Brazilian Design Competition 1901

Started by Darman, February 13, 2013, 09:29:15 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

KWorld

Quote from: Darman on February 16, 2013, 05:40:11 PM
Here's a tough question now... because I'd prefer to have the country who's design I'm using build the ship... Who is going to have BP for sale and the slips available in HY1-1901?

Fore River Shipyard near Boston has the slips available, and the US can have the BP available.

Nobody

Quote from: Darman on February 16, 2013, 05:40:11 PM
Here's a tough question now... because I'd prefer to have the country who's design I'm using build the ship... Who is going to have BP for sale and the slips available in HY1-1901? 
I had to count my type 2 slips/dock, but that's not a problem.



Another idea for the smaller ship:
K3400a, German Export Protected Cruiser laid down 1901 (Engine 1900)

Displacement:
   3.400 t light; 3.533 t standard; 4.000 t normal; 4.375 t full load

Dimensions: Length (overall / waterline) x beam x draught (normal/deep)
   (374,02 ft / 360,89 ft) x 39,37 ft x (19,69 / 21,07 ft)
   (114,00 m / 110,00 m) x 12,00 m  x (6,00 / 6,42 m)

Armament:
      4 - 5,91" / 150 mm 40,0 cal guns - 88,18lbs / 40,00kg shells, 100 per gun
     Breech loading guns in deck mounts, 1901 Model
     4 x Single mounts on side ends, evenly spread
      6 - 4,13" / 105 mm 40,0 cal guns - 37,48lbs / 17,00kg shells, 150 per gun
     Breech loading guns in deck mounts, 1901 Model
     6 x Single mounts on sides, evenly spread
      8 - 3,46" / 88,0 mm 30,0 cal guns - 15,43lbs / 7,00kg shells, 200 per gun
     Quick firing guns in casemate mounts, 1901 Model
     8 x Single mounts on side ends, evenly spread
      8 hull mounts in casemates- Limited use in all but light seas
      4 - 1,46" / 37,0 mm 20,0 cal guns - 0,96lbs / 0,44kg shells, 500 per gun
     Auto rapid fire guns in deck mounts, 1901 Model
     4 x Single mounts on sides, evenly spread
      4 raised mounts
      Weight of broadside 705 lbs / 320 kg

Armour:
   - Belts:      Width (max)   Length (avg)      Height (avg)
   Ends:   Unarmoured
   Upper:   2,36" / 60 mm   246,06 ft / 75,00 m   8,01 ft / 2,44 m

   - Gun armour:   Face (max)   Other gunhouse (avg)   Barbette/hoist (max)
   Main:   1,97" / 50 mm   0,79" / 20 mm            -
   3rd:   1,97" / 50 mm   1,18" / 30 mm      3,54" / 90 mm

   - Protected deck - single deck:
   For and Aft decks: 1,77" / 45 mm
   Forecastle: 0,79" / 20 mm  Quarter deck: 1,97" / 50 mm

   - Conning towers: Forward 3,94" / 100 mm, Aft 1,18" / 30 mm

Machinery:
   Coal fired boilers, complex reciprocating steam engines,
   Direct drive, 2 shafts, 11.028 ihp / 8.227 Kw = 21,00 kts
   Range 5.800nm at 10,00 kts
   Bunker at max displacement = 842 tons (100% coal)

Complement:
   250 - 326

Cost:
   £0,387 million / $1,547 million

Distribution of weights at normal displacement:
   Armament: 100 tons, 2,5%
      - Guns: 100 tons, 2,5%
   Armour: 584 tons, 14,6%
      - Belts: 191 tons, 4,8%
      - Armament: 65 tons, 1,6%
      - Armour Deck: 301 tons, 7,5%
      - Conning Towers: 28 tons, 0,7%
   Machinery: 1.695 tons, 42,4%
   Hull, fittings & equipment: 998 tons, 24,9%
   Fuel, ammunition & stores: 601 tons, 15,0%
   Miscellaneous weights: 22 tons, 0,5%
      - Hull below water: 5 tons
      - Hull above water: 5 tons
      - On freeboard deck: 2 tons
      - Above deck: 10 tons

