Discussion of the Maori and New Swiss War...

[TexanCowboy]

If the Gran Columbian delegate is informally asked, he might state that he tends to agree with his allies; but no formal statement is made.

[miketr]

Well... to be quite honest foxy's missions are just as ASB.  ;)

ASB=Alien Space Bats, usual terminology for 'impossible' in alternate history fiction.

We already have established that we do weird stuff in Navalism but I do agree.

If nothing else pulling the Maori Merchant Marine like this should have vast negative effects.

Michael

[Valles]

If you look back at previous wars, you'll see that I've always pulled in my merchant fleet whenever the commerce raiding started.

That wasn't just a means of preserving my neutrality and merchant fleet - it was in preparation for an operation just like this. The troops being used were kept mobilized throughout the previous six months - indeed, they always have been - and will have had time to drill on boarding and landing operations. The staff work, including awareness of this and other plans among the diplomatic corps, will have been done and polished in secret staff rooms long before that. This is not an improvised assault. It was always going to be New Switzerland, it was always going to involve a unified grand fleet and assembled merchant marine, it was always going to have one half or so of 'fine tuning' before it kicked off...

And it's still a known long shot operation, entered into because the relative economies and building capacities favor the New Swiss and are unlikely to be overcome any other way. But Phoenix is by all indications a primate city, if not within the Swiss Confederation then certainly within the United States of New Switzerland. Taking it - and, since I've gotten luckier than expected and gotten close enough to hinder opposition on the tactical scale, the military basing at Olympia - is reasonably nearly as much of a war-ending stroke for Foxy as losing my transport assets would be for me.

As for other powers hitting now...

...The DKB are a bit of a concern, because of the standing antipathy between them and the Maori and their undoubted ability to project consequences of a Maori victory forward by ten or fifteen years... But who else is going to help the Swiss?

[miketr]

Iberia has correct relations with NS, they are not toxic like NS has with most of the rest of the globe.   It would be reasonable to expect from things that Iberia's response is the limit of things; IE the diplomatic hissy fit.

Of course Iberia is ALWAYS worried about the safety of the Philippines and can see the effects of having NS conquered, it would destablize the entire Pacific Rim.  If it looks like NS is going down Iberia would have to consider some type of move from either helping the NS or taking a chunk off themselves to create a buffer zone between Philippines and NS Home islands.  Is would be open discussions among Iberian news papers.





 

[Desertfox]

I actually considered this to be a Foxy type mission round up your entire navy and entire merchant marine and send it off some where else to be attritted.

To be fair, it wasn't my entire navy and merchant marine, and the ships where supposed to turn around at the first sight of a superior force. There should have been no battle, and no destroyers running out of fuel.

What I do have a problem with is Maoria being completely self sufficient. It seems to small to be so...

[Valles]

The 'island' of Mayan is big enough that it probably flip-flops between 'largest island' and 'smallest continent' depending on who's doing the naming. Eyeballing the map, we're talking about a landmass the size of all of India, or of the US east of the Mississippi. Combine that with an economy that's more the period equivalent of modern-day Brazil than of someplace like Japan, and I think that limited foreign-hull trade for a period of as much as a couple of years would be no more than annoying to the citizenry and economy.

[Valles]

*shrug* Whatever happens, I win on at least one count.

If the invasion works, I win the war.

If the invasion fails but annihilates Phoenix in the bargain, I've crippled New Switzerland and - thanks to the wartime budget - found the cash to at least partly upgrade my military forces, resulting in a net gain for this turn and an overall winnable war.

If the invasion fails completely, costing me my elite corps and much of my fleet, then the Maori ability to project power is completely shattered, never to recover until long after the end of our game...

...and there will accordingly be no further need for me to stay wedded to the plotline and worldview that has been gnawing on my mind since I started playing. I have, several times, turned down opportunities to move to other nations, because I'm constitutionally not capable of leaving the matter of the Maori desire to return Home unfinished.

And after this long banging my head on that one wall, I'm perfectly prepared to accept 'they fail and are broken', since it is an ending.

As for the reports?

Desertfox's irresponsibility and metagaming are not my emergency.

[Blooded]

Hello again,

I think that limited foreign-hull trade for a period of as much as a couple of years would be no more than annoying to the citizenry and economy.

Disagree. Those ships are not military vessels sitting around port. The Merchant Marine is owned by people who make an income off of them. If they make an income they matter to the economy. As I suggested last post many would be used for fishing. Very important diet staple(unless some religious belief abhors fish).

I dont know what the climate of Maoria is like. It is not posted that I can see. If it is like Australia it is not self sufficient.

I would also suggest that a fairly backwards, poor and relatively primitive nation could not be self sufficient in 'modern' supplies. To maintain 'modern' standards, equipment would need to be imported to make up for the lack of local ability.

an economy that's more the period equivalent of modern-day Brazil than of someplace like Japan,

In comparison to other nations of navalism. The Maori have an 80% IC to POP ratio and 20% BP ratio. Ahead of China,mughal and Japan but behind egypt, Ottomans,NUS  and others in a spot check. Perhaps like the Army, there is a large 'primitve' population with a well off noble/merchant class.

