The Quest for Oil...

[The Rock Doctor]

I've been advised that Peru has 50 IC.

[Borys]

Ahoj!
EDITED:
Not all have been fleshed out. I added whatever I could find.

Major Powers
Terra Australis ('Maoria') - unclaimed, not designed

Medium Powers
Mughal - unclaimed, 30 IC
Bharat - unclaimed, 40 IC
Peru - unclaimed, 50 IC
Mesoamerica - unclaimed, n/a - expect 30-40
Argentina - unclaimed, n/a - expect 30-40

Minor Powers
Firanj - unclaimed, 20 IC (?)
Egypt - unclaimed, 20 IC
Siam - unclaimed, 6 IC
Burma - unclaimed, 6 IC
Persia - unclaimed, 10 IC (?)
New Zion - unclaimed. 8 IC
Romania - unclaimed, n/a - expect - 6-10
Malgas - unclaimed, n/a - expect 3-6
Nigeria - unclaimed, n/a - expect 3-10

Nation   ,   IC   ,   Current?
Baltic Confederation   ,   93   ,   1906
Bavaria   ,   49   ,   
Confederate States of America   ,   97   ,   
Deutsches Kaiserreich Brandenburg   ,   75   ,   
French Republic   ,   188.5   ,   
Gran Colombia   ,   111.5   ,   
Hapsburg Empire   ,   73   ,   
Iberian Empire   ,   51.5   ,   
Italy   ,   44.5   ,   1906
Japan   ,   45   ,   (H2 1907)
Kiev   ,   42   ,   1906
Middle Kingdom   ,   112   ,   
Russia   ,   67.4   ,   
New Switzerland   ,   88   ,   
Orange Republic   ,   99   ,   
Rohan   ,   113   ,   
The Netherlands   ,   78   ,   
United Norman Kingdom   ,   111   ,   
Ottoman Empire   ,   57   ,   1906
RoC (Taiwan and Hainan)   ,   13   ,   
]

[miketr]

WARNING LONG POST

I said before I am stuck in bed for the weekend right?

Nation   ,   IC   ,   
French Republic   ,   188.5   ,   
Rohan   ,   113   ,   
Middle Kingdom   ,   112   ,   
Gran Colombia   ,   111.5   ,   
United Norman Kingdom   ,   111   ,   
Orange Republic   ,   99   ,   
Confederate States of America   ,   97   ,   
Baltic Confederation   ,   93   ,   1906
New Switzerland   ,   88   ,   
The Netherlands   ,   78   ,   
Deutsches Kaiserreich Brandenburg   ,   75   ,   
Hapsburg Empire   ,   73   ,   
Russia   ,   67.4   ,   
Ottoman Empire   ,   57   ,   1906
Iberian Empire   ,   51.5   ,   
Bavaria   ,   49   ,   
Japan   ,   45   ,   (H2 1907)
Italy   ,   44.5   ,   1906
Kiev   ,   42   ,   1906
RoC (Taiwan and Hainan)   ,   13   ,   
Terra Australis ('Maoria') - unclaimed   ,      ,   
Mughal - unclaimed   ,   30   ,   
Bharat - unclaimed   ,   40   ,   
Burma - unclaimed   ,   6   ,   
Peru - unclaimed   ,   50   ,   
Mesoamerica - unclaimed   ,   45   ,   
Argentina - unclaimed   ,   35   ,   
Firanj - unclaimed   ,   20   ,   
Egypt - unclaimed   ,   20   ,   
Siam - unclaimed    ,   6   ,   
Persia - unclaimed   ,   10   ,   
New Zion - unclaimed   ,   8   ,   
Romania - unclaimed   ,   8   ,   
Nigeria - unclaimed   ,   6.5   ,   
Malgas - unclaimed   ,   4.5   ,   
total   ,   1897.4   ,   

Now as I understand it the oil wells of Persia and Mexico have been brought online about 10 years early.  Also the world is far more industrialized than historic I suspect.  So let's use the 1914 production numbers for the world.

So we are looking a total world production 407,544,000 barrels per year of oil.  Since IC is our primary method of expressing industrialization we have 214,790 barrels of oil per IC in the game.  So how about we call 1 unit of petroleum is equal to 100,000 barrels of oil, because of the half year economics.    With a world production of 2037.72 N3 units of oil per half.  We can adjust this as we see fit I figure; round it down to 2000 units or 1900 to match the total number of IC in the game.  Or change the total number of units in the game to something smaller like 950 or 190 and just adjust the effectiveness of the Oil to match the new ratio.

The next question is how important is oil to our economies?

The US Census has a partial answer to that question.  Series S 15-24, on page 9 of the PDF. 

http://www2.census.gov/prod2/statcomp/documents/CT1970p2-06.pdf

Here is the main page the documents can be found on....

http://www.census.gov/prod/www/abs/statab.html

If you look through them you can find all sorts of interesting stuff like the size of the US Merchant marine over time.  At anyrate...

