Butterfly tracking

[miketr]

Where is the timeline that covers the Ottoman and A-H POD? 

I can certainly see Germany and Russia being hostile even with the changes but I would like some more detail.

Michael

[Walter]

I think we *do* need alliances pre-1900. To not have them means we have poor justification for some of our setup building decisions, IMHO. Ditto GER-FRA issues.

I agree with that. besides that, I do not see much difference between a pre-1900 alliance being established and an identical alliance being established in H1/1900. It is just delaying something that will happen by a few years.

The only reason why I would say 'no pre-setup alliances' is so that the nations that want to have alliances have some additional news articles to post about those alliances being formed and meetings between officials of those nations that lead up to the alliance being signed. It would also allow other nations to react on those alliances being formed.

[Darman]

We can still react.  Just like Russia is reacting to the announcement of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance

[snip]

Where is the timeline that covers the Ottoman and A-H POD? 

Here you go. I think this covers the differences we hard-coded into the timeline. Logi might correct me on that.

~1875 ---> POD, Murad V is... more normal and moves Ottoman Empire towards democratic reform, Ottomanism gains much more strength than OTL.
1880 ---> Ottoman Empire becoming a Constitutional Monarchy, Austria-Hungary wages war on Ottoman Empire to prevent resurgence.
~1882 ---> Austria-Hungary loses badly, which leads to the "Eastern Crisis" as OTL... except around Austria rather than the Ottoman Empire. Austria=Hungary is partially partitioned.
1898 ---> Spanish-American War and Spanish-Japanese War resulting in Spain losing control of the Philippines to Japan and Cuba, Purto Rico and Guam along with some other minor possessions to the United States.
1900 ---> Sim start

[miketr]

I brought this up before....

http://www.navalism.org/index.php/topic,6419.msg84496.html#msg84496

A-H has lost Galacia to Russia, Transylvania to Romania, most of Banat, Croatia and Dalmatia to the Ottoman Empire.

Leaving a rump Monarchy and hugely changing the ethnic Balance of the state.  As a first glance I suspect 30% or so of the population has been lost not much industry to be honest.  Again as WAG I suspect you end up with an ethnic balance something like this.

German   35%
Hungarian   29%
Czech   19%
Croat   7%
Slovak   6%
Italian   4%

The Hungarians are going to be totally upset as the Crown Lands of St. Stephen have taken some of the hardest hits.  The Ethnic Germans have to be wondering why they are port of this moldering corpse.   

If this is the setup I renew my suggestion that A-H be just wiped out totally and partitioned utterly away.

Germany takes Austria, Bohemia is portioned along ethnic lines between a Czech state and German Bohemia.  There is a Kingdom of Hungary.

Italy picks up the ethnic Italian bits.

Carniola is the only wild card in my opinion.  Its ethnic Italian, Sloveni and German with some Croats.  Its too small to be an effective state and with a resurgent Turks next door the population wouldn't want to be alone.  I figure since its part of Austria the population joins Germany with ethnic Italian bits going to Italy.   

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austria-Hungary#mediaviewer/File:Austria_Hungary_ethnic.svg

Michael

[snip]

I think at this point the map has been locked down for long enough that I do not want to alter it pre-start. If you want to scheme about partitioning the remainder after game start, go right ahead.

[Darman]

Brits lose first Boer War in 1880.  Attempts to keep the Zulus under control work, but not without sufficient Boer support which is then turned against the British when they try to stay in Natal.  So they leave.  Only to return once more...?

[Tanthalas]

OK I am "updating" the map (mostly fixing Africa but may as well add any changes that arn't mentiond in this thread to).

Questions
Liberia Dutch??? Seriously WTF, I made it Independent but it could be a US holding I suppose (even though it was independent OTL pre PoD).

What is the situation with Austria? is it German or not?

