The Venezuela Crisis of 1902: OOC Discussion

[Logi]

Just as a reference point:

I estimated based on historical prices (debt to GDP courtesy of miketr):
The British and UK are asking for ~20% of the Venezuelan GDP in payment. Since the average government revenue as a percentage of GDP is ~10% during this period, in effect the British and Germans are asking for 2 years worth of government income.

Walter estimated based on the methods to derive economic size in the sim that:
Venezuela's half-year revenue is $4.29 and the debt is $24.4. As such the debt is ~5.69x the half-ly revenue or slightly less than 6 half (2 years) of revenue.

[Walter]

Walter estimated based on the methods to derive economic size in the sim that:
Venezuela's half-year revenue is $4.29 and the debt is $24.4. As such the debt is ~5.69x the half-ly revenue or slightly less than 6 half (2 years) of revenue.

Wiki indicated that the Venezuelan debt was 166 million Bolivares including interest so I assumed that that would be equal to the £4.9 million mike posted. Wiki also gave a dollar-pound exchange rate for 1900 of 0.2008 pounds per dollar to give $24.4 million. So for sim simplicity purposes that would be $24.4.

Wiki also gave Venezuela's income as 30 million Bolivares, although thinking of it now I'm not sure if that was per year or half year or whatever (being used to the Navalism calculations I initially used it as a half year income without thinking). Using the above values, 30 million Bolivares would be equal to £0.88 million = $4.41 million.

The closest to get to that with the 1900 population given on wiki (IIRC about 2.7 million) and altered according to our rules regarding yearly population increases is with 2 ICs to get a revenue of $4.29 (or 1 IC if the 30 million is per year for a revenue of $2.29).

[miketr]

There is debt and amount that is to be paid at any one time.  If Venezuela wasn't in default they cpuld be making quarterly payments.  I assume the loans were for 10 to 30 years depending on the exact terms.  The railroad for example was 7% interest rate.  Demanding all of it in once lump sum is a standard negotiation tactic for people or organizations in default.  What the creditors get depends.

Michael

[miketr]

Before anyone comments I perhaps over played the incompetence of the Venezuelans in my little story.  At same time the Germans did note the VERY poor condition of the ships they captured.  Two they sunk as not worth the risk to tow to port and the third the Venezuelans noted the engine was in much better condition after the Germans returned the ship when the crisis was over.   

I hope people are amused if nothing else.  3 stooges of the sea.

Michael

[The Rock Doctor]

Mean ol' nasty Germans!

*Goes back to conquering South Sudan*

[miketr]

Just to be clear, Germany is waiting on events from either other player action of mod response.

[Jefgte]

When you wrote "ARBV Curacao"
Did you wrote about the 580t proposed ?

If yes, 2500t San Fernando & San Christobal use the same turrets & 8" guns of USS Olympia.
Their officers & men are not so incompetent & alcoholic.

[snip]

Mike is working from approximently the historic OrBat and preformace of the Venezuelan navy. We felt that was easier to work from.

[miketr]

Mike is working from approximently the historic OrBat and preformace of the Venezuelan navy. We felt that was easier to work from.

Historic the British - German blockade captured or sunk the 4 ships that made up the active elements of the Venezuelan navy very quickly.

Mike's two bits is none of the S American navies were very good, several were out right horrible with terrible maintenance records.  The Venezuelan navy such as it was appears to have fallen on the bad side.

Michael

[Darman]

I'm waiting to find out if the Venezuelans will be foolish enough to threaten British citizens residing in Venezuela

[Logi]

That's not going to happen at this time - not withstanding new events.