Gran Colombia, H1/08

[Carthaginian]

It appears that Gran Colombia has some rather harsh anti-discrimination laws... ;)

[Borys]

Muy bueno

[P3D]

I liked it. One of the best N-verse stories so far...

[Borys]

Ahoj!
And Rosenenblumenthalovich does just roll of the tongue, doesn't it?
:)
It's from Asterix in the Middle East, if you want to know.
Borys

[Borys]

It appears that Gran Colombia has some rather harsh anti-discrimination laws... ;)

It is not an "anti-discrimination" Law.
It is "intereference in free market".
Kaiser Stefan likes.

Borys

[The Rock Doctor]

Flashback...

2 April 1908:  Cartagena

"Cardinal Rodriguez is here for his appointment, Senor President", Rey's secretary reported.

"Send him in...in ten minutes", Rey replied.  "I'm busy at the moment", he added, speaking truthfully if one considered completion of La Prensa Nacional's daily crossword puzzle to be a presidential responsibility.

In due course, Cardinal Juan Rodriguez was ushered into his office, and quickly noticed the crossword perched atop a pile of papers on one corner of the presidential desk.  Gran Colombia's foremost Man of God sniffed and sat down.

"Cardinal", Rey greeted him.

"El Presidente", Rodriguez responded in kind.  "I am calling upon you today to advise you on a crisis that requires your intervention."

"I thought we had an understanding on the Protestants' standing here?"

"That is not at all what I mean", the Cardinal said.  "No, Sir.  I am, in fact, speaking in their defence.  I trust you are abreast of developments in the Pacific?"

"Of course", Rey confirmed.

"Then you're aware of the current terms of peace being discussed, including your own government's proposal."

"Yes", Rey agreed once more, making a note to find out why the Cardinal would know this.  "Why do you ask?"

"Your proposal would see good, God-fearing men and women placed under the thumb of heathens.  It is a prospect the Church can not stomach."

"Wait - what?"

The Cardinal sighed theatrically.  "You propose, as part of your peace proposal, that Japan gain control of some Swiss lands.  The Japanese are heathens, and while the Swiss may be Protestant, they're still God-fearing.  Just a little misguided."  When Rey did not immediately respond, the Cardinal added, "It's morally unacceptable, my son."

"I can honestly say this never occurred to me", Rey replied after a few seconds of thought.

"I'm not surprised - this is another example of the need for spiritual guidance within your cabinet", Rodriguez proclaimed. 

"Let's not go there right now", the President suggested.  "Now, look, it seems my proposal has been replaced by a Rohirrim proposal that doesn't do anything of the sort...I think.  There's no need to fret."

"I have a responsibility to all God's children", the Cardinal remarked, "Not merely those residing within our republic.  We must ensure that no heathen is given the opportunity to oppress worshippers of the Lord, even if it means intervening in the sinful struggle to the west."

"I'll take that under advisement", Rey said.

"I hope that you do", the Cardinal said, and he stood and left.

Not two minute later, the secretary cracked the door open and poke his head through the opening.  "Senor President?  Manuel de Soto inquires into your availability for a few minutes."

Rey's eyes flicked to the grandfather clock on the wall to his right.  "Okay."

de Soto was a younger brother to his own uncle Sebastien, and managed that family's rather subtantial private sector activities.  Overweight, with a florid expression, he shuffled into the office and did not sit down.  "El Presidente, thank you for seeing me.  I wanted to confirm whether the rumors are true about an embargo."

Rey's eyes rose.  "An embargo?  Against whom?"

"This depends on who I ask.  Some say the Swiss, others the Alliance.  Frankly, stopping trade with either side is going to hurt our economy.  We export foodstuffs, rubber, metals, finished goods, and other products to destinations all over the Pacific, and to Alliance colonies on the continent and even Europe.  The exports are worth millions of Bolivars, and keep thousands at work, earning livings for their themselves and their dependents.  I urge you not to take any rashaction that would hurt our economy or cause job cuts."

"I think you've been mis-informed", Rey replied.  "I have no plans to introduce an embargo of any kind."

"Against either side?"

"Against either side", Rey echoed.  "Neither side is without fault, and there is nothing to gain from taking sides in a trade action.   If they can come to terms, that's nice.  If not, we'll continue to sell them non-military goods while their militaries smash themselves together."

"That's very reassuring", Manuel said.  "I won't take up any more of your time then.  Please pass my regards to your mother, and to your lovely wife."

"I'll do that", Rey replied.  The businessman bowed slightly and took his leave.  Rey looked over to the clock and waited.  The door soon opened and his secretary's head again appeared in the opening.  "Send him in", Rey ordered, without waiting for man to speak.

Sir Edmund Fitzroy, Minister of Jamaican Affairs, entered, said, "Good morning", and took the seat previously warmed by the Cardinal.

"Edmund.  You said you wanted a word."