Gold Coast sale, happend didnt happen per OTL (suppose this would be up to me and Draman if I get the Dutch)

Belgian Congo... this one is touchy, and I can argue it both ways.  If I get a unified circa 1900 Low Countries (as per my proposed timeline in the other thread) my PoD is in 1887 not 1875 by which point the Belgian Royal Family already ruled Congo as a personal posession (about 1876 on OTL), or the other side is that giving the Unified Dutch such an extensive holding in Africa isnt exactly fair to the rest of the players so just ignore they years between Official PoD and Dutch PoD

Transal & Orange Free State... my Map lists them as Dutch which is as far as I can see WRONG... if it isnt though uhm can they atleast have a port =P

Suez Canal Gave the UK a "Canal Zone" Dont see the Ottomans Objecting Honestly and it is the least I can see Great Britten honestly setteling for.

[The Rock Doctor]

There's no Suez Canal zone.  Britain and France (I think) own the canal, and maybe some service facilities on shore, though the latter will be a few acres here and a few acres there.  Nothing that will show up on a map.

[Tanthalas]

I used Quotes becasue as it stands it is just a line literaly roughly where the Canal is...  I can remove it easy enough but I thought we should have somthing to mark it.

There's no Suez Canal zone.  Britain and France (I think) own the canal, and maybe some service facilities on shore, though the latter will be a few acres here and a few acres there.  Nothing that will show up on a map.

[Kaiser Kirk]

OK I am "updating" the map (mostly fixing Africa but may as well add any changes that arn't mentiond in this thread to).

Questions
Liberia Dutch??? Seriously WTF, I made it Independent but it could be a US holding I suppose (even though it was independent OTL pre PoD).

What is the situation with Austria? is it German or not?

Gold Coast sale, .....

Belgian Congo...

Transal & Orange Free State...

Austria- is still part of the Dual Monarchy, the Austro-Hungarian Empire. At least to start 1900. You may want to watch the "News from Austria Hungary"....

Liberia :  So, took the map, saved as JPG, opened paint, copied a little square of Liberia, dropped it on Dutch New Guiana in SA...different colors.
Not definitive, but I think it's just a bad coloring.

Dutch Gold Coast : If, as Logi said, the set point for Africa is 1870, then that *is* the sale year.

Belgian Congo : Again, if the set point for Africa is 1870, then the 1876 Congo Free State hasn't occurred, and the 1884-85 Conference of Berlin which made it Leopold private property has definitely not occurred.

Transvaal & Orange Free State : Should be in the 2nd Boer War and loosing, soon to be digested by the Brits. Historically, Queen Wilhelmina sent a warship to rescue the Boer leader as CINC, but they were/are not Dutch colonies and not colored that way on my copy of the map.  Founded by an overland march, the ocean access was through Natal, already digested by the Brits OTL, still present on my map though.  Export traffic was through Durban or Portuguese Mozambique.

[The Rock Doctor]

Given that the big Ottoman/Austrian mash-up got moved to 1880-2, I've attempted to lay out a slightly more detailed outline of key events there. 

Obviously, this does not quite match up with my previous timelines for the conflict, as shared with Guinness and the mods.  I think it does, however, generally support our map borders and our current in-game issues.  Thoughts?

Note:  OTL = "Our (historical) Time Line"; ATL = "Alternate [Navalism] Time Line"

July 1875:  OTL Herzegovina uprising begins as peasants rebel against landowners who are not impelementing Ottoman reforms.  Volunteers arrive from Montenegro and Serbia, which are principalities with effective but not formal independence from the Ottoman Empire; neither principality formally enters the war, however.

April 1876:  OTL Bulgarian uprising begins

May 1876:  OTL Bulgarian uprising is brutally suppressed.

May 1876:  OTL Murad V becomes sultan

June 1876:  OTL Serbo-Turkish war begins

July 1876:  OTL Journalist Januarius MacGahan travels to Bulgaria to investigate rumors of Ottoman atrocities during the Bulgarian Uprising. 

