Crimea

[Darman]

I'm interested to know what everyone else thinks about recent developments in the Crimea.  Especially what those of you not living in the US might think about it.  Or even if you couldn't care less, I'm rather interested to know.  In my mind this is an important event occurring in the world today, but I'm not entirely sure what it means or what it may or may not lead to. 

[Walter]

As long as I don't have Russians knocking on my door, it'll be fine.

It could be an attempt by the Russians to get all the former states back under one banner and this is just the first step of that attempt.

On the other hand, maybe this is what the majority people living in the Crimea truly want. Maybe it is because how the Ukraine deals with the region or perhaps the people there lost trust in the Ukrainian goverment or they never felt like they should have been part of the Ukraine.

Maybe what they truly want is independence but are being manipulated by the Russians somehow into joining them.

Who knows what is truly going on there? I think that sanctions and throwing Russia out of the G8 is a bit premature when you do not have a clear picture of the situation. Maybe the true reason of those actions has to do with Russia not supporting the others against the Syrian government and the Crimea mess is just being used as an excuse to take those actions to make their act of revenge less obvious... but maybe this is just me talking a lot of nonsense here.

[Darman]

It could be an attempt by the Russians to get all the former states back under one banner and this is just the first step of that attempt.

This was my first reaction.  Although its not the first step (Trans-Dniester region of Moldova and the Georgian War in 2008 come to mind). 

On the other hand, maybe this is what the majority people living in the Crimea truly want. Maybe it is because how the Ukraine deals with the region or perhaps the people there lost trust in the Ukrainian goverment or they never felt like they should have been part of the Ukraine.

Always a possibility, and personally I don't discount the factuality of the ethnic Russian preponderance in the Crimea, however, 60% of the population is ethnically Russian and not all of them would willingly vote to return to Mother Russia's fold.  None of the non-ethnic Russians would voluntarily vote to return to Russia either. Both of these statements are my opinion. 

Maybe what they truly want is independence but are being manipulated by the Russians somehow into joining them.

This I believe could easily be the case.  However, my gut instinct tells me that elements of the Russian government engineered the Crimean "revolt" or whatever you want to call it, after their man in Kiev was ousted by Ukranian pro-European rioters. 

Who knows what is truly going on there? I think that sanctions and throwing Russia out of the G8 is a bit premature when you do not have a clear picture of the situation. Maybe the true reason of those actions has to do with Russia not supporting the others against the Syrian government and the Crimea mess is just being used as an excuse to take those actions to make their act of revenge less obvious... but maybe this is just me talking a lot of nonsense here.

I've never considered that sanctions etc could be a result of Russia's opposition to any UN action in Syria.  Its an interesting idea, and no doubt will fuel many an hour of thought. 

My personal opinion is that given Russia's recent history (last 2 decades), we may very well be ignoring a trend towards territorial expansion, either directly or of Russia's sphere of direct influence.  While this does not directly affect the United States, I believe it is in our interest to monitor the situation. 

[snip]

You are welcome.

[Darman]

You are welcome.

Thanks :P

[Logi]

Well I am in the US, but I'll give my opinion anyways. I find it an very interesting geopolitical power play unfolding in East Europe.

My take is that riot was influenced, if not engineered, by US/European forces to bring Ukraine towards NATO in an attempt to obtain control, whether for debt control on NGOs and other such assets or to marginalize the Russian ability to project in the Black Sea. Since this move is not legal, and indeed the ousting of the former president of Ukraine and election of new leader was not and is still not legal (reading the specifics of the Ukrainian Constitution) as well as a threat to Russian strategic interests, Russia moved in to more concretely cement it's influence in Crimea.

It should be no surprise that most of Crimea wants to join Russian given it's ethnicity, poverty, and historical reasons and I highly doubt the referendum was, as US media tends to suggest, tampered with. After all, though strategic interest may be focused on Crimea, there is little economic interest there, given it's lack of resources in comparison to Eastern Ukraine. I doubt a NATO-oriented Ukraine would benefit Crimea very much in addition to it's already prevalent marginalization within the nation. Indeed the media play on it remains me much of how media portrays Tibet/Sinkiang in China and the "plight" of the people there.