"I did, thank you", Fitzroy replied.  "I wanted to address a rumor going around."

"About embargoes?  Or something different?", Rey asked.

"Who said anything about an embargo?  No - there are rumors that Gran Colombia will be intervening in the war on the Swiss side - though no two people can agree on the form of that intervention.  Is there any truth in this?"

Rey shook his head.  "Why would we?  We're on good terms with most of the Alliance.  I've had a few people argue that the Middle Kingdom needs to be checked before it gets too powerful, but I personally am not too concerned about that just yet.  The French and the Alliance can deal with that; they share the same side of the ocean."

"That's good", Fitzroy said.  "I think you'd be surprised at just how much opposition there would be to a pro-Swiss intervention in my part of the world."

"Because of Montego Bay?"

"And Cromwell.  There's grudging acceptance that your deal with them kept things from getting worse, but the average man on the street would have been delighted if you'd had all those Swiss businessmen shot.  They cost us a lot of misery - and you'd be made aware of that if you moved now to help them out."

"I'm not really surprised at this", Rey said.  "Hell, Ricardo told me a few weeks ago that he'd turned down a request to issue a letter of marquee to one of the Jamaican Contingent's cruisers - they wanted to go raid Swiss shipping under the Island Commonwealth ensign.  So I'm not surprised that you tell me this - just bear in mind that I make my decisions with the whole of the nation in mind, not Jamaica."

"I understand that", Fitzroy said.

"That being said, my decision right now is to do nothing, and I can't say that this morning has done anything to change that."

"I appreciate the clarification", Fitzroy replied, on his way to the door.

Alone again, Rey looked to the clock and reached for the crossword.  "Maybe I can finish this damned thing before Ricardo starts bending my ear about Bavarian shipyards again", he murmured, picking up his pencil.

[Borys]

Gasp!
So the rumours of Gra Colombians' designs on Triest are true!
TO ARMS!

[The Rock Doctor]

"All your shipyard are belong to us."

[maddox]

A weary person in Paris is counting how many slips France can afford in Bavaria.

[The Rock Doctor]

Flashback:

26 April 1908:  Esmeraldas

The casual observer would have thought the scene to be utterly chaotic, and to a degree, he'd have been correct.  Very little attention was being made towards organized loading of the freighter or the two passenger ships - so long as everything got aboard one of them, there would be ample time to inventory where it all was on the cruise west.

A formation of troops stood in order a short distance from the commotion.  The Second Regiment of the Tenth Infantry Division, V Corps waited patiently, with full kit, while the Colonel ran through a short speech about serving the national interest abroad.  Only the senior officers and NCOs actually knew where they were bound, and they weren't yet talking.

Half a mile away, the armored cruiser Paladin was similarly engaged in re-coaling, her magazines already being loaded with warshots as a result of her (abruptly cancelled) patrol duties.  The scene was more orderly, but Paladin's captain was fuming that he'd be operating solo - the only protected cruiser with sufficient range to keep pace with him, Bucaramanga, was several days from being ready to sail and would be hard-pressed to catch up with him.  He'd have to ride herd on these requisitioned civvie tubs himself, instead of getting somebody smaller to do it.  Cursing, he watched as the last of six crates was carried aboard the cruiser, where they would be stowed under guard in his office.

26 April 1908:  Avarua

Similar chaos on a lesser scale was taking place just off the administrative centre of the Cook Islands.  The tender Malachite was winching up the last of her boats as the infantry stowed their gear; Capitan de Corbeta San Martino watched from the bridge as the patrol sloop Lerida raised her anchor and began to inch forward.

"Another bold adventure in the name of the Republic", he murmured.

[The Rock Doctor]

To:  Defence Minister Ricardo Alizandro
From:  Policy and Analysis, Defence Ministry

Sir,

As directed, we have updated the Threat Matrix in light of recent global events.  It is presented below for your review.

For significant world powers, as well as all regional powers regardless of size, we review five possible triggers for conflict and assign probabilities to each based on current events and policy.  The identified triggers are:

A)  Territorial - a dispute over existing borders, or the possibility of the foreign power or ourselves making a play for territorial gains to the detriment of the other party.

B)  Moral - a dispute over conduct by one party that contradicts the moral or religious sensibilities of the other party.

C)  Economic - actions by one party that place the other party at an economic disadvantage

D)  Natural Antipathy - where established dislike and mis-trust leads one party to assign fault or blame to another for events that are in fact unrelated.

E)  Diplomatic - where international agreements require one party to take action against the other, usually as a result of a military alliance.  Agreements deterring action against another party, such as non-aggression pacts, are also accounted for.

Our scale of probabilities is:

1)  The powers are currently at war as a result of the trigger.