Overall survivability and seakeeping ability:
   Survivability (Non-critical penetrating hits needed to sink ship):
     2.170 lbs / 984 Kg = 21,1 x 5,9 " / 150 mm shells or 0,5 torpedoes
   Stability (Unstable if below 1.00): 1,46
   Metacentric height 2,4 ft / 0,7 m
   Roll period: 10,7 seconds
   Steadiness   - As gun platform (Average = 50 %): 80 %
         - Recoil effect (Restricted arc if above 1.00): 0,21
   Seaboat quality  (Average = 1.00): 1,81

Hull form characteristics:
   Hull has a flush deck,
     a ram bow and a cruiser stern
   Block coefficient (normal/deep): 0,501 / 0,511
   Length to Beam Ratio: 9,17 : 1
   'Natural speed' for length: 19,00 kts
   Power going to wave formation at top speed: 48 %
   Trim (Max stability = 0, Max steadiness = 100): 44
   Bow angle (Positive = bow angles forward): -20,00 degrees
   Stern overhang: -3,28 ft / -1,00 m
   Freeboard (% = length of deck as a percentage of waterline length):
            Fore end,    Aft end
      - Forecastle:   20,00%,  17,06 ft / 5,20 m,  13,29 ft / 4,05 m
      - Forward deck:   30,00%,  13,29 ft / 4,05 m,  13,29 ft / 4,05 m
      - Aft deck:   35,00%,  13,29 ft / 4,05 m,  13,29 ft / 4,05 m
      - Quarter deck:   15,00%,  13,29 ft / 4,05 m,  14,76 ft / 4,50 m
      - Average freeboard:      13,70 ft / 4,18 m
   Ship tends to be wet forward

Ship space, strength and comments:
   Space   - Hull below water (magazines/engines, low = better): 145,2%
      - Above water (accommodation/working, high = better): 95,9%
   Waterplane Area: 9.472 Square feet or 880 Square metres
   Displacement factor (Displacement / loading): 92%
   Structure weight / hull surface area: 61 lbs/sq ft or 298 Kg/sq metre
   Hull strength (Relative):
      - Cross-sectional: 0,92
      - Longitudinal: 2,03
      - Overall: 1,00
   Cramped machinery, storage, compartmentation space
   Adequate accommodation and workspace room
   Ship has slow, easy roll, a good, steady gun platform
   Excellent seaboat, comfortable, can fire her guns in the heaviest weather

Darman

Case Study 1, Brazil protected cruiser laid down 1901 (Engine 1900)

Displacement:
   3,788 t light; 3,926 t standard; 4,443 t normal; 4,856 t full load

Dimensions: Length (overall / waterline) x beam x draught (normal/deep)
   (389.00 ft / 389.00 ft) x 42.50 ft x (19.00 / 20.32 ft)
   (118.57 m / 118.57 m) x 12.95 m  x (5.79 / 6.19 m)

Armament:
      5 - 5.91" / 150 mm 40.0 cal guns - 88.18lbs / 40.00kg shells, 150 per gun
     Breech loading guns in deck and hoist mounts, 1901 Model
     3 x Single mounts on centreline ends, majority aft
      1 raised mount aft - superfiring
     2 x Single mounts on sides, forward deck aft
      6 - 3.46" / 88.0 mm 30.0 cal guns - 15.43lbs / 7.00kg shells, 250 per gun
     Quick firing guns in deck mounts, 1901 Model
     6 x Single mounts on sides amidships
      Weight of broadside 534 lbs / 242 kg

Armour:
   - Belts:      Width (max)   Length (avg)      Height (avg)
   Ends:   Unarmoured
   Upper:   2.00" / 51 mm   385.00 ft / 117.35 m   6.00 ft / 1.83 m

   - Gun armour:   Face (max)   Other gunhouse (avg)   Barbette/hoist (max)
   Main:   3.50" / 89 mm   1.50" / 38 mm      3.50" / 89 mm
   2nd:   1.00" / 25 mm         -               -

   - Protected deck - single deck: 1.50" / 38 mm For and Aft decks
   Forecastle: 1.00" / 25 mm  Quarter deck: 1.00" / 25 mm

   - Conning towers: Forward 3.00" / 76 mm,  Aft 0.00" / 0 mm

Machinery:
   Coal fired boilers, complex reciprocating steam engines,
   Direct drive, 2 shafts, 12,521 ihp / 9,341 Kw = 21.50 kts
   Range 6,000nm at 10.00 kts
   Bunker at max displacement = 930 tons (100% coal)

