New Government in Holland.

[damocles]

There is Nigeria. The van Rijn government sends a diplomatic mission to  Lagos. Perhaps the kingdom  remembers the Dutch from the past with kindness? Who knows? Its worth a shot.

Diplomacy, diplomacy, diplomacy. Riksdollars can open doors where guns fail.

D.         

[damocles]

Next generation Fokker designs.



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The WJ-6 appears to be designed for some different role than the D-IV and the J-3. It has a high lift wing, reinforced undercarriage  and large flaps for use on very short land based airstrips .  

[damocles]

The NvR government still is beset  by food riots

A letter to King Lugwig III, NvR sends by courier. It contains a proposal to use Bavaria's good offices in Nigeria on behalf of Holland.

D.


 

[Guinness]

I need to chime in here:

Even in 1919 there was a worldwide market for basic foodstuffs. While from a strategic point of view, it would make sense for the Netherlands to seek to assure a food supply in a time of crisis, like a war, in peacetime it seems improbable to me that the Netherlands would experience a basic staple shortage when the rest of Europe does not. The Dutch would surely be wired directly into the wider grain marketplace of Europe. Also I expect,given their trading interests in the far east, especially if food prices began trending high, some enterprising importers would be working hard to import rice from the East Indies post-haste.

There are also a number of other net-exporters of foodstuffs, including (I expect) the CSA, UNK in N. America, and Rohan, probably Bharat, and quite possibly the DKB and New Switzerland, among others.

Finally, I think it would be really surprising if the Congo was ever a major food supplier for the Netherlands, given its poor development situation and lack of large scale agricultural development historically.

[miketr]

I think Ukraine would be a good bet in Europe.  Kongo was mineral resources not food, at least not basic food stuffs.

Michael

[Guinness]

Right. Sorry, I should have qualified that paragraph with "Outside of Europe". Within Europe, France is almost certainly a net-exporter, as is Ukraine, and maybe even Bavaria and Russia.

[miketr]

Russia yes but not Bavaria, at least not without massive imports of nitrates, use of phosphates and high grade feed for live stock.  I have read a number of works on Germany's economy in WW1. 

[damocles]

Right now Holland  has to import food.

I sort of looked at what that might mean in 1914-1918 RTL. What I discovered was that Holland was in quite a pickle. Officially neutral in the Great War, she was in effect
blockaded as much as Germany was so that the Germans could not use her as a conduit for overseas trade. Result?: food shortages, a lot of them.

Now we have the Nverse. Holland has ticked off a lot of the Far East powers. NOI is half a world away and rice spoils in a hold if it transits too long. (40 days?)

France has already offered to help, but 5000 tons of food a day means 200 freight cars and 20 locomotives running back and forth along the Dutch and French railroads daily. Its cheaper to ship the grain in on freighters that already exist for this purpose rather than spend a year to build specialized railroad rolling stock that doesn't exist yet.

No other nation besides France and Bavaria has offered to help. There are consequences to the Siam War and the sale of the Kongo for the Dutch. This is one of those consequences. Diplomatic isolation and economic dislocation are the natural results of two wrong choices.

The UNK is an option, so is the CSA and Gran Columbia, but frankly, as the situation is, where would the Dutch turn to first? Their allies and friendly neutrals. France, Bavaria and the ESC first.  Then they might approach other nations for help.

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Meanwhile;



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D.            

[Guinness]

My point is this: There is no war on right now. Nation states need not declare that they are giving help.

This part makes the leftist in me twitch a little (and I'm not trying to spark a modern day political/economic discussion), but:

The free market ought to be reigning here. If there are hungry people who can pay in Holland, there will be people willing to bring food there to sell. This could be small scale sales at or near borders, this could be ships laden with grain and rice, or it could be barge traffic along the coast, etc., but it's going to happen, unless someone takes action to prevent it.

As far as I know, no one is blockading the Dutch. Siam *might* be taking measures to prevent rice sales to Dutch buyers, but we Mods have not decided that to be the case, so instead that should be the status quo. We expect Siam is a major rice producer, but in reality this would merely be a drop in the bucket when compared to the food flowing back and forth among the mercantile minded nations of Europe.

Similarly, I'd be very surpised today if the CSA or Rohan is proactively preventing grain exports anywhere, but those players can speak up, as can Blooded about Russia. GC may be a net exporter of food as well at this point. I'm also fairly certain the UNK is not actively embargoing food trade, and if not, I expect Norman traders would happily like to make a few pounds gouging the Dutch if necessary.