Not trying to be a pain.  ::) I dont want to be the resident PITA. I know its a game. I am just trying to bring out how economy and techs should define a nation just as much as our personal desires.

Hopefully others will chime in here, I have a Ukraine to dismantle. MUAHaHAHA  ;)

[Blooded]

As for the reports?

Desertfox's irresponsibility and metagaming are not my emergency.

Most true... But...  :-\

...and there will accordingly be no further need for me to stay wedded to the plotline and worldview that has been gnawing on my mind since I started playing. I have, several times, turned down opportunities to move to other nations, because I'm constitutionally not capable of leaving the matter of the Maori desire to return Home unfinished.

The toughest hurdle I saw for the Maori were the general poor tech level at start(though Tanthalus attempted to immediately compensate for that) and the horrible army quality. Insurmountable if you want a Navy at all, Costs too much to bring it up to speed. Not sure why it was so awful(worst on the planet by far).

BTW... where is the Maori home if not Maoria?  ???

[snip]

The Maori have an 80% IC to POP ratio and 20% BP ratio. Ahead of China,mughal and Japan but behind egypt, Ottomans,NUS  and others in a spot check

yes, yes, make fun of my industrial base. The Dragon has awakened, and as soon as these pesky Republican Children are dealt with, well then we shall see just who can stand up to the might of the Middle Kingdom. ;D

[Logi]

Good luck with that ::)

[Valles]

Disagree. Those ships are not military vessels sitting around port. The Merchant Marine is owned by people who make an income off of them. If they make an income they matter to the economy. As I suggested last post many would be used for fishing. Very important diet staple(unless some religious belief abhors fish).

I dont know what the climate of Maoria is like. It is not posted that I can see. If it is like Australia it is not self sufficient.

I would also suggest that a fairly backwards, poor and relatively primitive nation could not be self sufficient in 'modern' supplies. To maintain 'modern' standards, equipment would need to be imported to make up for the lack of local ability.

I am not saying that ceasing merchant traffic would not affect the economy or the people - I am saying that that effect would not be militarily crippling in the way Desertfox was angling for. Personally, I wouldn't have counted the fishing fleet - and there is a very extensive one - as part of the merchant marine in the first place: merchant, in my mind, implies trade rather than resource acquisition.

Averaging in latitude, exposure to the sea, local ocean currents, and prevailing winds - I'd say the climate is something like the Pacific Northwest - Oregon, Washington, British Columbia. Not necessarily pleasant, but livable, and certainly farmable.

The Maori are world leaders in a couple of key fields and have solid abilities in a number of others; I don't think that there's evidence of a universal and systemic lack of technical ability, so much as there being so much that they could be doing that they can't because the money simply isn't there. They have a design for a top-flight autoloading magazine rifle - but can't afford to run the factory to produce them long enough to equip their entire army during peacetime, so they train the troops and wait until wartime procurement shakes the funding loose. And so on.

In comparison to other nations of navalism. The Maori have an 80% IC to POP ratio and 20% BP ratio. Ahead of China,mughal and Japan but behind egypt, Ottomans,NUS  and others in a spot check. Perhaps like the Army, there is a large 'primitve' population with a well off noble/merchant class.

Not trying to be a pain. I dont want to be the resident PITA. I know its a game. I am just trying to bring out how economy and techs should define a nation just as much as our personal desires.

Less nobility/peasantry than urban/rural, I think, but yes, there are large swathes of territory in Maoria where modernization simply hasn't yet penetrated significantly.

The toughest hurdle I saw for the Maori were the general poor tech level at start(though Tanthalus attempted to immediately compensate for that) and the horrible army quality. Insurmountable if you want a Navy at all, Costs too much to bring it up to speed. Not sure why it was so awful(worst on the planet by far).

*shrug* It was a tradeoff. My starting arrangement as given by the mods was something like 'baseline point totals, plus four techs'. Since that wasn't enough to manage to be even C-list on both land and sea, I had to pick one or the other to focus on.

BTW... where is the Maori home if not Maoria?

'Neue Brandenburg', aka Aotearoa, aka New Zealand - exactly the same place they're from in OTL. Maoria - aka Mayan - was originally settled by a different group of Polynesians who then spread thinly over the land and took in several times their number in refugees when the Prussians were thrown out of Europe and conquered themselves a new homeland.

[snip]

hmmmm...wonder how this is going to end up? Real gutsy move there Valles. Guess we could maybe talk about moving up the dates on some later CV techs? I think that after this the need for bringing air cover with you will become evident. Maritime strike as well.

[TexanCowboy]

A frantic request was sent to Phoenix and other airfields to forward more torpedoes.

So Phoenix is sending a request to Phoenix?  :P

[Kaiser Kirk]

As the last group flew overhead, Alizandro could have swore he hear someone yell "Where the hell is a Romanian when you need one!"

A couple of comments.

First, I find it unlikely that such a large force would get close to the New Swiss without getting spotted. Between standard patrols, merchants, and a fairly large aerial infrastructure including zeppelins and flying boats, spotting them <200nm out seems a bit unlikely.