Complement:
   271 - 353

Cost:
   £0.448 million / $1.794 million

Distribution of weights at normal displacement:
   Armament: 131 tons, 2.9 %
   Armour: 562 tons, 12.7 %
      - Belts: 175 tons, 3.9 %
      - Armament: 82 tons, 1.8 %
      - Armour Deck: 288 tons, 6.5 %
      - Conning Tower: 17 tons, 0.4 %
   Machinery: 1,933 tons, 43.5 %
   Hull, fittings & equipment: 1,128 tons, 25.4 %
   Fuel, ammunition & stores: 655 tons, 14.7 %
   Miscellaneous weights: 33 tons, 0.7 %
      - Hull below water: 6 tons
      - Hull above water: 2 tons
      - Above deck: 25 tons

Overall survivability and seakeeping ability:
   Survivability (Non-critical penetrating hits needed to sink ship):
     1,953 lbs / 886 Kg = 19.0 x 5.9 " / 150 mm shells or 0.5 torpedoes
   Stability (Unstable if below 1.00): 1.37
   Metacentric height 2.4 ft / 0.7 m
   Roll period: 11.5 seconds
   Steadiness   - As gun platform (Average = 50 %): 62 %
         - Recoil effect (Restricted arc if above 1.00): 0.23
   Seaboat quality  (Average = 1.00): 1.25

Hull form characteristics:
   Hull has a flush deck,
     a normal bow and a cruiser stern
   Block coefficient (normal/deep): 0.495 / 0.506
   Length to Beam Ratio: 9.15 : 1
   'Natural speed' for length: 19.72 kts
   Power going to wave formation at top speed: 47 %
   Trim (Max stability = 0, Max steadiness = 100): 50
   Bow angle (Positive = bow angles forward): 0.00 degrees
   Stern overhang: 0.00 ft / 0.00 m
   Freeboard (% = length of deck as a percentage of waterline length):
            Fore end,    Aft end
      - Forecastle:   20.00 %,  15.00 ft / 4.57 m,  11.00 ft / 3.35 m
      - Forward deck:   20.00 %,  11.00 ft / 3.35 m,  10.00 ft / 3.05 m
      - Aft deck:   45.00 %,  10.00 ft / 3.05 m,  10.00 ft / 3.05 m
      - Quarter deck:   15.00 %,  10.00 ft / 3.05 m,  10.00 ft / 3.05 m
      - Average freeboard:      10.62 ft / 3.24 m
   Ship tends to be wet forward

Ship space, strength and comments:
   Space   - Hull below water (magazines/engines, low = better): 150.7 %
      - Above water (accommodation/working, high = better): 78.3 %
   Waterplane Area: 10,965 Square feet or 1,019 Square metres
   Displacement factor (Displacement / loading): 90 %
   Structure weight / hull surface area: 68 lbs/sq ft or 330 Kg/sq metre
   Hull strength (Relative):
      - Cross-sectional: 0.97
      - Longitudinal: 1.21
      - Overall: 1.00
   Hull space for machinery, storage, compartmentation is cramped
   Room for accommodation and workspaces is cramped
   Good seaboat, rides out heavy weather easily

Misc Weight
6t belowdecks for 2 forward torpedo tubes and 4 reloads
25t above deck for long range wireless

Nobody

And finally the one with the heavy 15cm battery you requested:
K8000e, German Export Armored Cruiser laid down 1901 (Engine 1900)

Displacement:
   8.000 t light; 8.419 t standard; 9.183 t normal; 9.794 t full load

Dimensions: Length (overall / waterline) x beam x draught (normal/deep)
   (419,95 ft / 413,39 ft) x 59,06 ft x (24,93 / 26,22 ft)
   (128,00 m / 126,00 m) x 18,00 m  x (7,60 / 7,99 m)