I pulled the table out that covers 1900-1945 for energy.  The numbers are cost in terms of 1969 dollars.

Here is a GIF of what I pulled out.

http://mysite.verizon.net/mtrohde/Iberia/Oil/US-Energy-Source-1900-1945.GIF

Between 1900 and 1945 Oil / Gas is going to climb from 5% to 60% of the total US energy budget. I think its clear why the world supply of oil doubles every decade or so.  Again this is in terms of dollars and not energy units or barrels of oil but money spent on it.  The US total Energy budget between 1900 and 1945 increased by about 370%.  Also consider that world production of oil jumps between 1900 and 1940 by 1441%.  Of course I have no matching info for the rest of the world but as a yard stick I think we can call it close enough that oil quickly and rapidly takes an important place in the scheme of things.   (See up thread for the oil numbers)

As a rough over view the progression is.

1905 10.8%
1910 13.1%
1915 17.7%
1920 27.1%
1925 38.7%
1930 44.3%
1935 50.9%
1940 56.1%

Now we have a couple of issues to think about in the game. 

1)   Do we want to care about this at all?
2)   If we do want to consider this how much?
3)   Also how much do we want to be bound by historic numbers in terms of effect on economy and oil production numbers? 

I suggest that we should care about points 1 & 2.  N3 is primarily a naval game and trade / blockades are very important considerations; both of which take place on the sea.  As to 3 since people have been operating off the roughly historic for roleplaying if for no other reason we should use the historic locations and numbers as a baseline.  In terms of our future we really wouldn't know were new fields of oil would be found so we should add a certain element of uncertainty to things.  We have radically altered geography and world history is there really a need for oil to be found only in the historic places?   


Oil Tree's

Economic
--Primitive Oil Economy, 1860
---- Kerosene refining
--Dated Oil Economy, 1895
----IC need  1 unit of oil per half otherwise they suffer a 5% penalty
--Basic Oil Economy, 1910
----Every 5 IC provided with oil (10 units) produces $1 extra.
--Improved Oil Economy, 1925
----Every 5 IC provided with oil (15 units) produces $1.5 extra.
--Advanced Oil Economy, 1940
----Every 5 IC provided with oil (20 units) produces $2 extra.
--Futuristic Oil Economy, 1955
---- Every 5 IC provided with oil (25 units) produces $2.5 extra.

Some considerations with a 1,900 N3 oil production per half right now oil is "worth" about 1,900 * .05 = $95 to the world economy right now.  At the same time why would I pay the full 5% for oil?  All I am doing is giving the money to someone else at that point I might as well just eat the loss and call it even.  I figure we would see mid point worked out between buyer and sellers.  So Iberia with its 51.5 IC would need to buy 51.5 units of oil to run them or I loose $2.575 a half in economy so if I pay $1.2875 I would break even for example.  I expect that prices would less than that, about $0.0125 to $0.025 per unit of oil ( is what I am going to guess) or $0.64375 to $1.2875 to run the Iberian economy.  But as the higher Oil Economy techs come on line it would become more valuable in terms of its effect on our economies.  The 1910 tech would double the amount of oil Iberia needs  per half to 103 units.  At the same time that oil would now mean $12.875 per half to my economy.  Driving up the price I would be willing to pay for it.  For the world economy if everyone had the 1910 economic tech it would worth $475 to the world economy and shoot up from there on out.


Exploration
--Seepage recovery, 1840
--Oil Well, 1860
----Builds oil well, cost to be dependant
--Improved Oil exploration (exposed anticlines), 1905
----Effect dependant upon whether historic or unhistorical oil fields in play
--Scientific based Oil Exploration (core samples, better maps, etc), 1915
----Effect dependant upon whether historic or unhistorical oil fields in play
--Deep Oil Well Exploration, 1925
----Effect dependant upon whether historic or unhistorical oil fields in play
-- Geophysics (seismic data for mapping sub surface strata), 1930
----Effect dependant upon whether historic or unhistorical oil fields in play
--Data re-analysis, 1940
----Effect dependant upon whether historic or unhistorical oil fields in play

Other
--Internal Combustion Tree Opens, 1895
--Oil Fired Boilers, 1906
----We need some type of bunkerage into barrels of oil.  1 barrel of oil (us measure) = 42 gallons.  No. 6 fuel oil is basically Bunker C and that has a density of 7.95 lbs per gallon so we are looking at 333.9 lbs per barrel.  Bunkerage for spring ship what type of ton is that?  I assume the Washington Treaty ton of 2240 lbs.  So that's 6.7 barrels per ton of bunkerage.  Which comes out to 14925 tons per N3 unit of oil, lets round up to 15,0000.  Anyone have any type of guess as to what type of usage rates we would be looking at for the various ready states?   

http://mysite.verizon.net/mtrohde/Iberia/Oil/fuel-properties.GIF

Well I have sorta run out of steam at this point.  If people could let me know what they think.

