Butterfly tracking

[Walter]

You know, in the past I asked to get Nepal and Bhutan but instead Colombia appears to have become a Chinese colony. ;D

[The Rock Doctor]

I support this exciting change in geography.

[The Rock Doctor]

So FYI:  I moved two 1 citadels forts from Abu Dhabi and Bahrain to Kars and the Gallipoli peninsula.

I also moved the port from Abu Dhabi to Qatar.

There will be a very minor drop in Ottoman population, probably less than 100,000.

[Jefgte]

From Rocky

What do you think about Tunis?  Are you okay with our alternate history having it be Ottoman?

No problemo Tunisia could be Ottoman

Jef

[The Rock Doctor]

Cool.

[Kaiser Kirk]

I don't have a great deal of changes to OTL for the Italians- had somewhat more for the Spanish.
I'll have to decide if Umberto I is assassinated on July 29th on schedule.

Obviously, no colonies have been established in Abbysinia.

November 3, 1895 : The Lateran Accords (originally 1929) are signed, and appended to the Statuto Albertino. the Excommunication of Savoy is lifted.

Effect : Nominal, moves the creation of the Vatican state up 34 years, and removes a source of internal friction. Oh, and the financial aspects of the agreement are thus resolved 5 years before "start".

October 25, 1896 : Marriage of Victor Emmanuel III to Princess Maria of Greece & Denmark in Rome with a Papal blessing.


Effect :
(1) Originally, the bride was Elena of Montenegro, which as of 1878 was independent. Here, that is not the case, so she is unlikely to be a 'suitable' bride. This leaves the young nation of Greece as a reasonable choice. Princess Alexandra was married by this time, and this gives an opportunity for a Princess Xenia of Italy, who of course will be a warrior.
(2) Merely formalizes the relationship between Vatican and Monarch.
(3) Alternately, I could settle for Princess Maria of Bavaria, who OTL married an Italian Prince.

1897 : Did the Greco-Turkish war occur?  It was called the 30 days war, so it was short. Technically started March 24, but officially April 18, with the decisive battle May 16, and ceasefire on the 20th.  Historically Italian volunteers served under Garibaldi's son, but Italy did not become involved. In Navalism, if this war occurred, I'd like the Italians to make noises and start mobilization of some units, say in mid-May - to late to change it, but enough to indicate willingness to help.

May 24, 1898 : Bernedetto Brin does not die at 55, but lives to push his naval program forward.

[The Rock Doctor]

I assume the war didn't happen.  Lots of butterflies in the way.

I'm not saying Cretan Greeks will be happy in Ottoman hands, but the various reforms promised by the Ottomans in the 60s and 70s have happened here.

And if Greece is unhappy about it, there's a much bigger Ottoman navy to get through.

[Kaiser Kirk]

I think skipping the Greco-Turco war is for the best. A stronger Ottoman would deter Greek activism...well technically the Ottomans invaded.
Other than the above I don't see any Butterfly effects for the Italians.

[Kaiser Kirk]

So, Victor did marry Maria of Greece.
King Umberto got himself assassinated in 1899, instead of 1900.
Victor's new budget reflects the 50:50 balance of N6, rather than the 75:25 I bet they were running.


Questions :
1882 Triparte Alliance : Germany, AH, Italy : Valid or Invalid ?
1892 Treaty of Nice : Franco-Italian defense pact : Valid or Invalid?

[Jefgte]

1892 Treaty of Nice : Franco-Italian defense pact : Valid or Invalid?

Valid for France

[Jefgte]

Franco-Russian Alliance was drafted August 17, 1892. It became final on January 4, 1894.
For us, Defensive & Economic Treaty.

Jef  ;)

[Guinness]

Franco-Russian Alliance was drafted August 17, 1892. It became final on January 4, 1894.
For us, Defensive & Economic Treaty.

Jef  ;)

Huh? What? ;-)

I don't suppose I'm opposed to the Franco-Russian alliance existing. Most of what's different for Russia is in the Pacific...

[miketr]

With the state of A-H I have my doubts on Germany refusing to renew the Reinsurance Treaty in 1890 that setups up the Franco Russian alliance.  At the same time there were mounting economic tensions between Germany and Russia BUT with the leadership situation in both countries such issues could be easily ignored. 

The state of A-H has effects on the two alliances.

As a meta game point of view it might be best that other than Franco - German hostility towards one another for there to be no pre-setup alliances.

Michael

[Guinness]

I think we *do* need alliances pre-1900. To not have them means we have poor justification for some of our setup building decisions, IMHO. Ditto GER-FRA issues.

But yes, reconciling all that with the PoD is difficult to say the least. All I know for certain right now is Russia is not terribly friendly with the Ottomans (thought maybe not outright hostile), and looks upon Germany and A-H with great mistrust. I'd done some things in ship designs based on the idea that they were friendly with France through the early 1890s (at least), and I'm not sure about Britain.

But other machinations in the Pacific could change all that I suppose.

[Guinness]

Or to add a more urgent comment:

Russia needs to run around and establish some alliances. Issues in the West are maybe less pressing, but issues in the East are more pressing. In particular, the already declared Japan/Britain treaty gives the Russians some pause.

I don't want to step on any toes though. So I'm happy to hash out some of that in the open before startup just to be fair.