World Presumptions

[Kaiser Kirk]

So in my ship thread Foxxy is raising good points and making me think about why I'm doing things. 
Many of them I have spelled out or stated here or there.
Others are presumptions I've made, based on the quasi-historical basis of our world.

So I thought I'd move them here for folks to ruminate over.

Trade Routes:
I've viewed Parthia as having extensive trade interests in Asia and the East African coast. Historically the East African trade with the Arab/Persian world existed, with several of the towns being founded by Persians or Omanis- both part of Parthia.  Trade links with India and the Spice Isles seem natural too. Meanwhile there was long a nautical trade from the Roman world to the Chinese, with stops along the Parthian coastline.  There's a map on Wiki of Roman 1st century trade in the Indian Ocean, tons of ports on the Indian coast, while Parthia was a source of gold and wine.

Also, they've found signs of roman traders in Southern China, so there probably has been a Med<->China sea trade, stopping along the coastal ports, for a couple thousand years.

In this version of Navalism, I've taken that premise and placed Parthia-instead of the British- as the one to interdict the East African slave trade starting in the 1870s, and they put a squadron at the straits of Malacca to protect trade back then. Parthia has existing frigates, and armored cruisers, and the support ships, for those missions.
So...it's not new to Parthia, showing the flag and protecting trade, and controlling sealanes over a significant area has been something that they've been doing for 40 years.

Suez, Oil and world trade :
The Suez canal opened on schedule.
That does several main things -
one it allows Byzantine to bypass Parthia for the silk road merchandise.
Two it allows Byzantine to project it's main fleet to Parthian shores. We incorporated that in the history with the Byzantine fleet smashing the Parthian in our last conflict.
Three it means the old maritime silk road route around Africa dried up three decades ago.

I presume the land based silk route from Western China ->Northern Parthia->Byzantine still functions but has lost much of it's trade.
At the same time that China-Europe seaborne trade should be booming. That includes India and the rest of South East Asia.
Many vessels probably hopscotch ports, and work their way down the Parthian and Arabian coasts on their way to Suez. The entire Suez trade could be interdicted right at the Gulf of Aden, that's where the Byzantine strongpoint is, and trade might then go east around the horn. Actually I expect transshipment at Panama already exists in private form. 

That highlights that Americas actually have semi-modern native states which presumably have significant trade with Europe. Further, the premise is that these all these NPC nations are capable of fielding small, but modern militaries. That should require decent economies, so there should be decent levels of world wide maritime trade with them.

Historically by this point in time the Baku oilfields were producing 20% of the worlds output, and 1/2 of that available on the world market....and that was WITH the US fields in production. Here, Baku belongs to Parthia.  Also....Here- there are no US oilfields in Pennsylvania or Texas cranking out oil.  There's no Indonesian oil either.  Basically much of the historical competition is absent.

While all major nations are deemed have "sufficient" for wartime use, I think it's logical that Parthia should be the predominant world exporter of petroleum products. The cheap energy also helps, and the raw resource tends to aid development of the chemical and plastics industries. All of that should mean Parthia has extensive maritime trade.

Granted, I expect that Rome and Vilnus will start producing oil in the Americas shortly, and so the Parthian "share" will decline, but continue to be respectable.


So... thoughts/counter presumptions/other view points ?

[Desertfox]

The lack of a US with its transcontinental railroads and the Panama Canal will likely be driving more traffic thru the Suez Canal and around Africa. The Aztec and Mayan nations should be profiting from currently controlling the only Trans-American routes; however, they would have a problem in that the natural Tehuantepec route is their border for two nations that most likely do not like or trust each other.

Speaking of oil, OTL Mexico started exporting oil in 1911 and by 1921 was the second largest producer. That is now split between the Aztecs and the Mayans, but with the lack of Indonesian oil and the late start to the US oil fields, they should be your primary competitors in the near term. The Iroquoi are also in a prime position to gain significant oil assets. With the Parthians having such a stranglehold on the Middle East oil, are we primed to see the Americas become the N-verse version of the Middle East? 