Armament:
      4 - 8,27" / 210 mm 40,0 cal guns - 238,10lbs / 108,00kg shells, 120 per gun
     Breech loading guns in turret on barbette mounts, 1901 Model
     2 x 2-gun mounts on centreline ends, evenly spread
      6 - 8,27" / 210 mm 40,0 cal guns - 238,10lbs / 108,00kg shells, 100 per gun
     Breech loading guns in deck and hoist mounts, 1901 Model
     6 x Single mounts on sides, evenly spread
      12 - 5,91" / 150 mm 40,0 cal guns - 88,18lbs / 40,00kg shells, 110 per gun
     Breech loading guns in casemate mounts, 1901 Model
     12 x Single mounts on sides, evenly spread
      12 hull mounts in casemates- Limited use in all but light seas
      8 - 4,13" / 105 mm 40,0 cal guns - 37,48lbs / 17,00kg shells, 150 per gun
     Quick firing guns in deck mounts, 1901 Model
     8 x Single mounts on sides, evenly spread
      8 raised mounts
      4 - 1,46" / 37,0 mm 20,0 cal guns - 0,97lbs / 0,44kg shells, 1.500 per gun
     Auto rapid fire guns in deck mounts, 1901 Model
     4 x Single mounts on side ends, evenly spread
      4 double raised mounts
      Weight of broadside 3.743 lbs / 1.698 kg

Armour:
   - Belts:      Width (max)   Length (avg)      Height (avg)
   Main:   7,09" / 180 mm   305,12 ft / 93,00 m   9,22 ft / 2,81 m
   Ends:   3,94" / 100 mm   108,27 ft / 33,00 m   9,22 ft / 2,81 m
   Upper:   3,94" / 100 mm   275,59 ft / 84,00 m   8,01 ft / 2,44 m
     Main Belt covers 114% of normal length

   - Gun armour:   Face (max)   Other gunhouse (avg)   Barbette/hoist (max)
   Main:   8,27" / 210 mm   3,94" / 100 mm      7,09" / 180 mm
   2nd:   5,91" / 150 mm   1,57" / 40 mm      5,91" / 150 mm
   3rd:   5,51" / 140 mm   2,36" / 60 mm      4,72" / 120 mm
   4th:   1,18" / 30 mm         -               -

   - Protected deck - single deck:
   For and Aft decks: 1,38" / 35 mm
   Forecastle: 1,18" / 30 mm  Quarter deck: 1,38" / 35 mm

   - Conning towers: Forward 7,87" / 200 mm, Aft 1,97" / 50 mm

Machinery:
   Coal fired boilers, complex reciprocating steam engines,
   Direct drive, 3 shafts, 14.996 ihp / 11.187 Kw = 20,00 kts
   Range 5.800nm at 10,00 kts
   Bunker at max displacement = 1.375 tons (100% coal)

Complement:
   468 - 609

Cost:
   £0,895 million / $3,581 million

Distribution of weights at normal displacement:
   Armament: 846 tons, 9,2%
      - Guns: 846 tons, 9,2%
   Armour: 2.470 tons, 26,9%
      - Belts: 1.347 tons, 14,7%
      - Armament: 607 tons, 6,6%
      - Armour Deck: 423 tons, 4,6%
      - Conning Towers: 93 tons, 1,0%
   Machinery: 2.343 tons, 25,5%
   Hull, fittings & equipment: 2.305 tons, 25,1%
   Fuel, ammunition & stores: 1.183 tons, 12,9%
   Miscellaneous weights: 35 tons, 0,4%
      - Hull below water: 5 tons
      - Hull above water: 5 tons
      - Above deck: 25 tons

Overall survivability and seakeeping ability:
   Survivability (Non-critical penetrating hits needed to sink ship):
     7.123 lbs / 3.231 Kg = 25,2 x 8,3 " / 210 mm shells or 1,2 torpedoes
   Stability (Unstable if below 1.00): 1,23
   Metacentric height 3,3 ft / 1,0 m
   Roll period: 13,6 seconds
   Steadiness   - As gun platform (Average = 50 %): 75 %
         - Recoil effect (Restricted arc if above 1.00): 0,62
   Seaboat quality  (Average = 1.00): 1,50

Hull form characteristics:
   Hull has a flush deck,
     a ram bow and a cruiser stern
   Block coefficient (normal/deep): 0,528 / 0,536
   Length to Beam Ratio: 7,00 : 1
   'Natural speed' for length: 20,33 kts
   Power going to wave formation at top speed: 47 %
   Trim (Max stability = 0, Max steadiness = 100): 50
   Bow angle (Positive = bow angles forward): -15,00 degrees
   Stern overhang: -3,28 ft / -1,00 m
   Freeboard (% = length of deck as a percentage of waterline length):
            Fore end,    Aft end
      - Forecastle:   20,00%,  18,31 ft / 5,58 m,  14,76 ft / 4,50 m
      - Forward deck:   30,00%,  14,76 ft / 4,50 m,  14,24 ft / 4,34 m
      - Aft deck:   35,00%,  14,24 ft / 4,34 m,  14,24 ft / 4,34 m
      - Quarter deck:   15,00%,  14,24 ft / 4,34 m,  14,76 ft / 4,50 m
      - Average freeboard:      14,75 ft / 4,49 m
   Ship tends to be wet forward

