The Philippines

Started by KWorld, September 16, 2012, 08:44:39 AM

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KWorld

A quick sketch of a possible reason why the the Philippines never fell in this timeline.

Divergences from history:
On February 2, 1898, the US Asiatic Squadron was ordered back to Pearl Harbor.  The intent was to have the cruisers USS Olympia and USS Baltimore reinforce the Atlantic Squadron, while the battleship USS Oregon reinforced the Asiatic Squadron, but Baltimore suffered an major engineering breakdown en route.  This resulted in the USS Oregon being suddenly ordered to make the long run around the Horn, in company with the Olympia.  The two ships rendezvoused at San Francisco while Oregon loaded ammunition, and they left for the Horn and the Atlantic in company.

At Pearl Harbor, the Asiatic Squadron, minus it's two heaviest ships and it's reinforcement, could only wait while the Baltimore was repaired.  The USN's intent was that as soon as Baltimore was repaired, the squadron would sail on Manila (since the Baltimore wasn't going to the Atlantic, the belief was the squadron was still strong enough to attack the Spanish in the Philippines).  However, Washington was not good at keeping secrets, so this plan soon reached the ears of the Spanish, who sent the 2nd Squadron (battleship Pelayo, armored cruiser Emperador Carlos V, the auxilliary cruisers Patriota and Rapido, 3 destroyers and 2 transports) east to the Philippines, leaving Cadiz on March 26.  This squadron, with the Italians controlling Egypt, had fewer problems than historical passing through Suez and hence were at anchor in Manila at the time of the Battle of Santiago de Cuba.  The Spanish government did not recall the squadron after that battle, realizing it would take weeks for it to get home and doubting the ability of the USN to actually successfully attack the Spanish mainland with ships that were mostly designed for coastal defence.

Baltimore had finally been made right by mid April, but with the prospect of the Spanish 2nd Squadron's arrival in Manila being around the same time as the US Asiatic Squadron's, the USN decided not to risk the battle against a stronger foe.  With the fall of Cuba and Puerto Rico, peace negotiations began and  the war ended in August of 1898.

snip

Well the UK still holds the canal proper, so someone else (Italy or the Ottomans) would have to lean on the UK on Spain's behalf.  I think draging that war on til 1912 is a bit extreem, unless it was just a typo :P
You smug-faced crowds with kindling eye
Who cheer when solider lads march by
Sneak home and pray that you'll never know
The hell where youth and laughter go.
-Siegfried Sassoon

Nobody

Germany could have had a major impact in that conflict, if they had chosen to take part. I remember reading, that the fleet they sent "to observe", was bigger (and more powerful) than the US one. But they were more interested in gaining an interesting colony than supporting spain...

KWorld

Quote from: snip on September 16, 2012, 11:04:46 AM
Well the UK still holds the canal proper, so someone else (Italy or the Ottomans) would have to lean on the UK on Spain's behalf.  I think draging that war on til 1912 is a bit extreem, unless it was just a typo :P

Historically, Egypt refused to allow the squadron to tranship coal at Port Said because of "neutrality concerns".  If the squadron gets there before the war starts, that's not a concern.  If there's no "Egyptian" government (and with the map we have, there probably isn't), it also wouldn't be a concern.

Yeah, 1912 was just... off.  Should be 1898, as historical.

snip

As long as there is no war on, and all the i's are dotted and t's crossed as far as paperwork is concerned, I see no reason to disallow the passage. Do note that those ships might not exist, but Im sure Logi would have ships to substitue.
You smug-faced crowds with kindling eye
Who cheer when solider lads march by
Sneak home and pray that you'll never know
The hell where youth and laughter go.
-Siegfried Sassoon

KWorld

Quote from: Nobody on September 16, 2012, 11:19:54 AM
Germany could have had a major impact in that conflict, if they had chosen to take part. I remember reading, that the fleet they sent "to observe", was bigger (and more powerful) than the US one. But they were more interested in gaining an interesting colony than supporting spain...

Bigger in tonnage, yes.  However, the flagship Kaiser  was an old refitted ironclad built in 1875, the armored cruiser Kaiserin Augusta was solid enough but probably not a match for Olympia, and the other cruisers dated from the 1880s. Would have been messy.

Tanthalas

With no war on yet I dont see an issue with their passage, honestly other than posibly fueling I would see it as strictly a british matter (trying to posibly set the tone for Anglo/Italian Relations here Heck posibly even Spanish/Italian)
"He either fears his fate too much,
Or his desserts are small,
Who dares not put it to the touch,
To win or lose it all!"

James Graham, 5th Earl of Montrose
1612 to 1650
Royalist General during the English Civil War

snip

You said you dont like forts? Be ready to assaut lots of them if you want to take the canal ;)
You smug-faced crowds with kindling eye
Who cheer when solider lads march by
Sneak home and pray that you'll never know
The hell where youth and laughter go.
-Siegfried Sassoon

Nobody

Quote from: KWorld on September 16, 2012, 12:11:26 PM
Quote from: Nobody on September 16, 2012, 11:19:54 AM
Germany could have had a major impact in that conflict, if they had chosen to take part. I remember reading, that the fleet they sent "to observe", was bigger (and more powerful) than the US one. But they were more interested in gaining an interesting colony than supporting spain...