Now what might be happening isn't a food shortage, per-sea, but a gradual rising of prices in Holland, which might just make people unhappy enough to unseat governments and burn their neighbors' furniture in the streets. This seems conceivable to me. I wouldn't necessarily call that a shortage though.

[damocles]

My point is this: There is no war on right now. Nation states need not declare that they are giving help.[/quote[

True.

This part makes the leftist in me twitch a little (and I'm not trying to spark a modern day political/economic discussion), but:

The free market ought to be reigning here. If there are hungry people who can pay in Holland, there will be people willing to bring food there to sell. This could be small scale sales at or near borders, this could be ships laden with grain and rice, or it could be barge traffic along the coast, etc., but it's going to happen, unless someone takes action to prevent it.

1. Unless I read the diplomacy wrong, the Far East aside from the RRC and Japan is closed.
2. In Europe......



the food comes in through the channel ports, or through Bavaria or France. Ship or rail, that is the geography.  Mostly by ship.  

As far as I know, no one is blockading the Dutch. Siam *might* be taking measures to prevent rice sales to Dutch buyers, but we Mods have not decided that to be the case, so instead that should be the status quo. We expect Siam is a major rice producer, but in reality this would merely be a drop in the bucket when compared to the food flowing back and forth among the mercantile minded nations of Europe.

Approach routes. Those who can help already do. The overseas trade has not spoken. 

Similarly, I'd be very surprised today if the CSA or Rohan is proactively preventing grain exports anywhere, but those players can speak up, as can Blooded about Russia. GC may be a net exporter of food as well at this point. I'm also fairly certain the UNK is not actively embargoing food trade, and if not, I expect Norman traders would happily like to make a few pounds gouging the Dutch if necessary.

Economics. The Dutch and the Normans? 

Now what might be happening isn't a food shortage, per-sea, but a gradual rising of prices in Holland, which might just make people unhappy enough to unseat governments and burn their neighbors' furniture in the streets. This seems conceivable to me. I wouldn't necessarily call that a shortage though.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9C01E0DD1F38E533A25750C1A9629C946996D6CF

[Guinness]

Please, let's not confuse the actions of our nations with the actions of our (hypothetical) citizens and residents.

The UNK and the Kingdom of the Netherlands both promote or at the very least allow largely free market economies. So even though the UNK really really doesn't like the Dutch, it's still a long way from saying that the UNK actively prevents Norman goods (ie food) from being exported to the Dutch when it's in their own best interests for that food to be exported. Similarly, the Dutch might prevent the import of food from the Normans, but it seems unlikely they'd do so in this circumstance.

Ditto French ports, and certainly the Dutch friends, the ESC would not actively prevent import of food to the Dutch, no?

Also, that NYT article you linked is interesting, but most interesting to me in that it came in 1918, after 4 years of war. The last Pacific war, which was a long long long way from Holland, lasted barely 6 months, with not even economic measures being taken by Dutch neighbors in Europe. I don't think it would have nearly the effect that the de facto blockade of Dutch ports during WW1 had.

I understand the storyline, and I applaud it, I just feel compelled to point out some issues that make it less believable.

[Guinness]

I probably need to make my motivation clear here: I'm perfectly ok with Dutchmen smashing store windows and burning bits in the streets because they can't get vegetables for stamppot cheap enough. I also do think it makes sense that as a point of national policy the Dutch make sure they can get food when they need it from somewhere.

What I think is important to note is that this is specifically a Dutch problem, and not a signal of a more general regionwide or worldwide food crisis. The Dutch economy took a hard hit when it's merchantmen were withdrawn from the seas during the last war, and this is a symptom of that. Or at least, that's now my understanding of Damocles' intentions.

[miketr]

What I think would happen is the cost of food would rise as food stuffs were bought from France, UNK and Baltics.  I see no reason at all for shortages unless you mean the poor having food problems as thats possible with increased prices.

Michael

[Guinness]

unless you mean the poor having food problems as thats possible with increased prices.

That seems like the most plausible scenario to me as well, yes. You may also get some market hysteria along the lines of "I heard Tomatoes are running out and that's why they quadrupled in price, we better start hoarding." Sort of what we went through in Atlanta a couple of years ago with gasoline after Hurricane Katrina.

[P3D]

Most probably French deliveries will be by barges not rail, inland waterways are extensive.

Nverse Netherlands need to import foodstuff more than OTL. OTL it was a leader in intensive agriculture, but that won't help with the Nverse larger population.
If an alternative of the French deliveries is sought, it should be Ukraine-Poland. Outside Europe, it would be South America - but with higher than OTL population they don't have that much available for export - they have to grow wheat on the OTL cattle pastures.