July 1876:  ATL MacGahan is, however, "robbed and killed" by "bandits" before he sends any significant dispatches to the West.  Western/Russian reaction to possible Ottoman atrocities is much reduced.

August 1876:  ATL Murad V, being considered more mentally stable than OTL, is not deposed and remains in power.

August 1876:  OTL After significant set-backs, Serbia pressures Europe to mediate a peace. 

august 1876:  ATL With Britain in particular still on the Ottoman side, the Europeans basically impose a return to the status quo.

October 1876:  OTL Russia's threat to join the Serbo-Turkish war is butterflied away.

December 1876:  The OTL Conference of Constantinople is butterflied away.

January 1877:  OTL Russia and Austria's confirmation of the Reichstadt Agreement is butterflied away.

April 1877:  OTL Russo-Turkish War is butterflied away.

May 1877:  But the OTL Romanian declaration of independence happens anyway.  The Ottomans are somewhat exhausted by all these rebellions, and the threat of Russian intervention lets the Romanians become sovereign with their OTL 1890 borders.

1878:  OTL Berlin Conference butterflied away:  B-H and Bulgaria remain Ottoman territory, Serbia still technically Ottoman.

1877-1879:  ATL Murad V's reforms do a fair bit to pacify the Balkans and its Christian inhabitants.  This does mean some heads roll amongst local officials who resist the reforms, but the peasant majority is reasonably satisfied.  Meanwhile, the Ottoman military is reforming with foreign assistance.

1880:  ATL Austria-Hungary gets really nervous and invades the Ottoman Empire, striking initially at Bosnia.  The Austrian navy destroys the small Ottoman naval force in the Adriatic.

1880:  ATL Montenegro declares independence from the Ottomans.

1880:  ATL Serbia declares independence from the Ottomans and invades Ottoman Bulgaria

1881:  ATL Fighting bogs down over the winter, which gives the Ottomans a chance to regroup. 

1881:  ATL Come Spring, an Ottoman offensive overruns wee Montenegro, which surrenders.  Though Montenegro is relatively insignificant in terms of military power (only a couple hundred thousand people in total), it is a moral-booster for the Ottomans and improves their internal lines of communication.

1881:  ATL A-H, on the other hand, manages to gain ground in Croatia.

1881:  ATL Serbia, on the gripping hand, is over-extending itself in Bulgaria.  Rumors of Serbian atrocities begin circulating, and Bulgarian irregulars begin mobilizing en masse to fight alongside Ottoman regulars against the Serbs.

1881:  ATL:  Smelling blood in the water, Romania declares war on Austria-Hungary and invades Transylvania.  A-H, blind-sided with its forces heavily committed against the Ottomans in Bosnia, is forced to give ground. 

1882:  The Austrians begin to pull back in Bosnia in an effort to stem the Romanian assault (with perhaps Russian volunteers and assistance). 

1882:  An Ottoman drive on Zadar, Dalmatia, splits the Austrians and isolates Dalmatia.  While a portion of the Ottomans bottle up Dalmatia's remaining defenders at Split, the rest drive north and push into Croatia-Slavonia while the Austrians rout. 

1882:  Ottoman forces defeat the Serbian army and occupy Beograd.  An expedition continues north and attacks into eastern Croatia-Slavonia.

1882:  A pro-Russian uprising begins in Austrian Galicia

1882:  An Ottoman naval raid lands troops on the southern Istrian Peninsula.

1882:  With Ottoman troops occupying much of Croatia-Slavonia and Dalmatia, and Romanian forces occupying a large chunk of Transylvania, Austria-Hungary sues for peace.

1883:  At the subsequent peace conference, western European powers refuse Ottoman demands for even more Austrian territory, specifically Kustenland and Carniola, but they grudgingly agree to let the Ottomans keep Croatia-Slavonia, Dalmatia, and a bit of the Istrian Peninsula.   The West reaffirms that Serbia and Montenegro are part of the Ottoman Empire as the least awful alternatives to their continued independence or domination by Russia. 

