumed with their own domestic problems and are merely wary bystanders. Their puppet kings prove unable to stop the unrest, which continues to buid. In 1799 the new Mayan People's Republic is declared under a charismatic general and begins a series of short wars of Independence against the Aztec Empire to liberate the Mayan lands. The Aztec factions rally to fight this common foe and the war of Independence sees periodic campaigns by both sides as the Mayan rebels "liberate" land.

When not at war with the Aztec, the General then leads his troops against other neighboring states, conquering to the South.  Relying on masses of highly motivated troops, the Mayan forces prove capable of destroying the small professional armies led by a warrior elite the Aztec send. The wars lasts for 16 years. Finally at the Battle of Puebla in 1815 the Aztec are decisively defeated, their Emperor captured and slain. The Aztec splinter in civil war, while the exhausted Mayan find their southern provinces in revolt and their economy in ruins. Within a couple years they retreat to their current borders.

From that, the southlands were once ...for a bit...part of the Mayan realm, and they want them back.
Plus that general goal of exporting equality under the benign guidance of the party.

C ) The Mayans should be expected to fight to the best of their ability for a win.
     C1 ) I would expect the initial stages would be termed as expelling the Japanese aggressors and liberating Central America.
     C2 ) While they would dearly like to take the Canal, and eliminate that threat to their commerce ....  the armed might of Wilno is far greater than Japan.
            I expect that choice would be made as they close on the Canal vs. the situation on the Aztec boundary.

Does that sound reasonable to all ?

[snip]

Seems like I need to make up my mind on Rolling Tide then.

[Desertfox]

C2 ) While they would dearly like to take the Canal, and eliminate that threat to their commerce ....  the armed might of Wilno is far greater than Japan.

Ouch...

[The Rock Doctor]

Tremble before me, or something.

[Kaiser Kirk]

Sorry Fox, but I believe Wilno has more deployment points than you have Army points, which means their ability to launch a counterstrike is far far greater.

Logistics and Supply :
Prior to the war kicking off, I should finalize my draft concepts on overland supply, run it past Snip, and then show y'all.
A weekend task.

Historically, lots of wars were relatively limited.  Roads and supply lines limited both army sizes and the depths to which they could advance. 
Depots would be built up to supply the "push".
Napolean's Corps allowed parallel lines of advance by mutually supporting forces, each large enough to avoid quick destruction.
Railroads and steamships allowed rapid movement of troops and supplies in friendly territory, and fairly quick establishment of new depots for the next push.
Internal combustion moved that further forward.

I think tying that to the tech tree as a depth of advance per HY, and # units per provincial frontage makes some sense.
I am also still looking at 'supply points' for supporting colonial battles.

Anyhow, a number of other things on my plate- Just in Navalism -  I was working on trolling Navweaps for ROF by bore/year, but maybe I can hope to finish both this weekend.
I also want to finish categorizing subs by tonnage/ length - just to answer the Q of "how big a dock".  I've done that partially, but need to find if the answer changes with later subs.

[Jefgte]

...Thinking about it, tonnage could be exchanged 4:1 for "normal warship" tonnage...

Real ?
So, I prefer 5000t for aux, not 7000t.
=> round to 18BP / year.

[Kaiser Kirk]

BP : Yes, the important part is the scale of NPC : PC   naval expenditures.  Each NPC has it's own formula Snip set.

Japan : Looking at the last Japanese turn 1922_5,  -which is now the one for the war....Japan's in real trouble.
Both with the Maya...no army to stop them... and with the rules.

A) They have 3 provinces.
B) That seems to be "Costa Rica" also listed as "Central America" Which has 2 IC. Those support 2 Air units.
C) Japan is not building an IC there.

Per "Colonization and Concessions" :
Colonial Upkeep
No colonial province may have more than two (2) IC present at any given time.
If at any time a province is lacking an IC and/or any Land Points, the player has one turn to begin construction of a new IC or deploy a Land point or the province reverts to unowned territory.
This new IC must be completed within four turns or the province reverts to unowned. A nation may also assign at least one Land Point to a province that nation once controlled via IC to maintain control of it for an indefinite period. 

Therefore at least 1 LP or construction needs to be in the non-IC province...for quite some time.
Or else that province reverts.

Each time I do the Official turns, and my Pre-turn spreadsheet, I download the up-to date turn.
I miss some , like 1920_1 for Japan, but I have most filed in order.

I always presumed Central America had a large garrison since it was next to the Maya...
I was wrong.

Central America was Japanese starting 1918.5.
In 1920.5 it had it's first IC completed.
As of 1921.5 a fort point shows up there. No land, no air.   

So technically the entire area should have gone into revolt in 1919.5.

I think we've found our "Causus belli" - a province goes into revolt, the Mayans move south to liberate the entire lot.

Japan has 3 fortifications and 2 air points, which will do a little bit... but without land troops, not much.

That's not the war I expected, but this war seems like it will become an Aztec-Japanese effort to reclaim Central America,
which will be very hard for their amphibious lift.
Meanwhile Wilno eyes the onrushing horde and wonders what to do.

[snip]

And Rome thinks; All this behavior that we have a land boarder with. Perhaps a problem with a reachable resolution

[TacCovert4]

BP : Yes, the important part is the scale of NPC : PC   naval expenditures.  Each NPC has it's own formula Snip set.

Japan : Looking at the last Japanese turn 1922_5,  -which is now the one for the war....Japan's in real trouble.
Both with the Maya...no army to stop them... and with the rules.

A) They have 3 provinces.
B) That seems to be "Costa Rica" also listed as "Central America" Which has 2 IC. Those support 2 Air units.
C) Japan is not building an IC there.

Per "Colonization and Concessions" :
Colonial Upkeep
No colonial province may have more than two (2) IC present at any given time.
If at any time a province is lacking an IC and/or any Land Points, the player has one turn to begin construction of a new IC or deploy a Land point or the province reverts to unowned territory.
This new IC must be completed within four turns or the province reverts to unowned. A nation may also assign at least one Land Point to a province that nation once controlled via IC to maintain control of it for an indefinite period. 

Therefore at least 1 LP or construction needs to be in the non-IC province...for quite some time.
Or else that province reverts.

Each time I do the Official turns, and my Pre-turn spreadsheet, I download the up-to date turn.
I miss some , like 1920_1 for Japan, but I have most filed in order.

I always presumed Central America had a large garrison since it was next to the Maya...
I was wrong.

Central America was Japanese starting 1918.5.
In 1920.5 it had it's first IC completed.
As of 1921.5 a fort point shows up there. No land, no air.   

So technically the entire area should have gone into revolt in 1919.5.

I think we've found our "Causus belli" - a province goes into revolt, the Mayans move south to liberate the entire lot.

Japan has 3 fortifications and 2 air points, which will do a little bit... but without land troops, not much.

That's not the war I expected, but this war seems like it will become an Aztec-Japanese effort to reclaim Central America,
which will be very hard for their amphibious lift.
Meanwhile Wilno eyes the onrushing horde and wonders what to do.

Agreed, this is what we call a 'small' problem.  In the 'to a friendly Japanese Central America' run, I estimated that I could 'airlift' in an entire LP of Eagle Warriors, very light infantry, no heavy weapons, and no DP so they'd be stupidly limited until follow-on forces arrived....the thought was that they could beef up Japanese numbers temporarily, though this would sideline the entire lighter-than-air fleet just for something this limited.  Without friendly DP and friendly aerodromes......it's not possible, a combat drop isn't possible.  The Sultanate would probably be really pushing on its Wilno relations early for permission to transfer from Acapulco and/or Veracruz through Panama.