Ship space, strength and comments:
   Space   - Hull below water (magazines/engines, low = better): 111,8%
      - Above water (accommodation/working, high = better): 97,5%
   Waterplane Area: 16.691 Square feet or 1.551 Square metres
   Displacement factor (Displacement / loading): 93%
   Structure weight / hull surface area: 106 lbs/sq ft or 518 Kg/sq metre
   Hull strength (Relative):
      - Cross-sectional: 0,93
      - Longitudinal: 2,01
      - Overall: 1,00
   Cramped machinery, storage, compartmentation space
   Adequate accommodation and workspace room
   Ship has slow, easy roll, a good, steady gun platform
   Excellent seaboat, comfortable, can fire her guns in the heaviest weather

Delta Force

Quote from: Darman on February 16, 2013, 05:40:11 PM
Here's a tough question now... because I'd prefer to have the country who's design I'm using build the ship... Who is going to have BP for sale and the slips available in HY1-1901?

I'll have enough slips available for ships and likely enough BP, although if I don't have enough BP I have enough money to purchase some even before payment is taken into account.

KWorld

Quote from: KWorld on February 15, 2013, 08:20:36 AM
Quote from: Nobody on February 14, 2013, 06:13:27 AM
I not sure if you can put that many guns on something rather smaller, but I have some more pressing concerns about those (rule wise):
  • superfiring (open) deck mounts in 1901? For a - what could be considered a major caliber gun no less - I think not. The earliest ship I can think of with something remotely similar are late WW1 destroyers.
  • you can't just leave out the upper or end belt in an armored cruiser! That's classic "all or nothing" thinking, not yet invented. I think you would at least need something like 2 inches or 40-50% or your main armor thickness there.
1 - Per the rules for light cruiser architecture:
1900: Ammunition hoists, deck torpedo armament, superfiring mounts.

I found a couple pictures of very early US TBDs with superfiring mounts.  They're smaller than 6", admittedly, but they're 3" superfiring over 6-pounders.

http://www.navsource.org/archives/05/0501512.jpg

http://www.navsource.org/archives/05/0501503.jpg (same as above, but not colorized)


Tanthalas

I htink Kworld is fine honestly, the rules allow for the layout he is using.

Quote from: KWorld on February 18, 2013, 05:53:59 AM
Quote from: KWorld on February 15, 2013, 08:20:36 AM
Quote from: Nobody on February 14, 2013, 06:13:27 AM
I not sure if you can put that many guns on something rather smaller, but I have some more pressing concerns about those (rule wise):
  • superfiring (open) deck mounts in 1901? For a - what could be considered a major caliber gun no less - I think not. The earliest ship I can think of with something remotely similar are late WW1 destroyers.
  • you can't just leave out the upper or end belt in an armored cruiser! That's classic "all or nothing" thinking, not yet invented. I think you would at least need something like 2 inches or 40-50% or your main armor thickness there.
1 - Per the rules for light cruiser architecture:
1900: Ammunition hoists, deck torpedo armament, superfiring mounts.

I found a couple pictures of very early US TBDs with superfiring mounts.  They're smaller than 6", admittedly, but they're 3" superfiring over 6-pounders.

http://www.navsource.org/archives/05/0501512.jpg

http://www.navsource.org/archives/05/0501503.jpg (same as above, but not colorized)
"He either fears his fate too much,
Or his desserts are small,
Who dares not put it to the touch,
To win or lose it all!"

James Graham, 5th Earl of Montrose
1612 to 1650
Royalist General during the English Civil War

Darman

Brazil has awarded the contract for the protected cruisers to Germany and for the armored cruiser the contract goes to the United States. 