Michael

[Borys]

My head is steaming out da ears ...

[miketr]

As I said I am stuck in bed with limited options as to what to do.  I can read and type with my laptop but many of my games are out.  So yah I went a little nuts with the above...

Michael

[Borys]

Ahoj!
You did a great job, but ATM my feeling is that it is too detailed.
Hmm, I am mulling over your idea that oil might not necessarily where in OTL. This would make land grabbing more interesting, and would remove even subconsious influence of oil deposits over our play.
Maybe Maoria is awash with oil? Swiss Home Islands? Sicily? Madagascar?

Borys

[miketr]

For changes I think it should be for future strikes.  As clearly people are expecting current oil supplies to be in certain places.  Also if people don't want to bother with it they could stay at the "Primitive Oil Economy, 1860".  With coal being king in their nation, I would expect that China and India odds are fit that bill well into the 20th century to be honest.

Also I asked this before but who doesn't use excel for their economics?  If its most people figuring oil useage should be an easy thing.  Other than ships as I have no idea as to what to set there useage rate at for the different readiness states.

Michael

[Borys]

Ahoj!
At least three board members will skin you alive with rusty spoons for suggesting we use Excel (a cross between magic and rocket science) for anything.

Borys

[Korpen]

Ahoj!
At least three board members will skin you alive with rusty spoons for suggesting we use Excel (a cross between magic and rocket science) for anything.

Borys

My god, I had no idea rocket science was THAT easy!

[Ithekro]

It has been a while since rocket science was the top science.

[Borys]

Ahoj!
At least three board members will skin you alive with rusty spoons for suggesting we use Excel (a cross between magic and rocket science) for anything.

Borys

My god, I had no idea rocket science was THAT easy!

IC
Has dealings with the Devil! Burn the Blasphemer!

[swamphen]

At least three board members will skin you alive with rusty spoons for suggesting we use Excel (a cross between magic and rocket science) for anything.

...therefore I'll have to use a rusty butter knife instead.  :D

Head is swimming from the math, but I'll try to crunch through Mike's musings again later, when my nose isn't swimming either. *snnnnnifff!*

Anyway, there is oil somewhere in Zeelandia/Brandenburgia - I've been assuming that (1) it's in the Northeast of the island continent, and (2) it isn't economically worth developing yet.

[miketr]

Break down of oil production per half by location assuming... OP... Oil Point? = 100,000 barrels

Grand Total = 1,900
USA = 1,235
--Pennsylvania / NY = 58
--W Virginia / Kentucky = 72
--Ohio / Indiana = 71
--Illinois = 195
--Mid-Continent = 313
--Rocky Mountain = 2
--California = 431
--Texas / Louisiana =  93
Russia = 305
--90% + /- Baku rest caucasus
Rumania = 60
Galacia = 40
East Indies = 60
Burma = 40
Japan = 20
--Honshu = 20
Mexico = 120
Persia = 20

Break down of oil production per half by location assuming if 1 OP = 500,000 barrels

Grand Total = 380
USA = 247
--Pennsylvania / NY = 12
--W Virginia / Kentucky = 14
--Ohio / Indiana = 14
--Illinois = 39
--Mid-Continent = 63
--Rocky Mountain = 0.5
--California = 86
--Texas / Louisiana =  18.5
Russia = 61
--90% + /- Baku rest caucasus
Rumania = 12
Galacia = 8
East Indies = 12
Burma = 8
Japan = 4
--Honshu = 4
Mexico = 24
Persia = 4

I will get around to see where the Mexican fields are some are in the north and some are in the yucatan peninsula it seems.

Yes I am still stuck in bed...  I found my copy of CivII maybe that will kill time more effectively.

Michael

[Carthaginian]

YAY!!!

North Mexico means more oil for ME!!!

[The Rock Doctor]

The info is very interesting.

My primary concern with introducing too much oil-related work is that we'd probably also need to do this for a few other key items to really be fair:  coal, iron, foodstuffs.  Things would get a bit complicated; while I can handle it, to a point, it may be easier for all concerned to just specify who your supplier is and let the mods work out the effects of an embargo.

I had spoken to the Mods about the notion of an "industrialization" tech that would bump up a nation's BP output - though I had based my premise on the introduction of mass-production and assembly lines rather than introduction of oil into the economy. 

On location - the geologist in me would go nuts seeing oil pools move around but I survived the redrawing of the original map.  I'd be content to have the mods determine where oil might be located in new or re-arranged parts of the map, and let them make a call on when historical fields come into production. 

I reckon that if a player is seeking to take on territory that will yield oil in the future, he should have to be able to provide some kind of rational basis for the acquisition in 1908 ("Cheap labor", "Iron", or whatever).  If he fails to do so, the mods should make it difficult for that player to retain the territory...