This follows how I interpret the actions and the responses of the world towards this event and how it will influence the future, which is what I find more interesting.
Frankly over-investment in propping up Ukraine from US/EU would be a poor policy going forward. Ukraine has been a basket case economically for many years and it's likely to be a black hole for funds. It's potential shale reserves probably will not be able to be tapped due to corruption and other factors. The US cannot support Ukraine's need for oil for very long since our own shale oil reserve are now in the decline phase. In addition we have neither the funds nor political will to do so. Despite the barking at Obama for not being "tough with Russia", I don't think the general feel of the country has shifted from the steadily increasing disinterest with foreign affairs.

At the same time I don't think Russia will move to annex the whole of Ukraine anytime soon. After all, Ukraine is a basket case economically and a potential source of dissidence. Unless NATO moves to entrench itself in Ukraine, there very little to be gained from Ukraine's absorption into Russia other than prestige. And prestige is of very little real benefit compared to trade brokered with China and Europe.

That brings me to the issue of China. This move by US/EU has served poorly in our interests in the sense that it has accelerated the Russian transition towards an Eastern focus. Increasingly Russian interests are dominated by trade with India and China and mainly (currently) Japan, though China is by far Russia's largest interest. This Asian pivot makes China's geo-strategical position less tenuous and also immensely benefits China. Russian oil towards Europe will likely be declining if more pressure is asserted at the same time China's need for oil and natural gas increases as China shifts towards domestic consumption. China now has much more leverage on brokering a deal with Russia over such energy resources than before.

At the same time, additional moves towards annexing the whole of Ukraine probably would not receive great favor from the government of China. China's government adopts a measured approach where time solves problems and it has no need to too aggressively pursue any issue. In the Taiwain, Diaoyu/Senkaku, and SCS issues for example, China has mostly preserved the status quo will the occasional remainder that their claims exists, so long as the other side also does not break from the status quo. In that viewpoint, Russia's move will likely be met with cautious acceptance in order to not provoke US/EU forces too much. We see this in China abstaining from the UN resolution regarding Crimea rather than voicing plainly support of the Russian position.

At the same time this will likely draw Japan closer to Russia due to the skyrocketing need for oil and natural gas in Japan due to the shutting down of nuclear reactors following Furushima. This move may not necessarily be in conflict with Russia's move towards China since it's hard to say what might happen after Crazy Abe's term ends. If Japan does not embark further on the very nationalist and war-mongering trend it has been on during Abe's term then Japan may indeed move towards reconciliation with Asia. If this and the Diaoyu/Senkaku island issue is settled with something like a joint ownership agreement (since neither side is going to give up a historically rooted claim) then a loose Russia-China-Japan network may be possible. Despite very real historical issues between China and Japan, the generation that remembers is dying out and the new generation no longer associates themselves with the China of that period as polls show. The new generation seems much more willing to accept an apologetic and non-aggressive Japan. It's good to note that Japan's government and people has been increasingly less willing to follow Article 9 of their Constitution and whatever the US tells it to do.

At the same time, Russia is moving closer to India. What is really happening with these moves and shifts is a new world order, the new Zeitgeist. The center of the world is increasingly located in the BRICs and that does not include the US and Europe. The BRICs are asserting more power in the regions they have traditionally held influence over. Hence we can say the era of the traditionally thought of "West" dominance is fast ending.



I quite dislike the direction of foreign policy pursued by the US in this event, though I also dislike our foreign policy in general. That is not to say I don't understand why we are doing it, just that I find it unwise. Our move in economic sanctions and criticism of Russia is accelerating the removal of the US dollar as the reserve currency of the world. Indeed we are pushing Russia, the 5th largest economy in the world, towards the 2nd largest economy in the world which already was doing some limited trade based on the Chinese Yuan rather than the US dollar. In addition, India's stronger ties with Russia rather than the US means we are moving a combined economy far larger than our own in PPP away from us.

I worry about this accelerating since it is also accelerating the devastating collapse of our economy, which is a fore-gone conclusion. Whilst this would be good since there will be less to restructure, I had hoped the shifting public sentiment would become a greater force than that of vested interests and allow for restructuring of the government and hence a softer landing. If the process of collapse is accelerated, I am not certain there will be enough time for this to happen.

[Darman]

There was a massive trade agreement signed recently between Russia and China.  I took it as the "F you, West", that I believe it was.