1883:  The Ottomans also wrestle significant financial compensation from the Austrians, which greatly accelerates Ottoman modernization while placing a large burden on the Austrian coffers. 

1883:  Russia - while none too pleased with the final status of Serbia - secures its pound of flesh by annexing Galicia and forcing the Austrians to cede Transylvania to Romania. 

1883:  At around this time, some of those experienced Ottoman troops get rotated over to Egypt to deal with the incipient Mahdi rebellion...

Outcome:  A stronger Ottoman Empire, with its 1900 borders in place.

Outcome:  An independent Romania with most of its 1900 borders in place (not sure about the bits on the Black Sea coast)

Outcome:  Weakened and divided Austria-Hungary ripe for further trouble.

Outcome:  Russian 1900 borders make sense.

Outcome:  British/Ottoman relations are stronger than historical, allowing for the Ottomans to retain Egypt and Sudan.

Thoughts?  Are there any glaring failures of logic here?

[Darman]

I've got no problems with Britain/Ottoman relations being stronger.  I figured they either had to be stronger because the Ottomans retained Egypt in this time line

[Kaiser Kirk]

Rocky, several points:

First and foremost, I guess I didn't register Snip's post that the original 1875 date got mucked with. I thought your original timeline worked nicely.  Nor do I see a flaw with your NTL for Egypt/Sudan in the initial post of this thread, which saw the British unhappy, but accepting as their principal goal regarding suez- access- was intact.

Second, by expanding the conflict in time, you're running into the 1880s.
Now the idea about the current conflict is that Italy and Germany have been, under Bismarck's scheming, allied with Austria Hungary since the 1880s - specifically May 20 1882.
I really doubt we would signed up for an Alliance in the midst of all that. Not to mention that it originated in the Dual Alliance of 1879 between Germany and Austria Hungary. So either that needs to be waved away, or also redrawn.  Substituting an Austria emboldened by her back protected launching an Austrian surprise attack and short sharp war 1880-1882 that ends in catastrophic defeat with a Bismarck-moderated peace backed by German-Italian guarantee of AH in 1882 might be a reasonable explanation.

Third, I really dislike Galicia revolting for the Russians. Never really understood why they were given it at game start.  In 1846 the Poles revolted for independence, but were not supported by their own peasants. In the Russian portion you had revolts in 1861 and the January Uprising covered the Russian lands in 1863-1865. The Russians burned down towns, hung people, exiled people, etc and imposed the Russian language as official. In 1905 the Poles rose again.  Meanwhile Austrian Galician moved towards autonomy with local legislature, languages, etc. By 1873 germanization and censorship was halted - things were much improved. Reading about the two areas, I can't see why the Poles and Ukrainians in Galicia would want to give up what they had to go join the Russian-run lands in 1882.  A simple Russian opportunistic invasion seems reasonable.

Fourth, a stronger Ottoman empire alone explains why Britain didn't seize Egypt, as you outlined in your first attempt.  Second, an Ottoman-British reapproachment should have had ripple effects elsewhere - given the entire Crimean thing wasn't *that* long ago the Russians wouldn't like it, especially if the Ottomans are revitalized and expansionist, knocking off one primary foe (AH) would just give them freedom against the other.

[The Rock Doctor]

I thought the original timeline worked fine as well, but the timing of the Otto/AH war somehow moved into the '80s.  I wanted to avoid a situation where we know there was a war but don't know the details, much as WW1 troubled Wesworld for a while.

The issue with Bismarck scheming is noted, though.

I'm fine with a Russian invasion of Galicia; that was me looking for easy ideas to account for the current borders.

Crimea's an interesting point, and something perhaps to be revisited within the game, but my general sense is that - at most - it's a grudge for the Ottomans to hold.  Regaining it is likely a hopeless cause.