Bigger in tonnage, yes.  However, the flagship Kaiser  was an old refitted ironclad built in 1875, the armored cruiser Kaiserin Augusta was solid enough but probably not a match for Olympia, and the other cruisers dated from the 1880s. Would have been messy.
Do you have a list of all the German ships involved? Because I couldn't find one and only hat that side-note.

KWorld

Apparently 5 warships of the German navy appeared in Manila at the same time: SMS Kaiser, SMS Kaiserin Augusta, SMS Irene, SMS Prinzess Wilhelm, and SMS Cormoran under the flag of Otto von Diederichs (on Kaiserin Augusta),  The gunboat SMS Iltis was also part of the squadron, but not present at that time.

KWorld

Heh, just had a thought: since the US isn't in the Philippines here, and definitely not fighting the Moro Rebellion, odds are extremely good that the US military will never develop the .45 ACP cartridge.  Whatever semi-automatic pistol is adopted, it will probably be chambered in a different and less powerful cartridge.

Tanthalas

as a huge fan of the 45 acp and 1911 pistol that would be a sad sad thing.  I think that Browning would have still used the cart but I dont have any sources available to defend that.

Quote from: KWorld on September 19, 2012, 05:10:24 AM
Heh, just had a thought: since the US isn't in the Philippines here, and definitely not fighting the Moro Rebellion, odds are extremely good that the US military will never develop the .45 ACP cartridge.  Whatever semi-automatic pistol is adopted, it will probably be chambered in a different and less powerful cartridge.
"He either fears his fate too much,
Or his desserts are small,
Who dares not put it to the touch,
To win or lose it all!"

James Graham, 5th Earl of Montrose
1612 to 1650
Royalist General during the English Civil War

KWorld

Quote from: Tanthalas on September 19, 2012, 08:52:20 AM
as a huge fan of the 45 acp and 1911 pistol that would be a sad sad thing.  I think that Browning would have still used the cart but I dont have any sources available to defend that.

Quote from: KWorld on September 19, 2012, 05:10:24 AM
Heh, just had a thought: since the US isn't in the Philippines here, and definitely not fighting the Moro Rebellion, odds are extremely good that the US military will never develop the .45 ACP cartridge.  Whatever semi-automatic pistol is adopted, it will probably be chambered in a different and less powerful cartridge.

I doubt that the cartridge would ever be invented: it's a result of the Moro Rebellion and the Thompson-LaGarde tests of 1904, which would not have happened without the impetus of the reports from the Philippines.  Those tests came to the conclusion that .45 was the best bore size for a pistol, without them the US is likely to stay with something smaller in bore (the .36" ".38 Long Colt" used in the period revolvers, for example).

Tanthalas

Oh I agree on that part, but Browning was a tinkerer he legitimatly loved playing aorund with firearms.  I can easily see him still developing the 1911 and the 45 acp in our alternative timeline.  Perhaps not for the US but he was already playing with slide semi autos in 1898 (first production version was in 1900 if I remember right in 38 cal)

Quote from: KWorld on September 19, 2012, 09:05:00 AM
Quote from: Tanthalas on September 19, 2012, 08:52:20 AM
as a huge fan of the 45 acp and 1911 pistol that would be a sad sad thing.  I think that Browning would have still used the cart but I dont have any sources available to defend that.

Quote from: KWorld on September 19, 2012, 05:10:24 AM
Heh, just had a thought: since the US isn't in the Philippines here, and definitely not fighting the Moro Rebellion, odds are extremely good that the US military will never develop the .45 ACP cartridge.  Whatever semi-automatic pistol is adopted, it will probably be chambered in a different and less powerful cartridge.

I doubt that the cartridge would ever be invented: it's a result of the Moro Rebellion and the Thompson-LaGarde tests of 1904, which would not have happened without the impetus of the reports from the Philippines.  Those tests came to the conclusion that .45 was the best bore size for a pistol, without them the US is likely to stay with something smaller in bore (the .36" ".38 Long Colt" used in the period revolvers, for example).
"He either fears his fate too much,
Or his desserts are small,
Who dares not put it to the touch,
To win or lose it all!"

James Graham, 5th Earl of Montrose
1612 to 1650
Royalist General during the English Civil War

KWorld

Quote from: Tanthalas on September 19, 2012, 09:16:33 AM
Oh I agree on that part, but Browning was a tinkerer he legitimatly loved playing aorund with firearms.  I can easily see him still developing the 1911 and the 45 acp in our alternative timeline.  Perhaps not for the US but he was already playing with slide semi autos in 1898 (first production version was in 1900 if I remember right in 38 cal)

Yeah, the Colt M1900 was first built in .38 ACP (NOT the same thing as .380 ACP, originally more like .38 Super without the semi-rim).  There's also the 9.65/9.8mm ACP cartridge, which is an actual .38, instead of the .355 bore of the ".38" cartridges.