Second, I'm having trouble with the rate of hits of the level bombers. Or at least from what it sounds like. 125 level bombers of 1916 vintage with untested crews against an actively defending fleet.

Compare this to the experience of "Force Z".  The Experience of Force Z off Malaysia factors into the problems the Bavarians have been having. The small British task force had terrible firecontrol- the HCAS system, which wasn' even working right, and fairly mediocre AA weapons. The Japanese, equipped with bombsights and veteran crews, attacked Prince of Wales and Repulse. The first 25 med bombers dropped 33 bombs for 8 near misses and 1 trivial hit.  Compare that to the hit rates of the Ostfriedland experiences, and we're really not looking at high hit rates for level bombers, even at low levels.  High level attacks- last I knew the USAAF still didn't have a confirmed hit.

The rate of torpedo success is unknown, but should be less than 40 hits, less detonations when duds are taken into effect.

Compared to the level bombing, the Torpedo attacks on Force Z were more successful. The wave of 16 torpedo bombers critically hit 1, then a subsequent wave landed 3 more which sank Prince of Wales. The unsteerable ship was still missed by all but 1 of the next wave of level bombers- again level bombing really not working well. .  Repulse, which had dodged 19 torpedos so far, was attacked by 26 planes and caught 2 torpedoes.

Overall, from 49 torpedo attacks, the Japanese, with "modern" torps, bombers, and veteran highly trained crews against poor AA, hit 6-8 times. Call it 12%.  Remember that many of these hits were repeats on ships already lamed- particularly the 3 on PoW. Further, the final strikes against Repulse came from trained crews flying a cross-hatch- something that this adhoc force can't manage. So against maneuvering ships smaller than Battleships the rate would be.... less.  Say 6%.  Now, the sheer mass of the Maori fleet does mean some misses will hit further on.

Third, finding such a large naval strike force made me curious. After all, torpedo strikes take different training and equipment than level bombing etc.   So I tried to look at the New Swiss Records and got more confused as the planes they use as examples in the 1918 OOB aren't torpedo carriers. That's storyline fluff of course, but the lack of information led me to digging. The 1919 report also made me wonder regarding readiness, but lacked enough info to easily check the numbers.

Composition of the New Swiss Airforce
All the planes would seem to be 1916 tech. The last explicit OOB was HY1/1918.
At that time
5 x Type 3 Airships
5 x Type 2 Airships
110 x 1914 Single Engine Aircraft
520 x 1916 Single Engine Aircraft
220 x 1916 Twin Engine Aircraft
 70 x 1916 Long Range Aircraft

In HY1/1918 – HY 2/1918  the following was added.
$3.5 for 5 Type 3 Zeppelins
$1 for 500 Single-engined aircraft
$1.2 for 200 multi-engine aircraft
$1.2 for 70 long-range aircraft
$0.2 for 100 single-engined aircraft "for civilian use"

That gives a total by HY1/1919 of
10 x Type 3 Airships
5 x Type 2 Airships
110 x 1914 Single Engine Aircraft
100 x 1916 Single Engine Aircraft 'for civilian use'
1020 x 1916 Single Engine Aircraft
420 x 1916 Twin Engine Aircraft
140 x 1916 Long Range Aircraft
-----
1790 aircraft

all of which costs ~ $16.35
and leads to the HY1/1919 report of :

F.  AIR OPERATIONS: $6

Order of Battle: In service (rebuilding)+training
Airships,   15(0)+5
Aircraft, 1690(0)+150

Maintanance: $2

Recruitment: $4

$3.5 for 5 Type 3 Zeppelins
$0.2 for 100 Single-engined aircraft
$0.3 for 50 multi-engine aircraft

From this we presume that the 110 1914 aircraft have been retired.
Maintenance costs would be
Active : $2.04
Wartime : $4.08

So...since that was the last SIM, we have to presume the New Swiss Airforce is on Active status, not Wartime. With the limited warning, the squadrons are at 50% strength. They won't have 425 bombers capable of scrambling and trying to carry torpedoes or modified 8" shells. Of the 560 aircraft reasonably capable of carrying torpedoes, at best only half are available- or 280. One can't figure all those are actually mission capable- call it 15% unavailable – leaving 238.  Then account for the fact the New Swiss divide their planes among 3 fields, and thus their ground crews as well. Simply moving to Pheonix for a coordinated strike will knock some further planes out for maintenance.

Of course one could presume that the Sydney airfield is not empty, say 1/3 are there. That leaves 160 planes between the two bases. Even a 100 mile flight to consolidate will claim some- say another 5 %, or 4 planes.  So the New Swiss can field 156 plane strike of mixed level and torpedo bombers.
With a 3% hit rate for level bombers (say 4x 8" shells) and a 6% for torpedo bombers that's something around 19 hits from level bombers OR 9 torpedo hits. Up to 18 Torp hits if you use a 12% rate...and then to figure the duds.

Also...why wouldn't the new Swiss send out the fighters to strafe and suppress the AA guns?