[The Rock Doctor]

I can't disagree with anything above, really.

At the moment, I'm wavering on development of a Trans-American canal or settling for a transhipment point.  I'm just not seeing Vilnius Union seeing the same strategic imperative of moving ships through the canal as the USA did.  Plus it's bloody costly.

[Kaiser Kirk]

With Inca/Maya/Aztecs on the Pacific, I expect some trade there, and then possibly to China/Japan, but the distance makes it hard on steamships, and I would not think it robust. I doubt that route would go through Suez. For my part, I measured out nautical ranges and looked for harbors at the right spacings to make my leap to Kalifern.

I expect the primary trade focus of the Americas is through the Atlantic to the 'Majors' in Europe. The Inca would be faced with either braving the straits of Magellan, or transhipment.
Since the Spanish tended to do transhipment, I would expect the railway(s) already exist in the Aztec/Maya Empires to move goods coast to coast.

Gamewise, I do expect as places like Mexico to start exporting oil they would be of importance. However, the overall demand for petroleum is about to grow, so I don't think they would so much compete as compliment. The Texas and Pennsylvania fields should come into production, and Venezuela as well. 

Overall, I think that awareness of major resource locations like those is indeed important, as there should be traderoutes from those locations to the 'majors'.

Africa : South of the Unified Berber States in the West, or Ethiopia in the East, there is no African 'middleweight'.   My 'model' for the African coast is the idea of companies claiming islands or harbors,  much as the Dutch and Swedes did. These would trade with the locals, but in the 1400-1800s the disease aspect argued for staying offshore. These enclaves would have supported trade around the horn to China, and some trade with the locals.  The opening of Suez I think would have re-routed enough traffic that most of these enclaves are barely hanging in there, refueling the occasional tramp steamer picking up African goods.  Fast forward 30 years, and these places have shrunk in size.  However the awareness of mosquito vectors and the discovery of treatments for many of the dread diseases suddenly has made colonizing Africa possible.

As for Indonesia, when I took Tarakan my news discussed the presence of oil and a refinery there, I presume exporting kerosene to China.  I deliberately did not grab all the Indonesian fields, as it both seemed greedy and didn't fit my storyline. However, the Indonesian oil will be available in coming years, and I presume mainly serve the local Asian markets.  Overall I know several of the harbors/ag land/strategic points I've grabbed do at some point have oil production, but I

With the Parthians having such a stranglehold on the Middle East oil, are we primed to see the Americas become the N-verse version of the Middle East?

Interesting concept.
I admit I don't quite see it. We're not really postulating more/less oil, if anything less.  And we're not talking about mercantile restrictions that would focus the market on the Mexican fields.
Perhaps if Byzantine closed Suez to Parthia, but Jefgte has made clear it's open to all.

I will point out that Parthia's "stranglehold" does not really matter in military strength - per the basic setup of this version - each of the majors HAS enough oil (or any other resource) for their war machine, so no need for a Russian invasion of Baku, or the Anglo-Persian agreement.  If anything, that greater domestic supply means lower demand..though not by much :)

Plus right now the middle eastern oil is Baku and that plain east of the Tigris in southern Iran.   The Saudi/Kuwait/etc fields are all in the future. I don't think I'll be developing the California fields quickly as I foresee Parthia shipping it's own oil that way to meet any demand. Only once that agrarian population grows might they be looking at more local industry and possibly stumbling across gold in them thar hills.


So to me the relevance of "hey I've got great gobs of this commodity" is when thinking of how my nation's trade evolved, it adds an element beyond the historic East African/ Indian/Silk road aspect, by also giving me a rational worldwide maritime export, and a basis for the industries normally associated with cheap power and petrochemicals. I expect Parthian trade to the Asian theater is fairly robust. while Suez would also have opened markets in Europe.