Delta Force

How did the Brazilians make their decision for the ships? Can we have a breakdown of how they were judged like with the Congo contract? For the armored cruisers in particular there were a lot of interesting concepts. I might actually order some of the Italian ACs myself.

snip

Quote from: Delta Force on February 20, 2013, 10:42:12 PM
How did the Brazilians make their decision for the ships? Can we have a breakdown of how they were judged like with the Congo contract? For the armored cruisers in particular there were a lot of interesting concepts. I might actually order some of the Italian ACs myself.

<sarcasm>Yes, because the Italians will totally build ships for the Russians when those ships can be pointed at Japan, her ally. And the third member in the UK will just let this slide seeing as it has no independent in relations with Japan. This makes total sense.</sarcasm>
You smug-faced crowds with kindling eye
Who cheer when solider lads march by
Sneak home and pray that you'll never know
The hell where youth and laughter go.
-Siegfried Sassoon

Tanthalas

Italy presented proposals from our great naval designers.  However Italian yard capacity goes first well Italia, then to her allies.

Quote from: snip on February 20, 2013, 11:25:46 PM
Quote from: Delta Force on February 20, 2013, 10:42:12 PM
How did the Brazilians make their decision for the ships? Can we have a breakdown of how they were judged like with the Congo contract? For the armored cruisers in particular there were a lot of interesting concepts. I might actually order some of the Italian ACs myself.

<sarcasm>Yes, because the Italians will totally build ships for the Russians when those ships can be pointed at Japan, her ally. And the third member in the UK will just let this slide seeing as it has no independent in relations with Japan. This makes total sense.</sarcasm>
"He either fears his fate too much,
Or his desserts are small,
Who dares not put it to the touch,
To win or lose it all!"

James Graham, 5th Earl of Montrose
1612 to 1650
Royalist General during the English Civil War

Delta Force

The defense industry was a lot more lasiez-faire before World War I. The UK used Austro-Hungarian siege mortars in the Boer War, Russia purchased Krupp artillery for Krondstadt, and the triple turrets of Tegetthoff were originally designed for an IRN order. Everyone was selling to everyone until after the Great War, although of course there were still protected technologies like rapid fire artillery.

Darman

Quote from: Delta Force on February 20, 2013, 10:42:12 PM
How did the Brazilians make their decision for the ships? Can we have a breakdown of how they were judged like with the Congo contract? For the armored cruisers in particular there were a lot of interesting concepts. I might actually order some of the Italian ACs myself.

The Brazilians had to balance many aspects when making their decisions about what design to choose and who to choose to build it for them.  Emphasis was on whoever designed the warship also being the one to build it.  The Brazilians have a history of using German shipyards for constructing smaller vessels for their navy, so of course the Germans had a little bit of a leg up in this contest.  Speed was important for the Brazilians, the PC design chosen went 21.5kn and was certainly not heavily armed or armored.  The AC design went 20.5kn and was armed with 10" guns, providing the Brazilian fleet with what they deemed to be a sufficiently heavy punch.

I can assure you that  this is not the last design competition for Brazil.  Rumors have already reached their ears regarding the possibility that Chile may be exploring acquiring a battleship.  Such an escalation on the part of the Chileans would require further investment by Brazil in their capital ship fleet. 

snip

Quote from: Delta Force on February 21, 2013, 12:05:50 AM
The defense industry was a lot more lasiez-faire before World War I. The UK used Austro-Hungarian siege mortars in the Boer War, Russia purchased Krupp artillery for Krondstadt, and the triple turrets of Tegetthoff were originally designed for an IRN order. Everyone was selling to everyone until after the Great War, although of course there were still protected technologies like rapid fire artillery.

All may not be as was
You smug-faced crowds with kindling eye
Who cheer when solider lads march by
Sneak home and pray that you'll never know
The hell where youth and laughter go.
-Siegfried Sassoon

KWorld

Quote from: snip on February 21, 2013, 08:26:04 AM
Quote from: Delta Force on February 21, 2013, 12:05:50 AM
The defense industry was a lot more lasiez-faire before World War I. The UK used Austro-Hungarian siege mortars in the Boer War, Russia purchased Krupp artillery for Krondstadt, and the triple turrets of Tegetthoff were originally designed for an IRN order. Everyone was selling to everyone until after the Great War, although of course there were still protected technologies like rapid fire artillery.

All may not be as was

Certainly possible, but at this point, if it is, most of us don't know that.