2)  The trigger could be cause for war if one or the other party acts upon it

3)  The trigger is a source of friction between parties and allows for future escalation

4)  The trigger is a conceivable, but highly unlikely, source of conflict between parties

5)  The trigger is not a source of potential conflict between parties.  Scores of five are usually only assigned where we have active cooperation or diplomatic ties with a nation.

The matrix is as follows:

Regional Powers:

Nation	Territorial	Moral	Economic	Natural Antipathy	Diplomatic
Argentina	3	4	4	4	4
CSA	3	4	4	4	4
France	4	4	4	4	4
Iberia	4	4	4	4	5
Mesoamerica	3	3	4	3	4
Netherlands	4	4	4	4	4
Peru	3	3	4	4	4
Rohan	4	4	4	4	4

Note that we did contemplate assigning a 3 to the CSA antipathy rating, as a consequence of the Haiti transaction, but felt the more conservative 4 to be appropriate.

Global Powers:

Nation	Territorial	Moral	Economic	Natural Antipathy	Diplomatic
DKB	4	4	5	4	4
Hapsburgs	4	4	4	4	4
Japan	4	4	4	4	4
Middle Kingdom	4	4	4	4	4
New Switzerland	4	4	4	3	4
Orange	4	4	4	4	4
UNK	4	4	4	4	4

Nations which do not appear, such as Bavaria, can be assigned straight fours, and are omitted due to a lack of interaction with that state.

Note that we did contemplate assigning a 5 to the Hapsburgs in the diplomatic category, given some recent communications between governments, but have chosen to retain the 4 at this time.

Analysis

It is not unexpected that the Matrix concludes that conflicts are more likely with regional powers than with global powers.  There is more interplay between states; and the matrix scores the "lack of conflict" the same as "presence of friendship".

The Matrix indicates that Gran Colombia should plan around the possibility of conflict with the following, where two or more triggers are assigned probabilities of 2 or 3.  Happily, the number of states meeting this criterion has been halved since 1906:

1)  Mesoamerica remains a wildcard, with little information available on the state's political evolution over the past twelve months and suspected support for pirate activity in the Caribbean.  Concern over this nation's status is alleviated by the buffer offered on land by foreign canal concerns and Rohirrim occupation, and the likely common ground we would find with other Caribbean states in dealing with a rogue Mesoamerican state.

2)  Peru's political evolution, following the death of Agrival Mars, remains unclear.  There is a possibility that our acquisition of Coquimbo may fuel Peruvian speculation of adventuring at their expense and a backlash against us.  If this were the case, there is no reason to think we would have allies in such a conflict, and, indeed, might find the Peruvians looking for help of their own.

We are no longer recommending planning for the possibility of conflict with France.  France has been disengaging from the Caribbean, and relations with the current government are generally satisfactory.  Barring a sudden change in policy from either government, we would not expect this to change.

We are no longer recommending planning for the possibility of conflict with New Switzerland.  Although natural antipathy towards the Swiss remains a factor amongst our Jamaican population, the greatest source of concern we previously noted - the return of Swiss "contractors" - happened almost without notice from Phoenix.  It is possible that the Swiss may choose to raise this issue in the future, but they will first have to survive their current war as a major power, a prospect which we rate as chancy at best.  We are, in fact, recommending that contigency planning be initiated to examine the possibility of occupying or annexing additional Swiss territory in the event of a catastrophic Swiss loss, in conjunction with a policy analysis on whether this course of action would be less undesireable than their occupation by other powers.

Relations with Iberia have improved significantly in recent years, and the two states are finding some common ground on diplomatic and economic issues.  Given our mutual heritage and cultural commonalities, we believe it is worth examining the possibility of setting aside Gran Colombian precedent and seeking a pro-active alliance with the Iberian Empire.

We note that Gran Colombia's recent spate of territorial acquisition has created friction with the Confederated States of America, and will likely cause concern amongst other powers including Argentina.  If this trend continues, we may find that relations with either state or others will suffer, creating problems for Gran Colombia that are, in the case of the CSA particularly undesireable.  We recommend that diplomatic measures be taken to shore up our relations with the CSA and other nations with which we either desire peaceful relations or at least do not desire hostile relations.

[Carthaginian]

swish
"Ahhhhhhhh"

That is the sound of every brow in the Forigen Affairs Department in Richmond being wiped at the same time... ;)

[The Rock Doctor]

"Did you hear that?  I think somebody leaked the Threat Matrix."

Were you expecting something worse?

[Carthaginian]

"Did you hear that?  I think somebody leaked the Threat Matrix."

Were you expecting something worse?

Not expecting, but definately fearing.
Hope for the best, plan for the worst, and expect the unexpected. ;)

[The Rock Doctor]

In late April, following confirmation that President Alizandro will be attending the double nuptials in Prag in July, the Gran Colombian executive office contacts it equivalents in Europe and inquires as to whether or not they should schedule a few days for President Alizandro to stop, visit, and meet each European office's respective president/sovereign/leader...